SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Since when has the EC been the statistically best model this winter? It has been all over the place. Its been putrid on QPF beyond 48 hours for sure, so even if its setup its showing now occurred the amounts would likely be higher. ...its having problems with the quick flow due to the La Nina so its timing has been off on phasing and systems ejecting out of the SW...so while it has often had the general idea of a storm its struggled on fine details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It IS a reasonable forecast if you are trying to rely on the statistically best model, which is the EC. I agree that no amounts should be thrown around as far as the public is concerned right now... and if I made a call right now thanks to a gun pointed to my head, I would go higher (probably 3-6). Going any higher than that is unreasonable right now given the great deal of uncertainty. it might have the best score when you do an average of height errors over the entire northern hemisphere, but it has stunk regarding individual events on the east coast this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It IS a reasonable forecast if you are trying to rely on the statistically best model, which is the EC. I agree that no amounts should be thrown around as far as the public is concerned right now... and if I made a call right now thanks to a gun pointed to my head, I would go higher (probably 3-6). Going any higher than that is unreasonable right now given the great deal of uncertainty. This. I agree with what you said completely. With that said, using the 12z GFS verbatim it is a 3-6/2-5 event and holds a middle ground between the Euro and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It IS a reasonable forecast if you are trying to rely on the statistically best model, which is the EC. I agree that no amounts should be thrown around as far as the public is concerned right now... and if I made a call right now thanks to a gun pointed to my head, I would go higher (probably 3-6). Going any higher than that is unreasonable right now given the great deal of uncertainty. I think we agree I was just saying that I thought it was prudent to blend. Given the euro you could forecast 1-3 and it could be considered reasonable but the euro also had initialization errors apparently and was discarded by the HPC. Either way it has been low on the precip amounts since the beginning, and although it has the highest verification scores we have seen this season it has seen better days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EC has 0.24" for NYC. 2-3" versus 2-4" versus 1-3"... is there really much difference? More perception than anything and the GFS is between 0.25 and 0.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Since when has the EC been the statistically best model this winter? It has been all over the place. Still better than the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The funny thing is, they and most of the rest of us had almost no measurable snowfall for the season through Xmas...... Yeah we got going late but we've really turned on the jets that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not a clipper...source region is Pac NW thru CO and then ENE. Yes Thank you(making sure I am not going crazy here) , I was really given guys on here a compliment as 10 years ago I would buy whatever TV mets/Forecasters were selling in Regards to a storm now all the Info I get from places like This always seem a Day or two more accurate and up to date than what they are saying on TV..I remember on Christmas Eve telling my Mom we could get a Blizzard and she was saying well that is not what I heard..I said by tomorrow U will and of course U know the rest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it might have the best score when you do an average of height errors over the entire northern hemisphere, but it has stunk regarding individual events on the east coast this winter. This. People take those average height error charts too literally sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its an issue again where the Euro may verify better than the GFS but the problem is that considers all days and not specifically for storms, I tend to believe the GFS more inside 84 hours whent the Euro shows something different, especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it might have the best score when you do an average of height errors over the entire northern hemisphere, but it has stunk regarding individual events on the east coast this winter. It was better than the GFS on 1/11-12. Except for its 2-3 run hiccups, it did better than the GFS with the event on 12/26 and the non-event on 12/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Several people have been calling this a clipper...why I don't know Because the northern branch s/w originates in southern Canada and progressively traverses an arc across the northern US without closing off a mid-level center. The storm is not a classic "clipper" storm, but I can see why at quick glance some might call that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its an issue again where the Euro may verify better than the GFS but the problem is that considers all days and not specifically for storms, I tend to believe the GFS more inside 84 hours whent the Euro shows something different, especially this year. Not only that, but currently with the Friday storm the 18z NOGAPS has it further NW than the ECM, and pretty close (if not further NW) to the GFS. The NOGAPS has a south east bias, so that automatically throws the red flag at the ECM saying change your solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ch 7 is more than half decent and they get their forecasts spoonfed from AccuWeather in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 18Z NOGAPs continues to be relatively close to the coast...the NOGAPs was running awfully amplifed with the storm last week, even from beyond day 5 and many forecasters were beating the drum that might indicate a stronger solution which ultimately occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It was better than the GFS on 1/11-12. Except for its 2-3 run hiccups, it did better than the GFS with the event on 12/26 and the non-event on 12/19. The ECM was definitely not better than the GFS on 1/11-12/11. The GFS was the first model to converge onto the correct solution, and the NOGAPS showed the LP further NW for many runs in a row. ECM was lagging pretty far behind other model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The ECM was definitely not better than the GFS on 1/11-12/11. The GFS was the first model to converge onto the correct solution, and the NOGAPS showed the LP further NW for many runs in a row. ECM was lagging pretty far behind other model guidance. I don't recall clearly how the EC looked 7-5 days out, but I know in the 2-4 day range the EC was fairly consistently further NW and wetter than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 18Z NOGAPs continues to be relatively close to the coast...the NOGAPs was running awfully amplifed with the storm last week, even from beyond day 5 and many forecasters were beating the drum that might indicate a stronger solution which ultimately occurred. The NOGAPS has been trending stronger all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't recall clearly how the EC looked 7-5 days out, but I know in the 2-4 day range the EC was fairly consistently further NW and wetter than the GFS. It was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not only that, but currently with the Friday storm the 18z NOGAPS has it further NW than the ECM, and pretty close (if not further NW) to the GFS. The NOGAPS has a south east bias, so that automatically throws the red flag at the ECM saying change your solution. The GEM being west all of a sudden as well when its been progressive all winter is interesting...if you showed me the GEM and asked where the GFS/NAM were I'd tell you inland since they've been west of the GEM all winter...its possible the GEM is just exhibitng a bit of its bias on this storm since the pattern is different than it has been through most of the winter without the extreme -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Solid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The GEM being west all of a sudden as well when its been progressive all winter is interesting...if you showed me the GEM and asked where the GFS/NAM were I'd tell you inland since they've been west of the GEM all winter...its possible the GEM is just exhibitng a bit of its bias on this storm since the pattern is different than it has been through most of the winter without the extreme -NAO. Good point, usually the GGEM was pretty far east while other models were showing a nice east coast storm for many of the storms this year. But since the NAM is showing a similar amped up solution to the GGEM, can we really disregard the GGEM and just say its bias has finally overcome it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seems to me more of the models are coming on-board for the stronger storm. Oddly the ECMWF seems too weak and SE on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GEM being west all of a sudden as well when its been progressive all winter is interesting...if you showed me the GEM and asked where the GFS/NAM were I'd tell you inland since they've been west of the GEM all winter...its possible the GEM is just exhibitng a bit of its bias on this storm since the pattern is different than it has been through most of the winter without the extreme -NAO. The ukmet has also been very progressive (more so than most guidance) and it too has come in with a moderate hit. Not sure if its progressive tendency was a consequence of how it was handling the blocking, but this alerted me to think maybe the further nw robust tracks have more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't recall clearly how the EC looked 7-5 days out, but I know in the 2-4 day range the EC was fairly consistently further NW and wetter than the GFS. Hey Ray, I'm not positive how both models performed compared to eachother with that system, a lot of my time in the long-medium range of the 11th-12th storm was spent dealing with the 7th-9th event...What I do recall though is at one point(couple days?) both op runs had the storm unamplified and drifting out to sea more or less harmlessly while each respective set of ensembles were much more amplified/further nw and alarming for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The ECM was definitely not better than the GFS on 1/11-12/11. The GFS was the first model to converge onto the correct solution, and the NOGAPS showed the LP further NW for many runs in a row. ECM was lagging pretty far behind other model guidance. I agree here. The GFS had the Miller B transfer almost to a T 7 days prior to the event. It was the first model to hint at the storm as well, granted in the medium range it lost it as well. I don't really feel like any of the models has performed rather well this year. Seems like each of the models has had one event in particular that it seemed to stand out with. Euro 12/26 GFS 1/11 in regards to medium/long range. The WRF/NAM has been really good at hinting at dynamic potential of each of the storms as we got into the short term inside 48 hrs. It's been a very difficult winter to forecast that much is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z GEFS means are about 75 miles further NW and more amplified with the surface low compared to 12z. There's a clear trend towards a strong storm with more precipitation on the GFS today beginning with it's 00z runs and continuing with the latest 18z which is a 6" snowfall for a swath of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hey Ray, I'm not positive how both models performed compared to eachother with that system, a lot of my time in the long-medium range of the 11th-12th storm was spent dealing with the 7th-9th event...What I do recall though is at one point(couple days?) both op runs had the storm unamplified and drifting out to sea more or less harmlessly while each respective set of ensembles were much more amplified/further nw and alarming for the event. The ensembles have been NW of the Op runs it seems all season which tends to be rare but given the way its gone this year no shocker there, everything has been more amped and juiced than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hey Ray, I'm not positive how both models performed compared to eachother with that system, a lot of my time in the long-medium range of the 11th-12th storm was spent dealing with the 7th-9th event...What I do recall though is at one point(couple days?) both op runs had the storm unamplified and drifting out to sea more or less harmlessly while each respective set of ensembles were much more amplified/further nw and alarming for the event. That must've been Saturday or before. I know on Sunday when I made my original call of 6-10 for Trenton, I sided most heavily with the EC which was in between the GFS and NAM at the time, and where it pretty much stayed until the storm was upon us. (reminder that the storm was Tuesday night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z GEFS means are about 75 miles further NW and more amplified with the surface low compared to 12z. There's a clear trend towards a strong storm with more precipitation on the GFS today beginning with it's 00z runs and continuing with the latest 18z which is a 6" snowfall for a swath of the area. There are about 5-7 members at H5 that are really amplified. When the sfc progs come out on the eWall, I bet you are going to see bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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