MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the 9z SREF shifted east. 0.25 QPF for the NYC area, RSM has 0.25-0.50 QPF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam running....... 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam running....... 24hr According to the NAM, on Thursday @ 12 noon the 540 line is north of PA? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 According to the NAM, on Thursday @ 12 noon the 540 line is north of PA? D look at 850mb....0c line in SVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 According to the NAM, on Thursday @ 12 noon the 540 line is north of PA? D Heights, not thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 According to the NAM, on Thursday @ 12 noon the 540 line is north of PA? D That's the 5400 h5 line, but to save space, it is measured in 540*DM*. Your thinking critical thickness 540 line which is on a different map. Hope this helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks all for the correction. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12 Z NAM jumped east again compared to its 6 Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Through 42, seems like euro. Southern stream lagging behind.?? On my iPhone, don't have best visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea, it is well east this time, however, there is still a fairly decent amount of QPF, so it's not entirely a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did this same thing virtually yesterday at 00z to come back more NW the next run... Would expect this to come back once again NW at 18 Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 .25"-.50" areawide on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 snowfall accum maps say 2-4 inches region wide.... not too shabby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 snowfall accum maps say 2-4 inches region wide.... not too shabby! not when Rainshadow posted verification scores, shows how overdone NAM qpf has been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did this same thing virtually yesterday at 00z to come back more NW the next run... Would expect this to come back once again NW at 18 Z... What has more merit though, 0z/12z runs or the 6z and 18z??? Seems to me the 0 and 12z runs match up well with the euro.?seeing as that the southern stream is coming into play later in the game, the northern s/w flexes it's muscles longer. Hence a colder, " drier" solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 not when Rainshadow posted verification scores, shows how overdone NAM qpf has been this winter. well... I agree that this might be the case, but it might be more pronounced in a system that is already bombing out while moving through our area.. The NAM QPF distribution isn't giving me a sense that these totals are too outlandish.. If I saw this surface depiction and upper level and it was trying to produce 6-12 inches, I'd be a little weary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The difference this run is a stronger kicker behind the system ... This probably results in the more eastern solution.. versus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks to me it doesn't fully phase the southern energy and instead leaves a piece behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM is a solid 2"-5" snowfall. People who expected 10" need to get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Precip shield on the NAM looks disorganized (lack of banding for our area) with generally light to moderate snows. I doubt we get more than 0.25-0.35 QPF but with good ratios of 12-1 or even 14-1 3-5" still looks pretty good. Someone would probably end up with 7" locally if a heavier band were to setup. The flip flopping of the model runs (especially less than 72 hrs out) has been something awfull this winter. With the last system if I remember correctly, it was the 06z NAM runs that kept showing the largest QPF followed by a major shift on the next run. Yesterday we saw that from 12z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Precip shield on the NAM looks disorganized (lack of banding for our area) with generally light to moderate snows. I doubt we get more than 0.25-0.35 QPF but with good ratios of 12-1 or even 14-1 3-5" still looks pretty good. Someone would probably end up with 7" locally if a heavier band were to setup. The flip flopping of the model runs (especially less than 72 hrs out) has been something awfull this winter. With the last system if I remember correctly, it was the 06z NAM runs that kept showing the largest QPF followed by a major shift on the next run. Yesterday we saw that from 12z to 18z. Euro and GFS, the 2 best models, have been very consistent with this light snow event. Never trust the NAM outside of 24 hours, for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe WNEP's Tom Clark was right last night when he forecasted snow showers for Thursday night and Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 little OT but I wonder if theres a stat that shows how many sub 990 lows have tracked threw the Gulf of Maine in the winter. cuz i swear, every map ive looked at this winter has some kind of wrapped up low in the Gulf of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe WNEP's Tom Clark was right last night when he forecasted snow showers for Thursday night and Friday morning. Tom has always been conservative with his snow predictions...he was hated by me as a child in Tamaqua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro and GFS, the 2 best models, have been very consistent with this light snow event. Never trust the NAM outside of 24 hours, for QPF. Yes your right about the GFS and Euro (for this event) but with the last few events the GFS has been horrible. In fact the GFS op was in many cases much further east and OTS than its own esemble means. I would say the overall confidence in particular model this winter has been below average. If anything, the EC and GFS ensemble means seem to be the most accurate so far. If we can get some development a tad further SW and if the trough could go negative a tad sooner we would be in business like the 1/18 12z nam indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What is causing this storm to shift further south? It is not like we have a big -NAO or -AO to force the storm track to the south. The PNA is positive and the NAO is near neutral. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What has more merit though, 0z/12z runs or the 6z and 18z??? Seems to me the 0 and 12z runs match up well with the euro.?seeing as that the southern stream is coming into play later in the game, the northern s/w flexes it's muscles longer. Hence a colder, " drier" solution What has more merit? IMO where the greatest thermal Gradient would actually be...majority of your storms this winter if not all..have tried to develop to far east..to only get tugged back more NW at the end...its the timing differences right now.. If you go back and look at hours 36 on the 6 Z NAM to 30 hrs on the 12 Z..You will see the 12 Z is slower and or further south at that time compared to its previous run, which effects the ending downstream result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NAM text for NYC crew: NYC: .30" - temps in the upper 20's LGA: .30" - temps in the upper 20's JFK: .29" - temps from 30-31.5 EWR: .33" - temps in the upper 20's With those temps in the city area, ratios will not be that high. I would go with 9-11 to 1 ratios or 2.5"-3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe WNEP's Tom Clark was right last night when he forecasted snow showers for Thursday night and Friday morning. Bolaris last night had 1-3" for Phila area and at the most 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bill Evans is going with 3-6 for the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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