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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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The RGEM seems like the older NAM runs. A stronger storm than the 00Z NAM. To me the winter of 10/11 seems to support the stronger solutions. Like 95/96 winter if it has pontential for heavy snow it mainly happens.

I agree and I still feel Confident this will be a nice storm in the End..Worst Case Scenario will be a 2-4 inch snow refresher..

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The RGEM seems like the older NAM runs. A stronger storm than the 00Z NAM. To me the winter of 10/11 seems to support the stronger solutions. Like 95/96 winter if it has pontential for heavy snow it mainly happens.

The seasonal trend is always big, there is always a blip in a snowy winter and often a blip in a non-snowy one that goes the other way but we might have had that already this year with the miss just prior to the 12/26 storm...it seems snowy winters always find some way to overachieve in every storm.

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The seasonal trend is always big, there is always a blip in a snowy winter and often a blip in a non-snowy one that goes the other way but we might have had that already this year with the miss just prior to the 12/26 storm...it seems snowy winters always find some way to overachieve in every storm.

am i completely off here, or could this be the miss just prior to the POTENTIAL mega-snowstorm on Tuesday like there was a major miss before 12/26? not sure if all models show it or just the GFS, but it has over 24 hours worth of snow on current models for Tuesday. thanks for the input

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first of all this isn't a miss and one really has nothing to do with the other

am i completely off here, or could this be the miss just prior to the POTENTIAL mega-snowstorm on Tuesday like there was a major miss before 12/26? not sure if all models show

it or just the GFS, but it has over 24 hours worth of snow on current models for Tuesday. thanks for the input

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People have different expectations. There are the younger posters who only care about storms that would close schools. Then the other young ones who only know big storms of the past 10 years.

Then there are some, like me, who appreciate any snow of any amount.

How anyone can think 2"-5" is a miss or bad is beyond me as a snow lover.

If I wake up to 4" of fresh powder Friday morning, I would be very happy.

how about young ones who are fascinated by snow, whether 1" or 1' ??:)

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Loving the NAM, it goes "wrong" but with ratios still dumps 3-6" on me. If it comes to fruition, it would be the 5th 2"+ accumulating snowfall in a 2 week period in Chester County, PA. An occurance is seemingly anomalous but paging ChescoPAWxman, is such a period historic or merely the result of the death of the Gulf Stream and the subsequent norm?

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GFS comes northwest...your classic NCEP model flip and flop.

As I wrote an hr or so ago wouldn't be surprised to see other Models trend Better as the Nam trended Worse..Nothing more than a hunch because nothing has been easy or point blank with these storms meaning a clear cut solution by almost every model days out..So why why would it happen now..whistle.gif

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the GFS only added about .05 from its last run no?

As I wrote an hr or so ago wouldn't be surprised to see other Models trend Better as the Nam trended Worse..Nothing more than a hunch because nothing has been easy or point blank with these storms meaning a clear cut solution by almost every model days out..So why why would it happen now..whistle.gif

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