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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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yeah, i know this isn't the thread about it, but the gfs has jumped big time towards a big even around 160 hours. Several of its ensmebles were hinting at this yesterday and the OP really cleaned up its act today.

Its still disorganized at the surface but its H5 depiction is screaming potential.

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It looks like the GFS wants to give us a Miller A in the worst way but you can clearly see how the energy is being held back too long in the SW and the northern stream energy is outrunning it. What potential though. Good ridging out west also although a tad too west with the axis at the moment.

gfs_500_150s.gif

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I know its off topic but I saw a few posters commenting on the current precip. It started off as a light rain which has been ongoing for the past hour but it looks like its mixing with snow now here in Ramsey. I'm not sure what the temp is.

It's about 39* here in Montvale, so I'd guess it's right around here.

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XXL, MMU, EWR, TEB, LGA, HPN and CDW are reporting light rain... light snow at MGJ, MPO and SWF.

From the looks of radar there was also a brief mix in the northern part of Nassau County. Odd thing is, JFK has been 3 degrees colder than LGA all morning.

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12z GGEM is about 10mm for NYC for Friday. About .40"

I'm going with a wide 3-8 range now.....not a very easy call....the Euro/NAM/GFS are relatively flat while the GEM and RGEM are amped....my concern though is given a different setup than we've seen the GEM is exhibiting its bias for the first time this winter and the American models and Euro are dead on....at the same time I do not like the UKMET being as west as it has been either.

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I'm going with a wide 3-8 range now.....not a very easy call....the Euro/NAM/GFS are relatively flat while the GEM and RGEM are amped....my concern though is given a different setup than we've seen the GEM is exhibiting its bias for the first time this winter and the American models and Euro are dead on....at the same time I do not like the UKMET being as west as it has been either.

I think this is going to end up being a general 3-6" event and an easy forecast for a change.. all models will have a consensus tonight hopefully as the event will be 30 hours from starting for most of us.. im going to go 3-6" area wide first and final call

I agree with the way this is looking-- it doesnt look like there will be strong gradients anywhere..... basically 3-6/4-8 for everyone from philly to boston.

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Update from JB...to watch the "real arctic front" for where the snow ratios will be 20 or 30 to 1 into Friday AM. The ratios will develop north of where that boundary sets up...even though the surface low will move farther south. Overall he believes in that zone 0.25" will translate to 5 or 6" North of that boundary

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