earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The phase never really happens on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam= weak phase pushes everything to the east. Nothing doing there, and the trough is not as sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sorry I had the wrong image--I just corrected the second plot above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like Mt. Holly is going with 2-4" for this one. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I would not trust anything at this point when you have a more progressive model showing a much further N & W scenario. If you stop and think about it..a more progressive model should be further to the SE then the rest of guidance. The fact that it is more NW ..brings a big red flag up to the more south and east guidance... I know thats not the popular thinking on this forum but it has been the factor that has been winning out all season long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like Mt. Holly is going with 2-4" for this one. Seems reasonable. Looks like the NAM would be 2-4" - it's really not much worse than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like the nam is going with .2-.25 for the phl area. With cold temps, ill take 2-4 of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 at this point, 2-4 even seems high no? there is no model showing more, unless i am mistaken, and many are showing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like the nam is going with .2-.25 for the phl area. With cold temps, ill take 2-4 of powder. SOLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I would not trust anything at this point when you have a more progressive model showing a much further N & W scenario. If you stop and think about it..a more progressive model should be further to the SE then the rest of guidance. The fact that it is more NW ..brings a big red flag up to the more south and east guidance... I know thats not the popular thinking on this forum but it has been the factor that has been winning out all season long... Which model is showing it much fruther N & W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Now I'm just hoping to see 1-3" from this one. It's going to be a lot harder getting a significant snow without a strong block in place. The prognosis for this storm looks very La Nina-ish with small amounts in a highly progressive flow. There's not much energy to tap into so we get only a couple of inches. Hopefully we see something bigger next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Which model is showing it much fruther N & W? CMC is--and it is still trying to simulate a nearly full phase. It will likely correct by 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Which model is showing it much fruther N & W? The model that has been showing the systems further north and west all season long and has had the correct idea from the start when it comes to verification at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 CMC is--and it is still trying to simulate a nearly full phase. It will likely correct by 0Z. Someone said the GGEM had 0.40" for NYC but what I'm seeing shows less than 0.30"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Upton is in near agreement...can't remember the last time I saw nearly identical snowfall maps between them and Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The model that has been showing the systems further north and west all season long and has had the correct idea from the start when it comes to verification at the end You're serious, aren't you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Someone said the GGEM had 0.40" for NYC but what I'm seeing shows less than 0.30"... I was just referring to what I thought the other poster was referencing regarding further N and W. I guess atown was referencing the NOGAPS--but the CMC is also further N and W with the track. I wasn't referencing the qpf shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know things don't look so good but with the way things have been going this season so far..nothing can be ruled out until the event is amongst us. The NAM has been all over the place with this one and I don't think it can be fully trusted. Let's see if the 18z GFS throws us a bone or a noose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z NAM looks anemic...I still think we all manage 2-4 out of this but I wish it would show more of a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't like the trends since 0z last night. We've gone from a 3-6" event to a 2-4" event. Hopefully it'll flip back to 3-6" when the northern stream s/w is fully sampled tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 CMC is--and it is still trying to simulate a nearly full phase. It will likely correct by 0Z. yes but still interesting to note that the 12z was rather dry, despite the phase. (or at least drier, anyway) note: all the precip for the PHL-NYC corridor on this map is from the "storm," although just outside of NYC it counts a few hundredths from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us1230.php This looks like a good analog right now and was coming up as a match yesterday...the models had fits with that event, they backed off majorly in the 24-48 hours before, so much the NWS dropped all advisories/watches only to have to put them back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know things don't look so good but with the way things have been going this season so far..nothing can be ruled out until the event is amongst us. The NAM has been all over the place with this one and I don't think it can be fully trusted. Let's see if the 18z GFS throws us a bone or a noose. This is a different case though. The phase with this system is key--and we can clearly track how well the intermountain W wave is currently being modeled. It is definitely digging the backside of the energy farther S/W, and the latest guidance is correcting for that via the satellite data ingested into the system. The NAM clearly shows a weaker phase as a result very early on--so the eventual track is no surprise. I hate to be the bringer of not so good news, but that is the likely reality with this event. 18Z GFS will either hold or may back off a tad too in lieu of the recent trends with the western wave. 18Z NAM is probably about as good as it gets--I think the NWS forecast seems about right with 2-4" for much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like it's just not happening with this system-energy looks very sheared out and never gets itself together until it's much too late and offshore. The one thing going for us is the cold temps and hopefully high ratios, but if the snow growth isn't good due to poor lift, those won't work out. Sometimes these kind of storms produce surprises, particularly if the lift is a little stronger than modeled and a band can sit overhead for a few hours. Otherwise though, looks like a minor event without any collaboration between streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Upton Snow will fall moderately for a time late Thursday night into Friday morning as the low passes just south...then near the benchmark. Middle and upper trough axis passes across the area Friday...with snow ending from west to east as the day progresses. Overall quantitative precipitation forecast seems to be on the order of 2/10 to a 1/3 of an inch. With this amount of quantitative precipitation forecast...feel a solid advisory event a good bet with a general 2 to 5 inches across the area. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is a different case though. The phase with this system is key--and we can clearly track how well the intermountain W wave is currently being modeled. Honestly, I think that's why everyone should've been very cautious about getting excited about this storm. It was always going to have to phase to be big. And phases are always tricky for the models to predict because a small difference in initial conditions can mean a lot in the end. The timing has to be *just* right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Honestly, I think that's why everyone should've been very cautious about getting excited about this storm. It was always going to have to phase to be big. And phases are always tricky for the models to predict because a small difference in initial conditions can mean a lot in the end. The timing has to be *just* right. Still a solid 2-4" snow event--depending on location of course--but definitely not the end of the world or a total whiff by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Honestly, I think that's why everyone should've been very cautious about getting excited about this storm. It was always going to have to phase to be big. And phases are always tricky for the models to predict because a small difference in initial conditions can mean a lot in the end. The timing has to be *just* right. So I guess this isn't happening? LOL http://http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/fp1_054.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Honestly, I think that's why everyone should've been very cautious about getting excited about this storm. It was always going to have to phase to be big. And phases are always tricky for the models to predict because a small difference in initial conditions can mean a lot in the end. The timing has to be *just* right. And with a phase, the low would have a high chance of hugging the coast because of no blocking up north, and bringing the coast rain or a mix. This is why I was never that excited either for this pattern. We really need that block or confluence up north to come back before we can start having major snow threats again. These kind of progressive Nina patterns that are northern stream dominated are very rarely fruitful for our area. When these systems do access moisture and energy, 9 times out of 10 they cut without a block in place. 2-4" or 3-5" would be a nice treat anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Honestly, I think that's why everyone should've been very cautious about getting excited about this storm. It was always going to have to phase to be big. And phases are always tricky for the models to predict because a small difference in initial conditions can mean a lot in the end. The timing has to be *just* right. If anyone is seriously expecting more than 2 or 3 inches out of this at this point they have problems. It's ok to hope for more, and yes there is still a chance for a few more inches out of this, but realistically no one should be EXPECTING a warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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