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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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Luckily it's the Canadian in the long range...

I'm still enthused by the fact that all models have a storm in this time range, keep the hits coming!

Its still somewhat PD II like but the key will be to keep the system weak, the 1040mb high or whatever it is will do all the work as it did during the PDII storm, if a deep low forms there it will go west for sure, same would have happened during the PD II storm as we discussed earlier today if the low was deeper.

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The Euro could be the finisher in determining what type of storm we'll be seeing, which most likely seems like a moderate event. Although, variances in QPF, track, and amplification are still not set in stone. For one, I'm exciting just to have it snow again. Just so much snow, it's awesome.

Agreed. Hopefully there's a shot at me breaking 40" on Friday, before the start of Feb. That's just incredible for this area. The cold shot incoming immediately after looks vicious too.

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The Euro could be the finisher in determining what type of storm we'll be seeing, which most likely seems like a moderate event. Although, variances in QPF, track, and amplification are still not set in stone. For one, I'm exciting just to have it snow again. Just so much snow, it's awesome.

IMO nothing is Written in stone until this time tomorrow..

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hr 66 sub 996 75 miles sse of ac

.01-.1 nj, phl to wellsboro to nyc

.1-.25 nyc and li

i'm sorry but is this for real?

a 996mb low hugging the coast and we only get 0.10" QPF?

also... it would appear that the storm almost stalls between hr60 and hr66, is that true, or just my imagination?

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This seems low...there were two frames where NYC metro was in the .1-.25 and now you're saying total QPF is <.25"

i cant tell really its hard to see. Cause i have accum precip maps. And its printing out .1-.25 for tonight. Then after fridays event the total qpf is .25-.5...lean more towards the .15 towards phl. The 2nd time nyc has .1 its like just east of the city, so its prob like .08-.1

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i'm sorry but is this for real?

a 996mb low hugging the coast and we only get 0.10" QPF?

also... it would appear that the storm almost stalls between hr60 and hr66, is that true, or just my imagination?

I agree. I mean look at the GFS's precip shield with a 1000 mb low off the coast at 60 while the Euro has a 996 off the coast. Euro definitely struggling with the precip.

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the euro keeps showing a decent size coastal that scrapes hse. Im not sure if other models have this. If not, thats could be the reason why its so light on the storm cause its holding some energy back.

Most of the models show some QPF with that small coastal . The other models are still more bullish on the QPF with the friday storm than the Euro. It's Euro vs the world.

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