tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Most of the models show some QPF with that small coastal . The other models are still more bullish on the QPF with the friday storm than the Euro. It's Euro vs the world. the euro has a sub 996 off hse then it bombs it as it heads ene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree. I mean look at the GFS's precip shield with a 1000 mb low off the coast at 60 while the Euro has a 996 off the coast. Euro definitely struggling with the precip. He missed the k, he meant ACK (nantucket), not AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I would be more worried about Euro if other Models were showing 1+ QPF and it was showing what it is but that is not the case..Unless there is some dramatic strengthening tomorrow this is looking more and more like a modest 3-6 Quick hitter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thurs/Fri event is shaping up to be the biggest snowfall of the season for me.. at least has the potential to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How do temps look this weekend on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How do temps look this weekend on the Euro? highs in low to mid 20s...low in the cities up single digits to low teens...0 to 5 in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 at hr 144 the euro has a sub 1036 high in upstate ny...sub 1012 low in the gulf and one in minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00z UK @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00z UK @ 144 It would probably already be snowing in DC based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 156 has hvy snow breaking out in central va down to the norfolk to roa line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 162 has lgt to mod snow from phl to to stroudsburg then west along i80...mod snow in dc and balt, though the 850 line is just south of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Through 42 hours the SSB MM5 is about dead on with the NAM, so no arguments yet to say the NAM was out to lunch, we'll see though what it does once the low really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 156 has hvy snow breaking out in central va down to the norfolk to roa line I have been watching this threat for next week for 2 days now, I know for your area its just another in the line of threats, but for places to your southwest this is the first setup I have really liked. The H5 is digging a bit more, and might allow this to take a further west track up the coast, and also allow more southern jet influence so there is no "jump" to deal with. I think rain on the coast is the bigger threat with this system but even there I think would get a front end snow before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 168 looks like the ggem...hvy snow from about i78 north and west...low is right over the tidewater sub 1008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 174 has a sub 1000 low over new hope, pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 168 looks like the ggem...hvy snow from about i78 north and west...low is right over the tidewater sub 1008 Can't say I did not see that coming...When the NOGAPS which is a progressive model is west...its a warning that the storm will be west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The timing on this event next week needs to be exactly correct, given the fast flow of the Nina and the fact the low is quite weak prior to reaching the Gulf I like the chances right now...the faster it occurs the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The timing on this event next week needs to be exactly correct, given the fast flow of the Nina and the fact the low is quite weak prior to reaching the Gulf I like the chances right now...the faster it occurs the better. exactly right for a phase like the models are showing to cut it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00z NOGAPS @ 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 exactly right for a phase like the models are showing to cut it up? Double barrel low ..High pressure moving out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 exactly right for a phase like the models are showing to cut it up? No, we do not want a phase...the 1005mb low is perfect, we need the low to reach the Gulf and MA before the high leaves.......a phase will cut west of the Apps...a weak low in time will be a PD II repeat...the Euro setup a bit later would likely result in big front end snows and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Most people don't realize this but look how close the 850C line got during PDII http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2003/us0217.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No, we do not want a phase...the 1005mb low is perfect, we need the low to reach the Gulf and MA before the high leaves.......a phase will cut west of the Apps...a weak low in time will be a PD II repeat...the Euro setup a bit later would likely result in big front end snows and then rain. i was saying do you mean you think its to fast of a flow, given la nina, to have that low sit there and phase and cut it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Is NYC metro snow to rain on the Euro for the 174 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The analogs at 60 hours are basically useless...more or less arguing the potential is there for a weak system like the 00Z NAM showed and still opening up the chance for something very phased.... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=060&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Is NYC metro snow to rain on the Euro for the 174 storm? yea, you would get a good front end dump but then would go to a driving rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea, you would get a good front end dump but then would go to a driving rain storm its way to early to worry about specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nice west based block trying to develop on the euro days 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Most people don't realize this but look how close the 850C line got during PDII http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0217.php It sleeted for several hours at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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