NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 One run isn't a trend. You do know the EURO had a similar solution? Plus I do believe we have a better sampling of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM is still a 2"-5" snowfall. People need to chill. And NAM always has hiccup runs. This could be one. But even if it's not, Nothing wrong with 2"-5" of snowfall areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You do know the EURO had a similar solution? The Euro doesn't count as a trend since it's had the same solution. If the GFS is weaker, then maybe a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Anyone else think the surface low seems too far SE based on the 500mb setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yup. Models are converging to .50-.75" range. Anyone alarmed that the always overamped NAM comes in with less, hasn't followed weather before. Track is much further east and cuts precip by > 50% That's a noteworthy shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro's solution is actually nothing like this. The Euro holds back the southern energy while the NAM speeds it up. Only thing similar is the QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM is still a 2"-5" snowfall. People need to chill. And NAM always has hiccup runs. This could be one. But even if it's not, Nothing wrong with 2"-5" of snowfall areawide. Good post. It looks likely we will see at least a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You do know the EURO had a similar solution? The EURO has been consistent over the last several days showing a less amplified solution, do we really think it's going to fail big time? The Canadian of couse was way overdone, imo this isn't a good trend at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />NAM is still a 2"-5" snowfall. People need to chill.<br />And NAM always has hiccup runs. This could be one.<br />But even if it's not,<br />Nothing wrong with 2"-5" of snowfall areawide.<br /><br /><br /><br />Yep.. Good snow pack refreshal after today's rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A solid 2-4" is awful? You'd think it showed sunny skies or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We know how the NAM is prone to fickle runs - and the fact it is WEAKER than the GFS makes me think it was one of those fluke runs. You still get a nice snowfall on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You do know the EURO had a similar solution? Plus I do believe we have a better sampling of the northern stream. The Euro's weak solution was for a completely different reason. It essentially had much of the southern wave held back across the intermountain W and it was unable to both advect GOM into the low levels and incite rapid development of the upper level cold front/dynamic tropopause towards the surface after phasing. The NAM here has a full phase and still fails. The northern stream trough looks disheveled too. Can't tell if that is the NAM being junky or something the 0Z RAOB data caught. We will see here very soon with the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ya i just dont get how 2-4 is a miss...its a little less than what this storm has potential to bring but its def not a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The EURO has been consistent over the last several days showing a less amplified solution, do we really think it's going to fail big time? The Canadian of couse was way overdone, imo this isn't a good trend at all... Yes, it could fail. It has not been supreme this winter so far IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If you look at the NAM surface at 54 hours on the ewall there are two low centers, the NAM seems to make the SE most one dominant after 54 hours, I'm thinking that might be a mistake and the NW low might be the more dominant low or that simply the initial double low center is resulting in the SE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A solid 2-4" is awful? You'd think it showed sunny skies or something. I agree talk in this thread is as if the storm is a complete miss. Still looks like a decent event to my eyes...maybe not a major storm, but something to pad the seasonal snow totals for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You still get a nice snowfall on the nam. I'd take 2-4 inches. There's still hope in this pattern of getting a big one after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that is why only people who know what they are talking about should be doing the play by plays really? look how its turned out...read snowgoose posts...kinda falls in line with my pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If you look at the NAM surface at 54 hours on the ewall there are two low centers, the NAM seems to make the SE most one dominant after 54 hours, I'm thinking that might be a mistake and the NW low might be the more dominant low or that simply the initial double low center is resulting in the SE track. Good point! I noticed the two lows and wondered about that. But as I'm not a met, I don't comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This run of the NAM looks perfectly reasonable to me. But it's also comfortably within the spread of the past few SREF cycles, so I don't think anyone should read too much into this specific run. The overall parameters remain unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'd take 2-4 inches. There's still hope in this pattern of getting a big one after. Would you take 2 inches? Or reject it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This run does show a more favorable solution for an amplified northern stream based off the looks of NW Canada. PV is weaker and displaced further north. But the stronger upstream s/w energy balances that out in this run I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Would you take 2 inches? Or reject it? I'd take what was given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />If you look at the NAM surface at 54 hours on the ewall there are two low centers, the NAM seems to make the SE most one dominant after 54 hours, I'm thinking that might be a mistake and the NW low might be the more dominant low or that simply the initial double low center is resulting in the SE track.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I definitely hear what you're saying... Initially, it's actually very tough to predict where the low might form based on the 500 chart.. But I noticed at hour 63 there is a tight couplet between a maximum of anticyclonic vorticity and cyclonic vorticity.. And the NAM placed it in between that couplet which makes sense.. Id expect the low to develop in a region of greatest cyclonic vorticity advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good point! I noticed the two lows and wondered about that. But as I'm not a met, I don't comment. if everyone thinks like this then NONE of us weenies should post, AT ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This thread is hilarious with respect to the various posters saying the NAM is great versus the NAM sucks. Some folks should think more and post less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if everyone thinks like this then NONE of us weenies should post, AT ALL. wouldn't bother me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 With the PNA and NAO positive, I would think that this storm would be further north and closer to the coast than what the Nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 wouldn't bother me. so lets do that then....ONLY mets post. we just read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM looks strange, the b500MB is stronger, yet the low is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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