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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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Very nice look on the NAM, but I'm still concerned about the Euro. Except for one run, the NAM has been pretty consistent also.

The Euro has been having major issues with the western wave. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I posted this earlier in central/western (too lazy to type it). It has performed horribly both in the op/ensembles.

http://www.americanw...post__p__312818

In short--it has been way too far west and south with a meager phase as a result.

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Mt Holly AFD calling for 3-5" for Friday:

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR

WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE

OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A

SHIELD OF SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS

EXPECTED. PRESENTLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS ON TARGET FOR MOST

AREAS. ACCUMS COULD BE LESS ACROSS THE DELMARVA...BUT IT IS STILL

TOO EARLY TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE ACCUMS AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM

YET.

THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE FRI AFTERNOON AND A STRONG

WRLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD AIR

WILL BE AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Upton has similar wording, talking about advisory to perhaps warning level snowfalls...

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --SHEARED OUT TROUGH AXIS CROSSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN

OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. GUSTY CAA WNW FLOW TONIGHT WITH

LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF TROUGH AXIS. TEMPS

EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR...AND

LOWER TO MID 20S COAST.

THEN FOCUS WILL BE ON PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE

CENTRAL PLAIN ON THURS...WITH MODELS/ENSEMBLES COMING INTO FAIRLY

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURS

EVENING AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON

FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PHASING/TIMING/STRENGTH WHICH ARE

AFFECTING LOW PRESSURE EVOLUTION...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS THE SAME. AT

THE SURFACE...RESULTANT BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM THE GULF

TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY...LOOKS TO TRACK TO THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW

TRACKING NE TO THE VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY

AFTERNOON.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY SHOWS ITSELF IN DIFFERENCES IN

EXACT DETAILS OF THE LOW AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH

TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE COMMON DENOMINATORS ARE THAT THIS WILL BE

AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH A TRACK SE OF THE AREA AND WITH POLAR HIGH

LOCKED OVER CENTRAL US/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS INTO

ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND IT IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL

FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGH...BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN

QUESTION. AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A TRACK SE

OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND LOW END WARNING SNOW WITH A TRACK

INSIDE. MODELS VARY AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS. CLIMATOLOGY ON THESE

QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS PUT THIS AT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN ADVISORY

LEVEL EVENT WITH A LOW END THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS. STILL

TOO EARLY FOR ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES...BUT MONITOR SUBSEQUENT

FORECASTS AS THE DETAILS SHOULD CLEAR UP. WILL ADDRESS IN HWO.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW

SEASONABLE...GENERALLY HIGH IN THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO UPPER

20S/LOWER 30S CITY/COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INTERIOR AND

LOWER/MID 20S CITY/COAST.-- End Changed Discussion --

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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