MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ARW looks pretty far south and relatively dry through 48 Those models are going to be really useful tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah I remember waiting for the radar to blossom in the late Jan storm and it seemingly took forever. Once it got going it was a nice quick hitting 5 to 10" event, similar to last week in a way The best parts of that event was the snow started with a RH of like 25%...it was something like 20/-3....also the bust posts were insane that night because while it started rapidly around 6-7pm it hit a wall after for awhile, sort of like the event that hit one week after it as well...03-04 never really had a comfortable storm when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The best parts of that event was the snow started with a RH of like 25%...it was something like 20/-3....also the bust posts were insane that night because while it started rapidly around 6-7pm it hit a wall after for awhile, sort of like the event that hit one week after it as well...03-04 never really had a comfortable storm when you think about it. Probably why NYC was the only really big I-95 city that had a great winter that year. I remember it fondly because for cold and snow December and January 2004 just cannot be beat for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Steve D is going with 4-8 for the NYC area. Henry M is going with 6+. obviously cut those in half....both of those guys are like the NAM are steroids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Future Cast Radar they show On Ch2 News has the storm starting by 4-6am and Ending between 11-1 in the afternoon..Definitely a quick mover but nice little snow Refresher Event. I was hoping for a bigger storm but seeing the Medium Range forecast is nice knowing another possible bigger event is around the corner.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 2003-04 - Not a bad winter west of philly...a litle above normal with 42" of snow Probably why NYC was the only really big I-95 city that had a great winter that year. I remember it fondly because for cold and snow December and January 2004 just cannot be beat for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yes. if high ratio snow is produced at 700 mb, it will still be high ratio unless: there is partial melting on the way down there is riming wind breaks up the dendrites thank you...im so sick and tired of seeing people predicting 20:1 ratios based on surface temps being 15 degrees....the most important area for ratios is in the snow growth regions at 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Latest Wxsim forecast off of the 12z GFS/NAM Snow arriving in the NW Philly burbs by midnight Heaviest snow at 3am with the temp at 22.9 Snow ends by 8am Total snow accumulation 3 or 4" Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 thank you...im so sick and tired of seeing people predicting 20:1 ratios based on surface temps being 15 degrees....the most important area for ratios is in the snow growth regions at 700mb Yeah, I've seen great ratios with temps just below freezing and crap ratios with temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Latest Wxsim forecast off of the 12z GFS/NAM Snow arriving in the NW Philly burbs by midnight Heaviest snow at 3am with the temp at 22.9 Snow ends by 8am Total snow accumulation 3 or 4" Paul www.chescowx.com Sounds good...I'm anticipating about the same here in Berks....love the WXsim forecasts that you share with us...usually pretty closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Futurecast http://esponline.myweather.net/interactiveradar/main.html?host=wbal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Latest Wxsim forecast off of the 12z GFS/NAM Snow arriving in the NW Philly burbs by midnight Heaviest snow at 3am with the temp at 22.9 Snow ends by 8am Total snow accumulation 3 or 4" Paul www.chescowx.com I think that sums it up perfectly. I think every model at 12z shows roughly 0.25-0.40 for the area. I'm glad its falling overnight too, should be done by just after daybreak and be ready to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Really? As compared to what? It shows max qpf of around .25 in many areas through 48 hrs, with a little more come. This is the same as all the other models. ARW looks pretty far south and relatively dry through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks!....been an excellent winter for the Philly burbs so far - if you like winter weather. Looks like plenty of more chances in the near future. Wxsim has single digit lows with a 4 for Monday morning and then snow arriving on Monday night Sounds good...I'm anticipating about the same here in Berks....love the WXsim forecasts that you share with us...usually pretty closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 great points about surface temps not affecting ratios.. to prove the point remember 2 weeks ago!! surface temps 31-33 across sw ct and 8-16" from the inverted trough with amazing ratios!!!!!!!! BTW i guess upton was right for MBY snow sticking to roads now moderate snow for 15 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How did this thing do with yesterday's storm? Latest Wxsim forecast off of the 12z GFS/NAM Snow arriving in the NW Philly burbs by midnight Heaviest snow at 3am with the temp at 22.9 Snow ends by 8am Total snow accumulation 3 or 4" Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think that sums it up perfectly. I think every model at 12z shows roughly 0.25-0.40 for the area. I'm glad its falling overnight too, should be done by just after daybreak and be ready to shovel. Bah, I hate those because you dont actually get to see the snow fall during the daytime. Im waiting for a crippling daytime snowstorm with thunder and lightning and high winds-- high ratios, low ratios, I dont care lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bah, I hate those because you dont actually get to see the snow fall during the daytime. Im waiting for a crippling daytime snowstorm with thunder and lightning and high winds-- high ratios, low ratios, I dont care lol. NYC has two types of snow events, ones that start between 5pm-9pm and ones that start between 5am-9am...I swear they don't commence any other time....well, yeah they do, but most seem to cover those 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 He's been very good overall this winter though...even in that event there were some places in his 6-12 zone over CT which did well and he nailed the event yesterday with a 1 inch or less forecast for the coast and had only 2-3 inch amounts even into areas quite a bit N&W were some people had as much as 3-5 or 4-7. To be honest, I didn't know who he was. That call created some controversy at the time, and I was just wondering if it's the same guy. If he has been very good this winter, I'll take your word on it. FWIW, I agree with him on this call for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NYC has two types of snow events, ones that start between 5pm-9pm and ones that start between 5am-9am...I swear they don't commence any other time....well, yeah they do, but most seem to cover those 8 hours. dec 26 2010....Snow commenced at about noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Is tombo or anyone else giving the PBP of the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'd rather have 5" at 10:1 than 8" at 30:1. The fluff looks nice until it settles down to nothing about 6 hours later. "Real" snow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'd rather have 5" at 10:1 than 8" at 30:1. The fluff looks nice until it settles down to nothing about 6 hours later. "Real" snow FTW. Is the compression of high ratio snow due mostly to gravity? Meaning if we are able to avoid melting and high winds, will it compress anyway? By the way I hope you don't mind that I cited your website in a small weather article this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'd rather have 5" at 10:1 than 8" at 30:1. The fluff looks nice until it settles down to nothing about 6 hours later. "Real" snow FTW. How about a Feb 1961 type of snow--- 25" at 10:1..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 He's been very good overall this winter though...even in that event there were some places in his 6-12 zone over CT which did well and he nailed the event yesterday with a 1 inch or less forecast for the coast and had only 2-3 inch amounts even into areas quite a bit N&W were some people had as much as 3-5 or 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It seemed like back in the 80s at least almost every event started at night and ended in the morning. Feb 83 and Jan 87 are the only two I remember starting during daylight hours and getting out of school early. NYC has two types of snow events, ones that start between 5pm-9pm and ones that start between 5am-9am...I swear they don't commence any other time....well, yeah they do, but most seem to cover those 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just got back from lunch and saw a billion reports. Let's try to keep the obs stuff in the obs thread and keep this one on topic about the Friday storm. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 dec 26 2010....Snow commenced at about noon I agree, but that would have been even better if it started at like 3 am lol. Actually, that started around 9:30 am for us. Two of my favorite daytime snowstorms are Dec 2003 (Day 1 with the low ratios was much prettier than Day 2 with the high ratios) and April 2003. And if you want to take it further back in time-- APRIL 1982 (which started around 3 am) and February 1994 (first event)-- both had thundersnow between 10 am and mid day or so with something like 3-4 inches of snow per hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 great points about surface temps not affecting ratios.. to prove the point remember 2 weeks ago!! surface temps 31-33 across sw ct and 8-16" from the inverted trough with amazing ratios!!!!!!!! BTW i guess upton was right for MBY snow sticking to roads now moderate snow for 15 minutes! Yeah I couldnt believe that panned out... was forecasting this morning as was like "what are they thinking" and they kept it in until 4PM. Great call by them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Haven't seen but heard Euro came in line with the rest of the models and increased us to .25"-.50" Can't believe not one person with access is giving the pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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