Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There are about 5-7 members at H5 that are really amplified. When the sfc progs come out on the eWall, I bet you are going to see bombs. would you lean towards a potentially more amplified solution (maybe somewhere between the NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There are about 5-7 members at H5 that are really amplified. When the sfc progs come out on the eWall, I bet you are going to see bombs. Yup, I can see the spaghetti plots now. They look pretty impressive with a bunch of members showing sub 990 pressures south and southeast of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 would you lean towards a potentially more amplified solution (maybe somewhere between the NAM and GFS That's where my head is now, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There are about 5-7 members at H5 that are really amplified. When the sfc progs come out on the eWall, I bet you are going to see bombs. yea there are a couple of good bombs. We don't want to amplified or mixing concerns come back into the mix for the cities. A 12z ukie,ggem,nam and gfs would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 66 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea there are a couple of good bombs. We don't want to amplified or mixing concerns come back into the mix for the cities. A 12z ukie,ggem,nam and gfs would be perfect. will take that 4-8" blend remember folks, the objective is to have all of Friday's classes cancelled with the worst case scenario being only the PM classes cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I feel like there has definitely been a trend towards a stronger storm today. The NAM, obviously. But also the 18z GEFS, and did anyone notice the 12z UKIE? It looks like the next frame it would bomb out pretty close to the coast. Or it could just be the weenie inside me too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Can we drop the "best meteorolgist" crap and get back to discussing the potential storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's the link guys: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It was pretty bad. The Euro was good on QPF...slp was awful in the end but it had a pretty solid and consistent handle on precip for the event with 1/11-12. If you're worrying about "how much in my backyard" the Euro was much better than the NAM in Eastern PA. the NAM was killer awful with qpf on that storm in this part of the world. That must've been Saturday or before. I know on Sunday when I made my original call of 6-10 for Trenton, I sided most heavily with the EC which was in between the GFS and NAM at the time, and where it pretty much stayed until the storm was upon us. (reminder that the storm was Tuesday night). The GFS was kinda dry around here...generally 2-4 event for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's hard not to side with the amped solutions this winter, regardless of the setup. With that said I'm still pretty concerned about mixing issues with no blocking to stop an amped storm from hugging the coast more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Can we drop the "best meteorolgist" crap and get back to discussing the potential storm? Meteorologists and weather weenies have a terrible attention span....I find myself joining the off road turns these threads take alot as well but try and include a snippet somewhere that is directly thread related LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Meteorologists and weather weenies have a terrible attention span....I find myself joining the off road turns these threads take alot as well but try and include a snippet somewhere that is directly thread related LOL A professor once told me that intelligence and attention span are inversely related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The ukmet has also been very progressive (more so than most guidance) and it too has come in with a moderate hit. Not sure if its progressive tendency was a consequence of how it was handling the blocking, but this alerted me to think maybe the further nw robust tracks have more weight. I was going to post about the UKMET too. It is rather close to the coast on both the 12Z and 18Z runs at 72 hours. That is definitely a red flag, but the quick movement of the storm means I would take 80% of the QPF modeled for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A professor once told me that intelligence and attention span are inversely related i absolutely agree-oh look a butterfly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I was going to post about the UKMET too. It is rather close to the coast on both the 12Z and 18Z runs at 72 hours. That is definitely a red flag, but the quick movement of the storm means I would take 80% of the QPF modeled for this storm. Both the UKMET and GEM are exhibiting their usual temdemcies for the first time this season, the GEM west and milder and the UKMET throwing bombs out at every chance it gets...the UKMET loves bombs as much as the ETAxx did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Meteorologists and weather weenies have a terrible attention span....I find myself joining the off road turns these threads take alot as well but try and include a snippet somewhere that is directly thread related LOL A lot of times good discussions are going on, but don't belong in this thread. I'll try to a better job splitting things off into their own threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's hard not to side with the amped solutions this winter, regardless of the setup. With that said I'm still pretty concerned about mixing issues with no blocking to stop an amped storm from hugging the coast more. I'll agree that every storm has amped. The question of course has been, "where". While the NAM had the right idea for track for 1/11 it and the other meso's obviously amped it a bit too far west as otherwise NYC and PHL would've had a KU storm along with SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I was going to post about the UKMET too. It is rather close to the coast on both the 12Z and 18Z runs at 72 hours. That is definitely a red flag, but the quick movement of the storm means I would take 80% of the QPF modeled for this storm. 80%, IDK about that..The last snowstorm we had was a Quick Hitter 8-9 Hrs and dropped 6-12 inches in most of NJ..That is the Reason why i am not getting Hyped for a Blockbuster even though the trends are better cause of the fast moving nature of the system but I think another 6-12 type of storm is possible across the area if it reaches it's potential.. Edit: I thought U wrote take 80% off the totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's hard not to side with the amped solutions this winter, regardless of the setup. With that said I'm still pretty concerned about mixing issues with no blocking to stop an amped storm from hugging the coast more. agree 100 percent, i have seen this type of setup w/o blocking before, and it almost always involves some mixing and rain closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Both the UKMET and GEM are exhibiting their usual temdemcies for the first time this season, the GEM west and milder and the UKMET throwing bombs out at every chance it gets...the UKMET loves bombs as much as the ETAxx did. From what I've seen the your does that after hours 96 but when it comes inside that it loses the bombs and pulls major se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 80%, IDK about that..The last snowstorm we had was a Quick Hitter 8-9 Hrs and dropped 6-12 inches in most of NJ..That is the Reason why i am not getting Hyped for a Blockbuster even though the trends are better cause of the fast moving nature of the system but I think another 6-12 type of storm is possible across the area if it reaches it's potential.. 5 to 10 would be a more reasonable average for the northern 2/3rds of the state. There were two reports of slightly more than 12" but OKX threw them out as unrealistic. The following two maps are PNS + CoCoRaHS + COOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll agree that every storm has amped. The question of course has been, "where". While the NAM had the right idea for track for 1/11 it and the other meso's obviously amped it a bit too far west as otherwise NYC and PHL would've had a KU storm along with SNE. Yeah that was interesting, because my initial reaction when the nam finally shifted east with the qpf was "same old NAM". However, in the end it had the best idea with strengthening and I thought it had the further west track down too. The error of the nam seemed to be in expanding the qpf too far to the west over our area. I could be misinformed there though and the actual track may have been further east than the nam predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A lot of times good discussions are going on, but don't belong in this thread. I'll try to a better job splitting things off into their own threads. Nothing wrong with discussing meteorologists. It was just cluttering up THIS thread. Anyway, about the storm. Does a more amped up solution bring more precip to inland areas or does it just develop another tight gradient issue since the storm is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 80%, IDK about that..The last snowstorm we had was a Quick Hitter 8-9 Hrs and dropped 6-12 inches in most of NJ..That is the Reason why i am not getting Hyped for a Blockbuster even though the trends are better cause of the fast moving nature of the system but I think another 6-12 type of storm is possible across the area if it reaches it's potential.. Edit: I thought U wrote take 80% off the totals The only event that dropped those sort of amounts and was that quick was the 2/2/96 event, in at 9pm and gone by 6am...you have events like 12/5/03 of course were 6-8 fell in about a 7 hour period that morning and afternoon but this past storm and 2/2/96 were impressive in that without really producing widespread 2-3 inch per hour rates outside of the SW CT megaband they dropped many double digit totals in less than 10 hours. Exactly why one should always consider storm length and speed when forecasting, not many events in this area which last less than 12 hours will not produce amounts that big unless you see sustained 2-3 inch per hours rates at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah that was interesting, because my initial reaction when the nam finally shifted east with the qpf was "same old NAM". However, in the end it had the best idea with strengthening and I thought it had the further west track down too. The error of the nam seemed to be in expanding the qpf too far to the west over our area. I could be misinformed there though That's the way I interpreted the NAM's handling of the event as well. None of the models ever seem to handle the subsidence away from the strong frontogenetic forcing well, but the NAM clearly handled the bombing aspect the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nothing wrong with discussing meteorologists. It was just cluttering up THIS thread. Anyway, about the storm. Does a more amped up solution bring more precip to inland areas or does it just develop another tight gradient issue since the storm is stronger? Both. A more amped solution will be farther west, but will develop the deformation band/frontogenetic forcing with a strong gradient that we've seen a lot the last two seasons. The key is getting in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 5 to 10 would be a more reasonable average for the northern 2/3rds of the state. There were two reports of slightly more than 12" but OKX threw them out as unrealistic. The following two maps are PNS + CoCoRaHS + COOP. I had 10 inches from that storm and received 6 Inches in a 3 hr period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The only event that dropped those sort of amounts and was that quick was the 2/2/96 event, in at 9pm and gone by 6am...you have events like 12/5/03 of course were 6-8 fell in about a 7 hour period that morning and afternoon but this past storm and 2/2/96 were impressive in that without really producing widespread 2-3 inch per hour rates outside of the SW CT megaband they dropped many double digit totals in less than 10 hours. Exactly why one should always consider storm length and speed when forecasting, not many events in this area which last less than 12 hours will not produce amounts that big unless you see sustained 2-3 inch per hours rates at some point. you mean 12/5/02 and i like that analogue for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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