RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Southern stream is faster than last run so far still looks like its phasing at 42...doesnt look like it makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This doesn't look pretty at all. It has a weaker GOM fetch and a weaker low--the upper level fields are less impressive--both the northern stream and the southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 dont know what to think of the NAM the vort is weaker but it seems to be digging more also slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 still looks like its phasing at 42...doesnt look like it makes a big difference. If the souther stream gets out in front and drives the phased system it absolutely will make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This doesn't look pretty at all. It has a weaker GOM fetch and a weaker low--the upper level fields are less impressive--both the northern stream and the southern. I'm seeing the same thing, not sure what other people are seeing that looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This doesn't look pretty at all. It has a weaker GOM fetch and a weaker low--the upper level fields are less impressive--both the northern stream and the southern. Sounds like it's going to trend towards the ECMWF solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 phases at 48hr, but you can see it on frame 42. looks big! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This doesn't look pretty at all. It has a weaker GOM fetch and a weaker low--the upper level fields are less impressive--both the northern stream and the southern. Agreed on all counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Will be interesting where it fires up the low.. Has that broad low pressure across all of the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah at 57, compared to 18z the vort is digging more but its weaker and faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 im lookin at 500mb, i mean....it really isnt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z was overdone. we are seeing the nam show something more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />Agreed on all counts<br /><br /><br /><br />I'm not sure what to think... Honestly.. It's not looking too bad. I think it might surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z was overdone. we are seeing the nam show something more reasonable Yup. Models are converging to .50-.75" range. Anyone alarmed that the always overamped NAM comes in with less, hasn't followed weather before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I'm not sure what to think... Honestly.. It's not looking too bad. I think it might surprise at 60 the low (1002mb) is quite a bit off shore (delmarva) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 at 63hrs its way off shore- basically a miss...falls in line with the rest of the models..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 im also not comparing it to any previous runs...just looking at it individually at the moment. hr 54, why is this THAT bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agreed prob end result hold serve to 18z not even close- go to ewall and look at the wrf-nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agreed on all counts Well that was ugly--that is worse than the GFS. That southern wave is way too weak to do any good. I hope this trend doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 not even close Yep I c that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This run is coming in south and colder. Higher ratio snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's sliding south and east... Bummer.. Baroclinic and John had the right hunch.. The trof doesn't look as healthy at hour 60 and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This run is coming in south and colder. Higher ratio snows. lets not grasp at straws, this run wasn't a good trend, and we rarely get great ratios on the coast regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well that was ugly--that is worse than the GFS. That southern wave is way too weak to do any good. I hope this trend doesn't continue. Bad start to the 0Z runs just when it looked like things were trending toward the 12Z nam..would be Funny if the rest of the Models trended better..which wouldn't surprise me at all to be honest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We know how the NAM is prone to fickle runs - and the fact it is WEAKER than the GFS makes me think it was one of those fluke runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 isnt the sref nw of the nam and more ampd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that is why only people who know what they are talking about should be doing the play by plays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lets not grasp at straws, this run wasn't a good trend, and we rarely get great ratios on the coast regardless. One run isn't a trend. It still gets to 992 off the coast, but too far east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 isnt the sref nw of the nam and more ampd? Yes. SREF shows a 996 low just southeast of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking at 500mb vort, it is an improvement. It will also eventually intensify the s/w in the south in later runs. It is not going to show everything in one run. Just watch trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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