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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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Haven't seen but heard Euro came in line with the rest of the models and increased us to .25"-.50"

Can't believe not one person with access is giving the pbp.

Euro is kind of boring. Looks like generally .15-.30 for most.

So which one is it? Or is one person looking at total QPF while the other subtracted out today ;)

If no one does before then, I'll give some point totals if people want in an hour.

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No, it really did not. It has less than the other models, more to the north for NY state and CT, there it is in line with what the other models show further to the south for NJ, NYC, LI, and PA. It has Eastern PA, NJ, NYC, and LI as .1-.25 and further to the north for NY State, just north of NYC, CT and all of New England as .25+

Haven't seen but heard Euro came in line with the rest of the models and increased us to .25"-.50"

Can't believe not one person with access is giving the pbp.

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NYC has two types of snow events, ones that start between 5pm-9pm and ones that start between 5am-9am...I swear they don't commence any other time....well, yeah they do, but most seem to cover those 8 hours.

I may be wrong, but I've noticed that seasonal trends often time include start/stop times. This year it seems to always be a roughly dusk to dawn event, at least back here in PA. In the 93-94 winter it seemed like nearly every storm started a couple hours before daybreak, and ended around 3-4 in the afternoon.

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Euro PBP is a privelage and not a right... You should appreciate the people who pay for it and give out the info.

i was gonna do it earlier, but im at work and had a firecall.

42, light snow into pa/wv,md.de... 1008 mb low down by delmarva/va beach.. very broad..

48 1004 low between AC and NY.. really broad....really light qpf throughout PA, NJ, NYC..

54 994-996mb low east of the cape... mod snows bos-cape.. light throughout sne...

SV maps hard to tell where the vorticity is exactly at h5, but it seems to continue to keep the southern wave dissassociated for a longer time(ala 12z nam, previous euro runs)

40 south get VERY light precip .01" to .1"

ttn to NYC .1"-.25"

BGM to NYC to BOS .25"-.50"..

Bos on the fringe of .5" plus

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I may be wrong, but I've noticed that seasonal trends often time include start/stop times. This year it seems to always be a roughly dusk to dawn event, at least back here in PA. In the 93-94 winter it seemed like nearly every storm started a couple hours before daybreak, and ended around 3-4 in the afternoon.

I agree, and that's what I really liked about that winter. It seems like when we get stuck in patterns (whether it be a type of storm or timing) it lasts.

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I thought Philly was .1-.25 and NYC was .25-.5 according to others here?

NYC on east was 0.25+ so by that you can infer that the 0.25 line is right over NYC. I haven't seen it myself yet. I didn't hear anyone say what was down near Philly other than "general 0.15-0.30"

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Is the compression of high ratio snow due mostly to gravity? Meaning if we are able to avoid melting and high winds, will it compress anyway?

Its due to all of the above, gravity, sublimation, melting. This lower ratio coastal stuff has a lot more staying power than high ratio snow such as most lake effect. For example, yesterdays snow cover here (I do 8AM obs) was 15". We've had about 32" of snow this season (half of which fell in last Wednesday's storm). Syracuse has had 105" and their snow cover yesterday was 13". Both Buffalo and Rochester report 6" snowcover. Maybe part of that is the because we had a recent big snowfall here, but not all.

Basically, an inch of qpf as snow is a precise amount of ice. 10" at 10:1 is three times as much frozen water as 10" at 30:1. It takes three times as much heat to melt.

By the way I hope you don't mind that I cited your website in a small weather article this afternoon. :snowman:

No problem. I always enjoy 15 minutes of fame :)

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Anyone else notice the cyclogenesis on the 12z EC at hr 72 near West Palm Beach? Then it races that off to the northeast. Looks fairly amped up. It was near Charleston on the 00z and the energy was further north and east. The 12z holds it back longer.

This was the shortwave the Euro was originally trying to blow up at 180 hours..when it had two big snowstorms in a row. Unfortunately with the pattern progression prior to it...it's no longer a possibility.

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Bah, I hate those because you dont actually get to see the snow fall during the daytime. Im waiting for a crippling daytime snowstorm with thunder and lightning and high winds-- high ratios, low ratios, I dont care lol.

I've never had a problem staying up at night (if its worth it) to watch it snow. :popcorn:

Last year though, one or two of those blizzards occurred during the day, and it was quite a sight.

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I've never had a problem staying up at night (if its worth it) to watch it snow. :popcorn:

Last year though, one or two of those blizzards occurred during the day, and it was quite a sight.

It was :thumbsup: The problem with late night snows is that it's hard to see anything outside of the immediate vicinity of your porch or deck light lol.

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I've never had a problem staying up at night (if its worth it) to watch it snow. :popcorn:

Last year though, one or two of those blizzards occurred during the day, and it was quite a sight.

I prefer night snow. I like being able to walk around on deserted streets as they become buried in the white stuff ;)

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<br />I prefer night snow.  I like being able to walk around on deserted streets as they become buried in the white stuff <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' /><br />
<br /><br /><br />

I am guessing your definition of buried there is 3 inches.

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