NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NAO is not technically positive for this storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that is why only people who know what they are talking about should be doing the play by plays Yep. See post 28 on page 2, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The RGEM seems like the older NAM runs. A stronger storm than the 00Z NAM. To me the winter of 10/11 seems to support the stronger solutions. Like 95/96 winter if it has pontential for heavy snow it mainly happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The RGEM seems like the older NAM runs. A stronger storm than the 00Z NAM. To me the winter of 10/11 seems to support the stronger solutions. Like 95/96 winter if it has pontential for heavy snow it mainly happens. I agree and I still feel Confident this will be a nice storm in the End..Worst Case Scenario will be a 2-4 inch snow refresher.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The RGEM seems like the older NAM runs. A stronger storm than the 00Z NAM. To me the winter of 10/11 seems to support the stronger solutions. Like 95/96 winter if it has pontential for heavy snow it mainly happens. The seasonal trend is always big, there is always a blip in a snowy winter and often a blip in a non-snowy one that goes the other way but we might have had that already this year with the miss just prior to the 12/26 storm...it seems snowy winters always find some way to overachieve in every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The seasonal trend is always big, there is always a blip in a snowy winter and often a blip in a non-snowy one that goes the other way but we might have had that already this year with the miss just prior to the 12/26 storm...it seems snowy winters always find some way to overachieve in every storm. am i completely off here, or could this be the miss just prior to the POTENTIAL mega-snowstorm on Tuesday like there was a major miss before 12/26? not sure if all models show it or just the GFS, but it has over 24 hours worth of snow on current models for Tuesday. thanks for the input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABE SnowObserver Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Eh, I don't know about the rest of you all, but a 4-5" snowfall would be the biggest snowfall this season for us here in the Lehigh Valley...we have not been spoiled yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 first of all this isn't a miss and one really has nothing to do with the other am i completely off here, or could this be the miss just prior to the POTENTIAL mega-snowstorm on Tuesday like there was a major miss before 12/26? not sure if all models show it or just the GFS, but it has over 24 hours worth of snow on current models for Tuesday. thanks for the input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 People have different expectations. There are the younger posters who only care about storms that would close schools. Then the other young ones who only know big storms of the past 10 years. Then there are some, like me, who appreciate any snow of any amount. How anyone can think 2"-5" is a miss or bad is beyond me as a snow lover. If I wake up to 4" of fresh powder Friday morning, I would be very happy. how about young ones who are fascinated by snow, whether 1" or 1' ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the GFS updates should start rolling in around 11...let's hope the higher QPF's come back..not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bolaris for Philly, 1-3" but no more then 2-4", quick mover never re-develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So far, 00Z UKMET looks the same as its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Loving the NAM, it goes "wrong" but with ratios still dumps 3-6" on me. If it comes to fruition, it would be the 5th 2"+ accumulating snowfall in a 2 week period in Chester County, PA. An occurance is seemingly anomalous but paging ChescoPAWxman, is such a period historic or merely the result of the death of the Gulf Stream and the subsequent norm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam's snowmap shows 5-6 inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the gfs analysis in here is off da hook Very nice hit for the whole tri state at 60 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good news is GFS looks better and may end up better than the 18Z GFS--which in itself was an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bolaris for Philly, 1-3" but no more then 2-4", quick mover never re-develops [/quote seems reasonable, except for the "no more than" part, i would at least mention the possibility, albeit seeming more and more remote, that this storms bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />Good news is GFS looks better and may end up better than the 18Z GFS--which in itself was an improvement.<br /><br /><br /><br />Yep.. Definitely better.. It's not a bad hit actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 True flip flop make me want to pull my hair out. No storm seem simple; you need to wait until the day before before you know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS comes northwest...your classic NCEP model flip and flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's a quick mover, but a nice hit of snow on the hr. 60 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Man.. I wish we could get that 500 mb map at hours 75-81 and move that down to our area. This thing forms a really tight closed low and bombs out majorly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's a quick mover, but a nice hit of snow on the hr. 60 map. What time frames are we looking at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 tonight's ncep model runs brought to you by...now back to your regulary scheduled program.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What time frames are we looking at now? Around hr. 54-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS comes northwest...your classic NCEP model flip and flop. As I wrote an hr or so ago wouldn't be surprised to see other Models trend Better as the Nam trended Worse..Nothing more than a hunch because nothing has been easy or point blank with these storms meaning a clear cut solution by almost every model days out..So why why would it happen now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The SSB MM5 will be interesting, if its more amped than the NAM we can pretty much be sure the NAM had a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The SSB MM5 will be interesting, if its more amped than the NAM we can pretty much be sure the NAM had a blip. When does that come out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the GFS only added about .05 from its last run no? As I wrote an hr or so ago wouldn't be surprised to see other Models trend Better as the Nam trended Worse..Nothing more than a hunch because nothing has been easy or point blank with these storms meaning a clear cut solution by almost every model days out..So why why would it happen now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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