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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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Please do not forget about the CRAS..there is still major model support for a bomb. It has 5 inches of liquid in 3 hours over Southern New Hampshire. 956 pressure will shut down the I-95 corridor for months. Thank you.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_072l.gif

956 at 72 hours on the 0z compared to 940 at 84 hours on the 12z. Unfortunately, this model is also trending weaker. :thumbsdown:

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Its a miracle how models can handle QPF similarly when there isn't a 980mb bomb with banding everywhere

Good. No massive lollipops, but no subsidence screwzones either.

It's been a while since we've seen a fluffy 3-6 or 4-8 type event here. The pattern isn't supportive of a major snow bomb, but smaller events like these are still possible with the longwave pattern. We wouldn't want a major blowup of a storm from this pattern-it would have a major risk of cutting inland and going to rain for the City and coast.

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I dont know about you guys but i am extatic for a 4-7" snowfall, some are mad (dont know why?)..More or less could fall but this is going to be a solid snowstorm either way..8" would put me at 50" for the season thus far (holy crap) with plenty more on the way...:snowman:

There is some upside here though if the low bombs out a bit faster and hugs the coast, but that would just be a bonus :thumbsup:

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I personally love moderate events also; its just a great refreshing sight to see new snow ontop of old snow. Not to mention, the trees will look lovely again.

This is gonna be a light powdery snow ... the type that doesn't stick well to trees. A wet snow that sticks to the trees/bushes is prettier, but I also like a nice powdery snow sometimes. This one will be easy to shovel.

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This is where North Atantic Blocking would be a necessity, notice how the high slides off the New England Coast (because there is no 50/50 low to hold it in place) this would most certainly be a snow to rain scenario for the coast. In the type of pattern we are in you don't want a wound up solution because there is nothing upstream to force it off the coast. These 3-6 inch modest events are viable until we see the return of a -NAO...

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Agree with the above post...4-7 would have me approaching or exceeding 50" on the season..which is nearing last years total snowfall.

i think a sustained period of heavy snow is what makes a snowstorm satisfying.

if a 4-7" event features a 2 hour period of sustained heavy snow, then it's a fantastic experience in my book.

many hundreds of millions of people on earth will live their whole lives without ever experiencing it.

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i think a sustained period of heavy snow is what makes a snowstorm satisfying.

if a 4-7" event features a 2 hour period of sustained heavy snow, then it's a fantastic experience in my book.

many hundreds of millions of people on earth will live their whole lives without ever experiencing it.

You're right about that - the heavy snow period can really make a storm fun.

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