Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2

[MJO812]

Better view of the GGEM

[Voyager]

Not sure. I just googled 'snow road alps'

Then I'll bet it's in the Alps....

Seriously though, that's a LOT of snow!

[mattinpa]

The SE trend is good because we get more snow than rain. Now it would be nice if the low intensified sooner. Still should get a nice moderate event.

[jm1220]

The SE trend is good because we get more snow than rain. Now it would be nice if the low intensified sooner. Still should get a nice moderate event.

If it intensifies sooner, it goes inland and the coast mixes/goes to rain. We need it to be weak like this so it doesn't overamplify. There's no block preventing an inland track for this.

[TheTrials]

n

no where near as robust as they were yesterday.

[mattinpa]

If it intensifies sooner, it goes inland and the coast mixes/goes to rain. We need it to be weak like this so it doesn't overamplify. There's no block preventing an inland track for this.

I mean intensifies later than previous NAM runs but sooner than the GFS shows. I don't want an early phase.

[Kingwill]

If it intensifies sooner, it goes inland and the coast mixes/goes to rain. We need it to be weak like this so it doesn't overamplify. There's no block preventing an inland track for this.

Why cant we have a Nam Like Solution..Which Shows all snow but alot stronger ?

[Parsley]

Again, a "potential" big difference between 30-60 miles NW of Philly and the south shore of Long Island. We could all get a general 3-6" or it could snow 6-12" here inland in eastern PA, and rain on the south shore of Long Island.

Dicey, as usual. I'm hoping for a general moderate snow for all, just to be nice.

[SnowGoose69]

Given the seasonal tendency so far and the non-negative NAO I'd be careful about tossing the amplified solution yet....we know that this range on the models has been poor too.

[bmc10]

Better view of the GGEM

Have a link to the animated version?

[MJO812]

Have a link to the animated version?

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[A-L-E-X]

Given the seasonal tendency so far and the non-negative NAO I'd be careful about tossing the amplified solution yet....we know that this range on the models has been poor too.

The funny thing is, SG, all the TV mets (even the good ones like Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory) are talking about a ho-hum clipper dropping 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow that's out of here by Friday morning. No one is even mentioning a coastal possibility. They are also saying all snow as if it's set in stone, with temps in the mid 20s for highs.

[MJO812]

12z JMA.

[NaoPos]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Canadian animated

[Manny]

The slightly later phase might work to drop a moderate snowfall, but if the coastal were to amplify quicker near the SNJ coast as shown on most models (location) than amounts could be higher. Even the NAM goes south and east of its previous runs, but amplifies the storm quicker. Whatever the case might be, it's another interesting developer.

[Violentweatherfan]

Never saw that photo before... where is it from? And when?

Hey Ray, I saved the pic and it had a self title of Japan, so the snow in the picture might be from Japan

[TwcMan]

Not sure if I can post this but this is from another site from Jeff Berardelli, he says the NAM is most likely correct.

Forecast still on track guys. The NAM is likely correct with its track, setup, etc... I am not a big fan of the NAM past 48 hours but in this case I think it is correct.

Here's the deal... Typically with a 500mb set up like we are gonna have the end of this week you'd get a storm that develops too late and too far west and north. So you'd see a quick hit of snow to rain... a few hour storm and you get dry/warm sectored. But in this case there's a difference. Because the southern end of the trough has some vorticity/energy when it is in the Plains/MS Valley it initiates Surface low pressure down there. The energy is fairly equally distributed in the trough at that point and so you would argue for development of the suface low where the moisture is and also where you can the best diffluence aloft. That would be the lower MS valley give/take.

Now eventually the southern end of the trough weakens and the energy there just dissapates. The trough goes negative and the energy up north intensifies over PA then everything lifts NEward. That would normally be bad for you guys as explained above. But in this case the initail Sfc system is enough to get you to the coast and so the redevelopment occurs south of NYC along (not off) the MidAtl coast. So now you've confined warming to the immediate coast and you ensure enough moisture for atleast moderate snow from PHL northward. Of course interior New Eng sees the most.

In this situation it is likely the coast will see some change over to rain. But from NYC north this will likely be all snow & maybe a little sleet.

One thing... quick hiiter. In an out in 8 hours or so. No blocking and NYC will be on the southern end of the Mod snow as the storm develops a bit too late for major snow.

I hope I explained that so you get the picture. The balance here is key. Initail southern surface low counteracts the effects of the deepening 500mb trough up north. Gets you just far enough in time so that when the 500mb low up north decides to take over the storm is just too far south to go west of NYC and is also just far enough south for moderate precip in the NYC area. Bigger hit New Eng

Jeff Berardelli

[MJO812]

Given the seasonal tendency so far and the non-negative NAO I'd be careful about tossing the amplified solution yet....we know that this range on the models has been poor too.

According to this, the NAO is going negative. It's either going to go negative just before the storm or just after the storm.

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

[MJO812]

The storm track on the Nam and GGEM are similiar.

12z GGEM

[LakeEffectKing]

Hey Ray, I saved the pic and it had a self title of Japan, so the snow in the picture might be from Japan

Either those are the longest, skinniest trees I've ever seen (to the right in the pic) or that is a photoshop!

[bmc10]

Not sure if I can post this but this is from another site from Jeff Berardelli, he says the NAM is most likely correct.

Forecast still on track guys. The NAM is likely correct with its track, setup, etc... I am not a big fan of the NAM past 48 hours but in this case I think it is correct.

Here's the deal... Typically with a 500mb set up like we are gonna have the end of this week you'd get a storm that develops too late and too far west and north. So you'd see a quick hit of snow to rain... a few hour storm and you get dry/warm sectored. But in this case there's a difference. Because the southern end of the trough has some vorticity/energy when it is in the Plains/MS Valley it initiates Surface low pressure down there. The energy is fairly equally distributed in the trough at that point and so you would argue for development of the suface low where the moisture is and also where you can the best diffluence aloft. That would be the lower MS valley give/take.

Now eventually the southern end of the trough weakens and the energy there just dissapates. The trough goes negative and the energy up north intensifies over PA then everything lifts NEward. That would normally be bad for you guys as explained above. But in this case the initail Sfc system is enough to get you to the coast and so the redevelopment occurs south of NYC along (not off) the MidAtl coast. So now you've confined warming to the immediate coast and you ensure enough moisture for atleast moderate snow from PHL northward. Of course interior New Eng sees the most.

In this situation it is likely the coast will see some change over to rain. But from NYC north this will likely be all snow & maybe a little sleet.

One thing... quick hiiter. In an out in 8 hours or so. No blocking and NYC will be on the southern end of the Mod snow as the storm develops a bit too late for major snow.

I hope I explained that so you get the picture. The balance here is key. Initail southern surface low counteracts the effects of the deepening 500mb trough up north. Gets you just far enough in time so that when the 500mb low up north decides to take over the storm is just too far south to go west of NYC and is also just far enough south for moderate precip in the NYC area. Bigger hit New Eng

Jeff Berardelli

Where did he post this? And the NAM shows more then just moderate snows for the NYC area...

[Ed Lizard]

When does Tombo initialize?

[Stormlover74]

The only issue I have is that the NAM shows more than a moderate hit for NYC, unless 10 to 12" is now considered moderate. His snowfall forecast seems to mesh better with the other models despite his thinking the the NAM is correct with the track.

Not sure if I can post this but this is from another site from Jeff Berardelli, he says the NAM is most likely correct.

Forecast still on track guys. The NAM is likely correct with its track, setup, etc... I am not a big fan of the NAM past 48 hours but in this case I think it is correct.

Here's the deal... Typically with a 500mb set up like we are gonna have the end of this week you'd get a storm that develops too late and too far west and north. So you'd see a quick hit of snow to rain... a few hour storm and you get dry/warm sectored. But in this case there's a difference. Because the southern end of the trough has some vorticity/energy when it is in the Plains/MS Valley it initiates Surface low pressure down there. The energy is fairly equally distributed in the trough at that point and so you would argue for development of the suface low where the moisture is and also where you can the best diffluence aloft. That would be the lower MS valley give/take.

Now eventually the southern end of the trough weakens and the energy there just dissapates. The trough goes negative and the energy up north intensifies over PA then everything lifts NEward. That would normally be bad for you guys as explained above. But in this case the initail Sfc system is enough to get you to the coast and so the redevelopment occurs south of NYC along (not off) the MidAtl coast. So now you've confined warming to the immediate coast and you ensure enough moisture for atleast moderate snow from PHL northward. Of course interior New Eng sees the most.

In this situation it is likely the coast will see some change over to rain. But from NYC north this will likely be all snow & maybe a little sleet.

One thing... quick hiiter. In an out in 8 hours or so. No blocking and NYC will be on the southern end of the Mod snow as the storm develops a bit too late for major snow.

I hope I explained that so you get the picture. The balance here is key. Initail southern surface low counteracts the effects of the deepening 500mb trough up north. Gets you just far enough in time so that when the 500mb low up north decides to take over the storm is just too far south to go west of NYC and is also just far enough south for moderate precip in the NYC area. Bigger hit New Eng

Jeff Berardelli

[am19psu]

When does Tombo initialize?

If I had to guess, Tombo is sleeping. I'm working. Can someone else do the pbp?

[winterwarlock]

Where did he post this? And the NAM shows more then just moderate snows for the NYC area...

this most be from the weenie board

[Voyager]

Have a link to the animated version?

Yeah, I'd like to see earlier frames. He only posted the one that's best for HIM.

[earthlight]

When does Tombo initialize?

[earthlight]

Yeah, I'd like to see earlier frames. He only posted the one that's best for HIM.

You can edit the time stamp in the image URL.

[bmc10]

Yeah, I'd like to see earlier frames. He only posted the one that's best for HIM.

A link was posted, you can view the animation...

[unknown]

CRAS