Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what is up with current radar?? ive been in betwen 25-35 dbz echoes and nothing has fallen from sky?? temp went from 36 to 33.7 back up to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yeah, i know this isn't the thread about it, but the gfs has jumped big time towards a big even around 160 hours. Several of its ensmebles were hinting at this yesterday and the OP really cleaned up its act today. Its still disorganized at the surface but its H5 depiction is screaming potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 with next week's system, there is a consolidated wave coming down from Canada, however, it eventually splits apart into 2 pieces and doesn't keep the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS showing long duration with over running ahead of any slp that develops and then a coastal which tries to get organized. So awesome to track events every few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It looks like the GFS wants to give us a Miller A in the worst way but you can clearly see how the energy is being held back too long in the SW and the northern stream energy is outrunning it. What potential though. Good ridging out west also although a tad too west with the axis at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what is up with current radar?? ive been in betwen 25-35 dbz echoes and nothing has fallen from sky?? temp went from 36 to 33.7 back up to 36 same here, but very light rain falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 interesting to see the GFS show a nice NF/50/50 low and has some ridging coming in from the atlantic. Its more of an east based -NAO but the PAC amplification may save it from being suppressed. Nice setup with lots of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know its off topic but I saw a few posters commenting on the current precip. It started off as a light rain which has been ongoing for the past hour but it looks like its mixing with snow now here in Ramsey. I'm not sure what the temp is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 same here, but very light rain falling... weird oxc is reporting light snow. i think the 35 dbz are just big wet flakes being picked up on radar.. its probably just light snow all over and the big wet flakes are making it seem worse on radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is probably OT... but when can we expect temps to drop today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know its off topic but I saw a few posters commenting on the current precip. It started off as a light rain which has been ongoing for the past hour but it looks like its mixing with snow now here in Ramsey. I'm not sure what the temp is. It's about 39* here in Montvale, so I'd guess it's right around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is probably OT... but when can we expect temps to drop today? i dont think they drop until late /tonight tomorrow morning if these clouds hang on tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Should there be a separate thread for next week's threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 weird oxc is reporting light snow. i think the 35 dbz are just big wet flakes being picked up on radar.. its probably just light snow all over and the big wet flakes are making it seem worse on radar.. Its light rain where i am, 4 miles north of Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Guys keep the talk about that potential storm next week in the medium range thread or make a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what is up with current radar?? ive been in betwen 25-35 dbz echoes and nothing has fallen from sky?? temp went from 36 to 33.7 back up to 36 XXL, MMU, EWR, TEB, LGA, HPN and CDW are reporting light rain... light snow at MGJ, MPO and SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Oh ok thanx. That is weird because I am sitting at 34 degrees right now with a forecast low of 18. So your saying I probably wouldnt make it there. i dont think they drop until late /tonight tomorrow morning if these clouds hang on tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Next weeks event... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9459-threat-jan-25-28th-time-fram-possible-miller-a/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 XXL, MMU, EWR, TEB, LGA, HPN and CDW are reporting light rain... light snow at MGJ, MPO and SWF. From the looks of radar there was also a brief mix in the northern part of Nassau County. Odd thing is, JFK has been 3 degrees colder than LGA all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 From the looks of radar there was also a brief mix in the northern part of Nassau County. Odd thing is, JFK has been 3 degrees colder than LGA all morning. "Warm is LaGuardia" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean looks a little more tucked in. The QPF is the same results as the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GGEM is about 10mm for NYC for Friday. About .40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Oh ok thanx. That is weird because I am sitting at 34 degrees right now with a forecast low of 18. So your saying I probably wouldnt make it there. that 18 willl be at 630am tomorrow prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that 18 willl be at 630am tomorrow prob I'm near Chester NJ at work and the sky is clearing fast. Maybe the clouds won't hang on that much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 44.8°/39 with bright sunshine. bye bye snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GGEM is about 10mm for NYC for Friday. About .40" I'm going with a wide 3-8 range now.....not a very easy call....the Euro/NAM/GFS are relatively flat while the GEM and RGEM are amped....my concern though is given a different setup than we've seen the GEM is exhibiting its bias for the first time this winter and the American models and Euro are dead on....at the same time I do not like the UKMET being as west as it has been either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think this is going to end up being a general 3-6" event and an easy forecast for a change.. all models will have a consensus tonight hopefully as the event will be 30 hours from starting for most of us.. im going to go 3-6" area wide first and final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm going with a wide 3-8 range now.....not a very easy call....the Euro/NAM/GFS are relatively flat while the GEM and RGEM are amped....my concern though is given a different setup than we've seen the GEM is exhibiting its bias for the first time this winter and the American models and Euro are dead on....at the same time I do not like the UKMET being as west as it has been either. I think this is going to end up being a general 3-6" event and an easy forecast for a change.. all models will have a consensus tonight hopefully as the event will be 30 hours from starting for most of us.. im going to go 3-6" area wide first and final call I agree with the way this is looking-- it doesnt look like there will be strong gradients anywhere..... basically 3-6/4-8 for everyone from philly to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 uptons snowfall map scared me for a second as it should be up for friday because is less than 48 hours away.. but they have snow forecasted today for some reason.. i dont see how i get .5 to 1" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Update from JB...to watch the "real arctic front" for where the snow ratios will be 20 or 30 to 1 into Friday AM. The ratios will develop north of where that boundary sets up...even though the surface low will move farther south. Overall he believes in that zone 0.25" will translate to 5 or 6" North of that boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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