famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah that was interesting, because my initial reaction when the nam finally shifted east with the qpf was "same old NAM". However, in the end it had the best idea with strengthening and I thought it had the further west track down too. The error of the nam seemed to be in expanding the qpf too far to the west over our area. I could be misinformed there though and the actual track may have been further east than the nam predicted No I think that's accurate. It was telling when looking at one of the Meso's depiction of the precip field developing over eastern VA and MD during the late afternoon of 1/11 and seeing radar not show anything in that area that, while the SLP track might be fine, the precip was gonna be east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 you mean 12/5/02 and i like that analogue for this storm No I did mean 12/5/03...12/5/02 was quick hitting but did not have many double digit totals..12/5/03 did not either unless you add on what happened the next day but it did put down alot in a short span that Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 5 to 10 would be a more reasonable average for the northern 2/3rds of the state. There were two reports of slightly more than 12" but OKX threw them out as unrealistic. The following two maps are PNS + CoCoRaHS + COOP. I had 10 inches from that storm and received 6 Inches in a 3 hr period.. You're in Hillsborough, Somerset County? You'll notice that not a single total in your area was that high. Sure you're measuring correctly, such as away from a structure and not in a drift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />The only event that dropped those sort of amounts and was that quick was the 2/2/96 event, in at 9pm and gone by 6am...you have events like 12/5/03 of course were 6-8 fell in about a 7 hour period that morning and afternoon but this past storm and 2/2/96 were impressive in that without really producing widespread 2-3 inch per hour rates outside of the SW CT megaband they dropped many double digit totals in less than 10 hours. Exactly why one should always consider storm length and speed when forecasting, not many events in this area which last less than 12 hours will not produce amounts that big unless you see sustained 2-3 inch per hours rates at some point.<br /><br /><br /><br />You were reading my mind as I was just about to post this.2/2/96 also had a biter arctic air mass come in as well after the storm Last weeks storm reminded me of the 1/20-21/01 storm with the upper level vort intensifying the snowfall as it came across EPA NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Both. A more amped solution will be farther west, but will develop the deformation band/frontogenetic forcing with a strong gradient that we've seen a lot the last two seasons. The key is getting in the sweet spot. Thanks, that's kind of what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You were reading my mind as I was just about to post this.2/2/96 also had a biter arctic air mass come in as well after the storm Last weeks storm reminded me of the 1/20-21/01 storm with the upper level vort intensifying the snowfall as it came across EPA NNJ Synoptically that system was VERY different. Not much of a surface low at all... and definitely no bomb (assuming this does bomb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You're in Hillsborough, Somerset County? You'll notice that not a single total in your area was that high. Sure you're measuring correctly, such as away from a structure and not in a drift? Yup, I saw The "OFFICIAL Measurement was 8.5 but Where I was I measured 9.8 Officially..I remember I measured almost 4 Inches at 11 Pm at Remeasured at 2:30 am and had over 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No I think that's accurate. It was telling when looking at one of the Meso's depiction of the precip field developing over eastern VA and MD during the late afternoon of 1/11 and seeing radar not show anything in that area that, while the SLP track might be fine, the precip was gonna be east. Cool. I think we have reason to be concerned when the nam (even if its beyond 60 hrs) and some other meso models are ringing the rapid cyclogenesis bell for this event in this winter. Time will tell. I brought this up in a thread last night, but 2/3-5/95 is a really nice analog for this event. Granted, it's a more amped version then the models currently show for Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Cool. I think we have reason to be concerned when the nam (even if its beyond 60 hrs) and some other meso models are ringing the rapid cyclogenesis bell for this event in this winter. Time will tell. I brought this up in a thread last night, but 2/3-5/95 is a really nice analog for this event. Granted, it's a more amped version then the models currently show for Friday's storm. When is the NAO supposed to go negative again so that we can actually get an event that lasts 18-24 hours or so? The one we might get next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />Cool. I think we have reason to be concerned when the nam (even if its beyond 60 hrs) and some other meso models are ringing the rapid cyclogenesis bell for this event in this winter. Time will tell. I brought this up in a thread last night, but 2/3-5/95 is a really nice analog for this event. Granted, it's a more amped version then the models currently show for Friday's storm.<br /><br /><br /><br />2/3-4/95 I had 11 inches with loud thundersnow before a change to rain then bitter cold in the upper teens the next day and the single digits for lows at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> 2/3-4/95 I had 11 inches with loud thundersnow before a change to rain then bitter cold in the upper teens the next day and the single digits for lows at night. That storm screwed me on LI...I think I got 7 inches...some places in N Queens and N Nassau saw way more, I think they got under a heavy band since I changed over about the same time as them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its funny how this winter is playing out...when we have the -NAO and AO we have no +PNA and vice versa...but somehow its appears like it will be cold and snowy during both periods. They key will be to keep systems relatively weak over the next 2 weeks, if bombs form there is a threat of an inland track or at least a coastal changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When is the NAO supposed to go negative again so that we can actually get an event that lasts 18-24 hours or so? The one we might get next week? You know it is interesting and I just realized, we are actually gonna pop a nice -NAO ridge for a day or so in perfect tandum with this event on Friday. It is a transient ridge, but it is there and well placed it appears, so maybe coastal hugger track shouldnt be that huge of a concern after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I moved those pattern type posts over to the MR thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You know it is interesting and I just realized, we are actually gonna pop a nice -NAO ridge for a day or so in perfect tandum with this event on Friday. It is a transient ridge, but it is there and well placed it appears, so maybe coastal hugger track shouldnt be that huge of a concern after all. This event can phase quite strongly and probably stay just offshore thanks to this current storm deepening over SE Canada...if it were not for this storm I think the margin for error Friday would by much smaller as a deeper storm would be inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It really doesn't pay to do specific snow amounts especially when the storm is beyond the 60 hr forecast range. It's better to just say today at this point that there is the potential for an accumulating snow and the amounts will depend on the final track of the low. bingo...lots of weenism in this thread, no consensus has been reached yet, there is no point in telling the public of a 4-8 inch plus snowstorm when the leading model the Euro has yet to come around to that solution. We are three days away from the event so why alarm the public too soon only to have to backtrack. I think the public is well aware that another event will be happening on Friday. The constant bashing of NWS and tv mets because mega heavy storm warnings arent issued is becoming too frequent on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This event can phase quite strongly and probably stay just offshore thanks to this current storm deepening over SE Canada...if it were not for this storm I think the margin for error Friday would by much smaller as a deeper storm would be inland. Agreed. The ridge out west is a little too far west too that would allow for inland track. While we're at it, It is also pretty flat as well if were talking KU storms here, so this probably has a limit on how much it can dig somewhere around what the models are showing right now. The western ridging wasnt great either for 1/11-12 which was a reason that the mid atlantic was left out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 bingo...lots of weenism in this thread, no consensus has been reached yet, there is no point in telling the public of a 4-8 inch plus snowstorm when the leading model the Euro has yet to come around to that solution. We are three days away from the event so why alarm the public too soon only to have to backtrack. I think the public is well aware that another event will be happening on Friday. The constant bashing of NWS and tv mets because mega heavy storm warnings arent issued is becoming too frequent on this board Well I tend to agree that it's to early to say for certain if and how much snow a place will get I think it is also certain imo that the Euro is not the leading model it hasn't been perfect this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 21z SREF still amped up. 996 low just southeast of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 More QPF..still with a sub 996mb low S of Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Can we drop the "best meteorolgist" crap and get back to discussing the potential storm? My bad, didn't realize there was a whole thread on TV mets. Anyway, 00z NAM is on the clock..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 notice how the most spread is NW of the low center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Given the 18z GEFS and 21z SREFs, I think we hold serve on the 0z NAM and see a decent trend N&W on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i dunno whats going on but anyway.... threw 24hr energy diving down from CANDA, looks like good overrunning should spread east as back side of the trough is sharpened. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 notice how the most spread is NW of the low center How many times have we seen that though and not really make an impact anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This storm could be much stronger in terms of snow amounts, partly depending on how fast the amplification process takes place, and whether or not the low tucks a bit further west. Most model guidance seems to be trending towards a stronger solution, but the 00z NAM is coming out now and that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ok its kinda spooky no one is around talkin about the 0z nam. is the joke on me or something? lol at hr 36 it looks really good to me, looking at 500mb charts. energy down around the canadian border. should make this thing dig a bit more on future frames, i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Southern stream is faster than last run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Southern stream is faster than last run so far Liking that aspect. Thinking this may dig a littler further south than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 RSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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