earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nice hit for everybody at 57 hours. 996 surface low off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Big UVV's still over the area at 57 hrs...more precip is still falling at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 3z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I wonder what form it will take here...town is at 32.9F. What's your dewpoint? Temp is 34 here via weatherbug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow...a big hit at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NJ shore (hello stephen turner) gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's your dewpoint? Temp is 34 here via weatherbug. I'm at 32.9/32...that's the closest station on Wunderground. I live at 350' in the woods so might be a bit cooler here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UVV's are still hammering NYC and LI at 60 hours with the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's the visual dudes...happy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NJ shore (hello stephen turner) gets crushed lol good ole steve turner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like .75+ Central NJ..PHL..TTN..Staten Island..S LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well, we got the NAM back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Poor Stephen Turner... But seriously, this looks like a very solid run down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea the nam is a nice hit for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 in before the NAM flip flops at 12z again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well, we got the NAM back. Really nice hit for NYC metro on the 6z NAM, looks as if it would be a high ratio snow too with 850s around -7C. Great storm, and some folks would approach a foot if the NAM verified verbatim, especially Central NJ (seasonal trend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Really nice hit for NYC metro on the 6z NAM, looks as if it would be a high ratio snow too with 850s around -7C. Great storm, and some folks would approach a foot if the NAM verified verbatim, especially Central NJ (seasonal trend). Agreed..and here's the 60 hr. Awesome H5 signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 where baro at? He's usually in here for the discussion Sorry I am here--half awake and trying to do 5 things at once. Glad to see the 06 NAM back to reality--the 0Z NAM was awful in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very nice look on the NAM, but I'm still concerned about the Euro. Except for one run, the NAM has been pretty consistent also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 just fyi, watch the 925 mb zone...nyc is fine but about 40 miles south of phl has some mixing issues, which works its way towards the toms river area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agreed..and here's the 60 hr. Awesome H5 signature. perfect H85 low track as well for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very nice look on the NAM, but I'm still concerned about the Euro. Except for one run, the NAM has been pretty consistent also. The Euro has been having major issues with the western wave. I wouldn't worry too much about it. I posted this earlier in central/western (too lazy to type it). It has performed horribly both in the op/ensembles. http://www.americanw...post__p__312818 In short--it has been way too far west and south with a meager phase as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Earthlight, you getting rain at your house? Any reports from N/C NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Earthlight, you getting rain at your house? Any reports from N/C NJ? It's rain here...temp around the 34 degree mark, dewpoint at 34 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Earthlight, you getting rain at your house? Any reports from N/C NJ? It looks like rain to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 clown map on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mt Holly AFD calling for 3-5" for Friday: .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. PRESENTLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS ON TARGET FOR MOST AREAS. ACCUMS COULD BE LESS ACROSS THE DELMARVA...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE ACCUMS AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM YET. THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE FRI AFTERNOON AND A STRONG WRLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Upton has similar wording, talking about advisory to perhaps warning level snowfalls... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --SHEARED OUT TROUGH AXIS CROSSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. GUSTY CAA WNW FLOW TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF TROUGH AXIS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR...AND LOWER TO MID 20S COAST. THEN FOCUS WILL BE ON PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN ON THURS...WITH MODELS/ENSEMBLES COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURS EVENING AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PHASING/TIMING/STRENGTH WHICH ARE AFFECTING LOW PRESSURE EVOLUTION...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS THE SAME. AT THE SURFACE...RESULTANT BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM THE GULF TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY...LOOKS TO TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW TRACKING NE TO THE VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY SHOWS ITSELF IN DIFFERENCES IN EXACT DETAILS OF THE LOW AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE COMMON DENOMINATORS ARE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH A TRACK SE OF THE AREA AND WITH POLAR HIGH LOCKED OVER CENTRAL US/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND IT IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGH...BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION. AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A TRACK SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND LOW END WARNING SNOW WITH A TRACK INSIDE. MODELS VARY AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS. CLIMATOLOGY ON THESE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS PUT THIS AT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH A LOW END THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES...BUT MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS THE DETAILS SHOULD CLEAR UP. WILL ADDRESS IN HWO. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...GENERALLY HIGH IN THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S CITY/COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INTERIOR AND LOWER/MID 20S CITY/COAST.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 clown map on nam Might actually be an anti-clown map in this situation as it uses a fixed 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 clown map on nam That can't be right--it has 1-2" for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's the real clown map..with adjusted snow to liquid ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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