SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 As I wrote an hr or so ago wouldn't be surprised to see other Models trend Better as the Nam trended Worse..Nothing more than a hunch because nothing has been easy or point blank with these storms meaning a clear cut solution by almost every model days out..So why why would it happen now.. This happens alot for some reason with the NAM and GFS...one is showing something for days and then flips and the other goes towards where the other model had been....sometimes its simply a blip run but every once in awhile they can trade places for an extended period, even up until when the event starts...based on the SREFs I think the NAM will return at 12Z...I won't even guess what the 06Z will do, if it was over Philly I would not be surprised the way the off hour NAM has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very high ratios on the GFS. The temp never gets above 25 N&W of I-95 while snow is falling, and in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos it's just 15-20 degrees. That with .35-.45 QPF would be about 4-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very high ratios on the GFS. The temp never gets above 25 N&W of I-95 while snow is falling, and in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos it's just 15-20 degrees. That with .35-.45 QPF would be about 4-6" of snow. January 04 clipper and 2/6/93 arctic front are the best ratios I've ever seen on the coast near NYC...if we can get those we could get great amounts out of this, even with just .30-.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 January 04 clipper and 2/6/93 arctic front are the best ratios I've ever seen on the coast near NYC...if we can get those we could get great amounts out of this, even with just .30-.40 Was the February 6 1993 snow event on a Saturday? I remember snow falling heavily during the morning, with the City coming in at around 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NOGAPS agrees with all the models that this is a general 4-6" event. 3 more "important" models to keep tonight's streak of model agreement going - the GGEM, MM5, and most importanly, ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS has second storm brewing now at hr. 150 - we'll see where it goes.. Pretty good potential for that time frame, but the s/w closes off in the s/w and precip outruns the best dynamics.. good potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00z Nogaps @ 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS has second storm brewing now at hr. 150 - we'll see where it goes.. I love the near miss phase at 84-102 as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Pretty good potential for that time frame, but the s/w closes off in the s/w and precip outruns the best dynamics.. good potential though Looking nicer this run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_168l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 look pretty crappy to me It does? I think it looks pretty good for the GFS at this time. Lots of moisture coming from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 northern and southern streams are off...the low in the SW stays closed to long and hangs back....at 180 it looks better with a developing -nao, energy in the SW ejecting and a Sw diving in out of canada But those are specifics we should be looking at in the closer range. It definitely shows big potential - maybe bigger than this next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 *yawn* glad to wake up from my nap, look at the latest runs, and can still be comfortable with the 3-6 "gun to the head" call I made Tombo got sick of this thread and abandoned it, btw. Maybe he'll come back for the EC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 *yawn* glad to wake up from my nap, look at the latest runs, and can still be comfortable with the 3-6 "gun to the head" call I made Tombo got sick of this thread and abandoned it, btw. Maybe he'll come back for the EC... I agree...and I would certainly love a 3-6 inch event. It's been a while, actually..since we had a 3-6" event that didn't feature a changeover. IIRC. And if tombo isn't here, I'll be up tonight doing the Euro play by play regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Add the GFS ensemble mean and GGEM to the list of models showing a 4-6" event across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The other image looked old so deleted it but now its cached correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree...and I would certainly love a 3-6 inch event. It's been a while, actually..since we had a 3-6" event that didn't feature a changeover. IIRC. And if tombo isn't here, I'll be up tonight doing the Euro play by play regardless. I'm not gonna rule out it could still end up more amped... watch the EC come in with a bomb tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS has 0.45" for KPNE, up from 0.37" on the 18z. with good ratios that's 5-7", which I would gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 actually QPF-wise the NAM and GFS agree rather well. for KPNE: GFS 0.45" NAM 0.40" Both have good ratios, 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 actually QPF-wise the NAM and GFS agree rather well. for KPNE: GFS 0.45" NAM 0.40" Both have good ratios, 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 towards the end. Yeah, I was gonna say, the GFS and NAM are remarkably similar right now QPF-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, I was gonna say, the GFS and NAM are remarkably similar right now QPF-wise. So are the UKMET, NOGAPS, and GGEM. We just need the Euro to come around in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Its a miracle how models can handle QPF similarly when there isn't a 980mb bomb with banding everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the GFS ensemble mean has slightly more QPF for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what a nice setup at hr 144, look at that nice high sitting west of maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, I was gonna say, the GFS and NAM are remarkably similar right now QPF-wise. It seems that the GFS is slightly wetter and more of an 8 hour and out type deal, whereas the NAM spreads the event more over 12 hours. Either way, I'm happy with both solutions I don't think this low will bomb out as prior guidance once suggested, but I do think QPF will increase ever so slightly as we approach the event. That's just been the trend of the winter so far, most notably with this past event. This seems to actually be a normal winter storm without those crazy frontogenic bands. Anyone have an idea if/when NWS will put up watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Its a miracle how models can handle QPF similarly when there isn't a 980mb bomb with banding everywhere Please do not forget about the CRAS..there is still major model support for a bomb. It has 5 inches of liquid in 3 hours over Southern New Hampshire. 956 pressure will shut down the I-95 corridor for months. Thank you. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hard to really tell without seeing hour 66..but the GGEM looks like it has alot more moisture influx then say the GFS for example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Please do not forget about the CRAS..there is still major model support for a bomb. It has 5 inches of liquid in 3 hours over Southern New Hampshire. 956 pressure will shut down the I-95 corridor for months. Thank you. http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_pcp_072l.gif post that in the sne thread, they would love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 post that in the sne thread. You want a thermal gradient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Please do not forget about the CRAS..there is still major model support for a bomb. It has 5 inches of liquid in 3 hours over Southern New Hampshire. 956 pressure will shut down the I-95 corridor for months. Thank you. http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_pcp_072l.gif That may be the most ridiculous model output I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You want a thermal gradient? that would be perfect, kind of looks like the feb 26 storm last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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