earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That can't be right--it has 1-2" for LI. LOL..they get the term "clown" maps since they like to over-produce insane cutoffs of totals near the coast as well as insanely spread out contours of snowfall..note the huge area of 6+" on the clown map I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 LOL..they get the term "clown" maps since they like to over-produce insane cutoffs of totals near the coast as well as insanely spread out contours of snowfall..note the huge area of 6+" on the clown map I posted. Thanks--I thought they were called "clown" maps because of the awful color scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks--I thought they were called "clown" maps because of the awful color scheme. lol that or crayola map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That can't be right--it has 1-2" for LI. Of course not.. LI is the new Tug hill. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lol that or crayola map. Looks like a toddler busted out the 64 color crayon pack and went to town on their favorite coloring book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Of course not.. LI is the new Tug hill. lol It must be, with the last storm I noticed a lot of folks were scoffing at the 8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It looks nearly identical to me when you trace the height contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It looks nearly identical to me when you trace the height contours. yea when i looked at it more, i saw it was identical. The low way south of there through me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea when i looked at it more, i saw it was identical. The low way south of there threw me off. Those maps are so frustrating. They are literally 5x the size of my computer screen and I still can't make out what it's saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Those maps are so frustrating. They are literally 5x the size of my computer screen and I still can't make out what it's saying. Yeah they are horrific--worse than difax charts. Since it is the CMC though--I am usually in no hurry to see it anyways. I just wait for it to come out on Ewall for the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Higher resolution NAM-WRF graphics early this morning have a nice smile on my face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs time...lets see if we get a flip flop. Since nam went amplified, does gfs go less amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs time...lets see if we get a flip flop. Since nam went amplified, does gfs go less amplification I doubt it. GFS has been consistent with every major synoptic feature and has made small but subtle trackable changes without flip-flops. It either holds serve or continues to drop the hammer with that dynamic trop with small ticks N of the surface low. The GFS is so good for this very reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 buffkit spits out 10.6 in phl off 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html srefs individuals -- not much agreement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs looks pretty much the same so far maybe a hair less amplified through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Northern stream maybe a hair more aggressive..& the southern stream shortwave as a whole is a bit further southwest this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Gotta run to bed, but if you use the heights on the east coast as an indicator..this run could come in a hair south and east. That being said the shortwave coming in from the northern stream is stronger on this run. We shall see...I will be dreaming of a 988mb NAM-like snow bomb. Later dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 still looks like its a little less amplified through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah this won't be as good as 0Z with the western wave lagging back. BTW I am only through 30--where you guys getting maps so far ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah this won't be as good as 0Z with the western wave lagging back. BTW I am only through 30--where you guys getting maps so far ahead? stormvista, pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs is basically the same as 0z, rock steady. .25-.5 for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs is basically the same as 0z, rock steady. A hpa weaker or so and tad farther S. Honestly so small I wouldn't bother mentioning the changes since it could very well be noise/natural variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It seems again the more meso-scale models to an extent are starting to go juicier and stronger with the NAM outside of its 00Z run, the old ETA etc. and the other models less so....that has not failed yet this year, we'll see where it goes this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My guess is the GFS cold bias is coming into play on the 2nd storm, hence why it suppresses everything out to sea, because it erroneously drops the high way too far into the U.S. as opposed to the Euro and GEM, the GFS almost always plunges arctic highs too southerly and not enough easterly in the medium to long rage....I would not totally discount its scenario but generally when the GEM/Euro agree at this range and the GFS does not its usually wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My guess is the GFS cold bias is coming into play on the 2nd storm, hence why it suppresses everything out to sea, because it erroneously drops the high way too far into the U.S. as opposed to the Euro and GEM....I would not totally discount its scenario but generally when the GEM/Euro agree at this range and the GFS does not its usually wrong. Definitely something brewing in the Gulf Tuesday on the 6z GFS but is suppressed verbatim. I think that's a major storm threat for the area, and probably the next one to track after Friday's Nor'easter. Interesting that the models have now trended to bringing in a big cold shot early in the weekend, but then saving the true arctic air for after a clipper goes through. Certainly looks incredibly cold by Sunday, great airmass in place with the disturbance brewing down South: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Definitely something brewing in the Gulf Tuesday on the 6z GFS but is suppressed verbatim. I think that's a major storm threat for the area, and probably the next one to track after Friday's Nor'easter. Interesting that the models have now trended to bringing in a big cold shot early in the weekend, but then saving the true arctic air for after a clipper goes through. Certainly looks incredibly cold by Sunday, great airmass in place with the disturbance brewing down South: GFS lags a majority of the energy in the south-west .. and only sends a piece east. 0z gfs did not really do this.. nor do any other guidance really. Yes that 126 looks good down south... but after that it goes wacky with the upper levels. At least compared to early runs and its 0z ensembles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nothing like waking up to see that the NAM and GFS switched places again...hopefully 12z helps settle this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just trying to keep this in perspective, the nam qpf in the Mount Holly CWA has had a wet bias the past month (throughout the northeast coastal region, graphs posted below). The model has been good at showing the processes, but both the gfs and euro qpf have been verifying closer. That being said this still looks (IMO) like a borderline advisory to warning scenario for our cwa. All the players are in raob range so hopefully closer model consensus from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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