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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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I like Jeff too he knows his stuff albeit he really has a snow model bias, Im just telling it came from that "other" board known for weenism

He was spot on with the last storm saying Most Models would Resemble the Nam in the End.. I remember Specifically one thing that stood out was when GFS was taking last storm way of coast he said it wouldn't happen and would be alot closer to the coast which of course he was right as I received 10 inches of Snow in 8 hrs..

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Euro still doesn't do much. 1-3" event for everybody.

The Euro has probably been right all along. Although I must say, this past storm was modeled to not give very much precip. at about this time frame when we were tracking it. I remember arguing with some folks that we'd have much more than just 0.5" of QPF like what was modeled. It seems to be the trend this winter that as we get closer to the event, the storm gets a bit juicier. I can definitely see the models showing a more wet solution as we get closer, as long as the storm is still there.

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The funny thing is, SG, all the TV mets (even the good ones like Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory) are talking about a ho-hum clipper dropping 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow that's out of here by Friday morning. No one is even mentioning a coastal possibility. They are also saying all snow as if it's set in stone, with temps in the mid 20s for highs.

My guess: They saw the EC has little and the GEM has a bomb, considered their reliability and went with the model they know is generally better. That may or may not be correct, but its a reasonable explanation for what they are forecasting.

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am19psu - thanks for not splitting the subforum or model/threat threads. If you don't mind, I'll throw in a couple of comments from my soapbox: these model/threat threads would be far less cluttered if 75% of the non-pros simply refrained from posting in them or at least greatly reduced how often they post in them. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I know that I know more about meteorology than most non-pros (or at least about the fundamentals, like momentum, heat and mass transfer, physical chemistry, numerical modeling and thermodynamics - a PhD in chem eng'g does that for you), yet I rarely post in the model/threat threads, since I know the pros (and some selected non-pros) still know a lot more than I do and I'd rather not clutter up these threads. If more non-pros would simply read more and post less in these threads, it would likely make the threads much better and easier to read. In addition, there are tons of people in NJ, like me, who I'm sure really appreciate seeing the whole region discussed, as it's geographically small and insights from one area often apply to the other, plus it avoids dilution of the precious pro met talent. As an aside, I don't mind the observation threads being separated, as I'm rarely looking for pro insight in those - it's much more about what's going on, which anyone is qualified to post about. Off the soapbox.

Well put.

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Not sure if I can post this but this is from another site from Jeff Berardelli, he says the NAM is most likely correct.

Forecast still on track guys. The NAM is likely correct with its track, setup, etc... I am not a big fan of the NAM past 48 hours but in this case I think it is correct.

Here's the deal... Typically with a 500mb set up like we are gonna have the end of this week you'd get a storm that develops too late and too far west and north. So you'd see a quick hit of snow to rain... a few hour storm and you get dry/warm sectored. But in this case there's a difference. Because the southern end of the trough has some vorticity/energy when it is in the Plains/MS Valley it initiates Surface low pressure down there. The energy is fairly equally distributed in the trough at that point and so you would argue for development of the suface low where the moisture is and also where you can the best diffluence aloft. That would be the lower MS valley give/take.

Now eventually the southern end of the trough weakens and the energy there just dissapates. The trough goes negative and the energy up north intensifies over PA then everything lifts NEward. That would normally be bad for you guys as explained above. But in this case the initail Sfc system is enough to get you to the coast and so the redevelopment occurs south of NYC along (not off) the MidAtl coast. So now you've confined warming to the immediate coast and you ensure enough moisture for atleast moderate snow from PHL northward. Of course interior New Eng sees the most.

In this situation it is likely the coast will see some change over to rain. But from NYC north this will likely be all snow & maybe a little sleet.

One thing... quick hiiter. In an out in 8 hours or so. No blocking and NYC will be on the southern end of the Mod snow as the storm develops a bit too late for major snow.

I hope I explained that so you get the picture. The balance here is key. Initail southern surface low counteracts the effects of the deepening 500mb trough up north. Gets you just far enough in time so that when the 500mb low up north decides to take over the storm is just too far south to go west of NYC and is also just far enough south for moderate precip in the NYC area. Bigger hit New Eng

Jeff Berardelli

Jeff B is amazing- i miss him around these parts.

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