SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Anyone else notice the cyclogenesis on the 12z EC at hr 72 near West Palm Beach? Then it races that off to the northeast. Looks fairly amped up. It was near Charleston on the 00z and the energy was further north and east. The 12z holds it back longer. I jokingly mentioned the "near missed phase from 84-96" on some of the models last night between that disturbance and the one over the Lakes....its starting to become interesting to an extent...nothing likely will materialize outside of New england but it may surprise someone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Those who posted the EC QPF... are you sure about that 0.25" at NYC? I'm coming up with considerably less... more like 0.16". About 0.05" falls today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Those who posted the EC QPF... are you sure about that 0.25" at NYC? I'm coming up with considerably less... more like 0.16". About 0.05" falls today... ................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So its NAM, SREF, GGEM, REGM, GFS - all snowing 2 to 6" vers EC's dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 pretty well...little heavy on snow accums but nailed the temps and ice How did this thing do with yesterday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So its NAM, SREF, GGEM, REGM, GFS - all snowing 2 to 6" vers EC's dusting? EC has 1-3" for you depending on ratios... 0.13" QPF for Freehold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 15z SREF shifted even more south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EC has 1-3" for you depending on ratios... 0.13" QPF for Freehold. Yes, all I really want from this is an Elko 1.9" event to hit the 40" mark for the season. If it doesn't snow for the rest of the year thats fine as Dec 26 was pretty incredable here. Doesn't the SREF's have #1 QPF varification inside 48, over the EC? Not sure i'm buying the EC dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yes, all I really want from this is an Elko 1.9" event to hit the 40" mark for the season. If it doesn't snow for the rest of the year thats fine as Dec 26 was pretty incredable here. Doesn't the SREF's have #1 QPF varification inside 48, over the EC? Not sure i'm buying the EC dry? SREF just came in really dry for the area. Barely anyone sees .25 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EC has 1-3" for you depending on ratios... 0.13" QPF for Freehold. how much weight do give the euro's low QPF? it's been dry all along and is even drier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm guessing the 18Z NAM is going to show an extreme solution, its going to go ridiculously dry or wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Those who posted the EC QPF... are you sure about that 0.25" at NYC? I'm coming up with considerably less... more like 0.16". About 0.05" falls today... your right ray, i wasnt around for who gave the qpf. The accum qpf for nyc is in the .2-.25 range but that also had the rain in it from earlier today. Your number are correct. Phl i think on the euro is shy of .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm guessing the 18Z NAM is going to show an extreme solution, its going to go ridiculously dry or wet. Im hoping Wet like the 6Z..Seems like most guidance today is toning down Fridays storm..A couple days ago it went from a chance of 6-12 to now 3-6 with some guidance showing even less than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm guessing the 18Z NAM is going to show an extreme solution, its going to go ridiculously dry or wet. just looking at hr 18 on the nam, my bet is drier looks less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Im hoping Wet like the 6Z..Seems like most guidance today is toning down Fridays storm..A couple days ago it went from a chance of 6-12 to now 3-6 with some guidance showing even less than that.. Yeah we haven't been heading in the right direction over the past two or so days. Went from looking like heavy snow to now heavy flurries (some sarcasm). You guys still feeling comfortable with 3-6" given the toning down of precip and lack of/late phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah we haven't been heading in the right direction over the past two or so days. Went from looking like heavy snow to now heavy flurries (some sarcasm). You guys still feeling comfortable with 3-6" given the toning down of precip and lack of/late phasing? well remember, since its tracing further south, its going to be a lot colder. So if you get .25 qpg you can pull a 3-4 inch ordeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm guessing the 18Z NAM is going to show an extreme solution, its going to go ridiculously dry or wet. im guessing dry- that is the trend of most of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 just looking at hr 18 on the nam, my bet is drier looks less amplified. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not looking as good. Just eying this trough on WV across the intermountain W and it seems to be digging a decent amount--and RUC 500 hpa height fields hold a respectable amount of energy in the mountains. 18Z NAM is beginning to show a weaker/less full phase through 24 hours inline with the Euro/GFS. Probably won't be as good as 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not looking as good. Just eying this trough on WV across the intermountain W and it seems to be digging a decent amount--and RUC 500 hpa height fields hold a respectable amount of energy in the mountains. 18Z NAM is beginning to show a weaker/less full phase inline with the Euro/GFS. Probably won't be as good as 12Z NAM. Yep. The Euro nailed this from three days ago, holding the southern stream energy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 your right ray, i wasnt around for who gave the qpf. The accum qpf for nyc is in the .2-.25 range but that also had the rain in it from earlier today. Your number are correct. Phl i think on the euro is shy of .1 Yeah it looked like 0.07" or so to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 how much weight do give the euro's low QPF? it's been dry all along and is even drier now. EC does have a *slight* dry bias... so for now I'll keep my 3-6 because even with 0.15" good ratios might make the lower end of that range... If by tomorrow afternoon most of the guidance has shifted right into the EC QPF camp (less than 0.20") then I'll back off and go 2-4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yep. The Euro nailed this from three days ago, holding the southern stream energy back. The Euro actually didn't nail it either. It was on the other extreme and had the western trough cutting off over the 4 corners and basically nothing as the storm eventually ejected over the coastal waters. NAM and CMC were too progressive and had a perfect full phase. The eventual solution will likely be down the middle of the day 3-4 extremes with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the vorticity on the H500 map looks like a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro actually didn't nail it either. It was on the other extreme and had the western trough cutting off over the 4 corners and basically nothing as the storm eventually ejected over the coastal waters. NAM and CMC were too progressive and had a perfect full phase. The eventual solution will likely be down the middle of the day 3-4 extremes with this event. Really? I don't remember the Euro actually cutting off the western trough. Do you have any images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ETA barely shows .10 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ouch.. this run is kinda ugly..... for 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 heres the eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yep. The Euro nailed this from three days ago, holding the southern stream energy back. The Euro actually didn't nail it either. It was on the other extreme and had the western trough cutting off over the 4 corners and basically nothing as the storm eventually ejected over the coastal waters. NAM and CMC were too progressive and had a perfect full phase. The eventual solution will likely be down the middle of the day 3-4 extremes with this event. Here is a good illustration that the Euro was not all that great with the handling of this event either. These forecasts verify at the same time--Friday at 0Z. Note how poorly the Euro handled the western wave and how far west it was. ECM ensemble/operation 500 hpa height fields on the 0Z Sunday model run for forecast hour 120: ECM ensemble/operation 500 hpa height fields on the 0Z Wednesday (today) model run for forecast hour 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Fri is looking more like a period of Light snow in the morning than a Snowstorm at this point..My focus is already turned to next week as after getting 2 Double Digit storms I guess myself and many others are spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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