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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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Anyone else notice the cyclogenesis on the 12z EC at hr 72 near West Palm Beach? Then it races that off to the northeast. Looks fairly amped up. It was near Charleston on the 00z and the energy was further north and east. The 12z holds it back longer.

f72.gif

f96.gif

I jokingly mentioned the "near missed phase from 84-96" on some of the models last night between that disturbance and the one over the Lakes....its starting to become interesting to an extent...nothing likely will materialize outside of New england but it may surprise someone there.

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EC has 1-3" for you depending on ratios... 0.13" QPF for Freehold.

Yes, all I really want from this is an Elko 1.9" event to hit the 40" mark for the season. If it doesn't snow for the rest of the year thats fine as Dec 26 was pretty incredable here. Doesn't the SREF's have #1 QPF varification inside 48, over the EC? Not sure i'm buying the EC dry?

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Yes, all I really want from this is an Elko 1.9" event to hit the 40" mark for the season. If it doesn't snow for the rest of the year thats fine as Dec 26 was pretty incredable here. Doesn't the SREF's have #1 QPF varification inside 48, over the EC? Not sure i'm buying the EC dry?

SREF just came in really dry for the area. Barely anyone sees .25 QPF.

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Those who posted the EC QPF... are you sure about that 0.25" at NYC? I'm coming up with considerably less... more like 0.16". About 0.05" falls today...

your right ray, i wasnt around for who gave the qpf. The accum qpf for nyc is in the .2-.25 range but that also had the rain in it from earlier today. Your number are correct. Phl i think on the euro is shy of .1

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I'm guessing the 18Z NAM is going to show an extreme solution, its going to go ridiculously dry or wet.

Im hoping Wet like the 6Z..Seems like most guidance today is toning down Fridays storm..A couple days ago it went from a chance of 6-12 to now 3-6 with some guidance showing even less than that..

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Im hoping Wet like the 6Z..Seems like most guidance today is toning down Fridays storm..A couple days ago it went from a chance of 6-12 to now 3-6 with some guidance showing even less than that..

Yeah we haven't been heading in the right direction over the past two or so days. Went from looking like heavy snow to now heavy flurries (some sarcasm).

You guys still feeling comfortable with 3-6" given the toning down of precip and lack of/late phasing?

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Yeah we haven't been heading in the right direction over the past two or so days. Went from looking like heavy snow to now heavy flurries (some sarcasm).

You guys still feeling comfortable with 3-6" given the toning down of precip and lack of/late phasing?

well remember, since its tracing further south, its going to be a lot colder. So if you get .25 qpg you can pull a 3-4 inch ordeal.

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Not looking as good. Just eying this trough on WV across the intermountain W and it seems to be digging a decent amount--and RUC 500 hpa height fields hold a respectable amount of energy in the mountains. 18Z NAM is beginning to show a weaker/less full phase through 24 hours inline with the Euro/GFS. Probably won't be as good as 12Z NAM.

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Not looking as good. Just eying this trough on WV across the intermountain W and it seems to be digging a decent amount--and RUC 500 hpa height fields hold a respectable amount of energy in the mountains. 18Z NAM is beginning to show a weaker/less full phase inline with the Euro/GFS. Probably won't be as good as 12Z NAM.

Yep. The Euro nailed this from three days ago, holding the southern stream energy back.

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how much weight do give the euro's low QPF?

it's been dry all along and is even drier now.

EC does have a *slight* dry bias... so for now I'll keep my 3-6 because even with 0.15" good ratios might make the lower end of that range...

If by tomorrow afternoon most of the guidance has shifted right into the EC QPF camp (less than 0.20") then I'll back off and go 2-4"...

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Yep. The Euro nailed this from three days ago, holding the southern stream energy back.

The Euro actually didn't nail it either. It was on the other extreme and had the western trough cutting off over the 4 corners and basically nothing as the storm eventually ejected over the coastal waters. NAM and CMC were too progressive and had a perfect full phase. The eventual solution will likely be down the middle of the day 3-4 extremes with this event.

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The Euro actually didn't nail it either. It was on the other extreme and had the western trough cutting off over the 4 corners and basically nothing as the storm eventually ejected over the coastal waters. NAM and CMC were too progressive and had a perfect full phase. The eventual solution will likely be down the middle of the day 3-4 extremes with this event.

Really? I don't remember the Euro actually cutting off the western trough. Do you have any images?

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Yep. The Euro nailed this from three days ago, holding the southern stream energy back.

The Euro actually didn't nail it either. It was on the other extreme and had the western trough cutting off over the 4 corners and basically nothing as the storm eventually ejected over the coastal waters. NAM and CMC were too progressive and had a perfect full phase. The eventual solution will likely be down the middle of the day 3-4 extremes with this event.

Here is a good illustration that the Euro was not all that great with the handling of this event either. These forecasts verify at the same time--Friday at 0Z. Note how poorly the Euro handled the western wave and how far west it was.

ECM ensemble/operation 500 hpa height fields on the 0Z Sunday model run for forecast hour 120:

post-999-0-06321400-1295467901.gif

ECM ensemble/operation 500 hpa height fields on the 0Z Wednesday (today) model run for forecast hour 48:

post-999-0-69155000-1295468102.gif

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