LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:10 AM, earthlight said: Please do not forget about the CRAS..there is still major model support for a bomb. It has 5 inches of liquid in 3 hours over Southern New Hampshire. 956 pressure will shut down the I-95 corridor for months. Thank you. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_072l.gif 956 at 72 hours on the 0z compared to 940 at 84 hours on the 12z. Unfortunately, this model is also trending weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:07 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Its a miracle how models can handle QPF similarly when there isn't a 980mb bomb with banding everywhere Good. No massive lollipops, but no subsidence screwzones either. It's been a while since we've seen a fluffy 3-6 or 4-8 type event here. The pattern isn't supportive of a major snow bomb, but smaller events like these are still possible with the longwave pattern. We wouldn't want a major blowup of a storm from this pattern-it would have a major risk of cutting inland and going to rain for the City and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW here is the 00z NOGAPS @ 156 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Cras tells you why to an extent forecasts blew 50 years ago...it uses satellite data I believe to get its forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 heres the 12z jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Better view of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:14 AM, LVblizzard said: 956 at 72 hours on the 0z compared to 940 at 84 hours on the 12z. Unfortunately, this model is also trending weaker. 10C at 850 over Portsmouth, NH and 0C at 850 near NYC. 2/25/10 redux!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 heres the 12z fim, pretty much in line with the rest of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Another GGEM view for our Philly friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:19 AM, tombo82685 said: another view of the ggem, earlier stages of ant's post Beat you to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:20 AM, earthlight said: Beat you to it lol hahaha i know i saw when i looked at the previous page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I dont know about you guys but i am extatic for a 4-7" snowfall, some are mad (dont know why?)..More or less could fall but this is going to be a solid snowstorm either way..8" would put me at 50" for the season thus far (holy crap) with plenty more on the way... There is some upside here though if the low bombs out a bit faster and hugs the coast, but that would just be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agree with the above post...4-7 would have me approaching or exceeding 50" on the season..which is nearing last years total snowfall. I personally love the moderate events..that stay all light, fluffy snow and jet refresh the winter scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I personally love moderate events also; its just a great refreshing sight to see new snow ontop of old snow. Not to mention, the trees will look lovely again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What does ggem show at 156?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nice moderate event, something we would be dying for only a year or two ago. It couldn't come at a worse time however, I have to travel back to college friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:32 AM, Ji said: What does ggem show at 156?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:31 AM, Chris L said: I personally love moderate events also; its just a great refreshing sight to see new snow ontop of old snow. Not to mention, the trees will look lovely again. This is gonna be a light powdery snow ... the type that doesn't stick well to trees. A wet snow that sticks to the trees/bushes is prettier, but I also like a nice powdery snow sometimes. This one will be easy to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:32 AM, tombo82685 said: that looks VERY WARM...but its the hr168 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:32 AM, tombo82685 said: Surprised it's a coastal hugger with that high there. But good storm on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:35 AM, mattinpa said: Surprised it's a coastal hugger with that high there. But good storm on the GGEM. nothing to hold the high in place, no 50/50 or nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:35 AM, mattinpa said: Surprised it's a coastal hugger with that high there. But good storm on the GGEM. that quasi 50/50 is displaced to far north....it needs to be down just south of labrador.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:32 AM, tombo82685 said: This is where North Atantic Blocking would be a necessity, notice how the high slides off the New England Coast (because there is no 50/50 low to hold it in place) this would most certainly be a snow to rain scenario for the coast. In the type of pattern we are in you don't want a wound up solution because there is nothing upstream to force it off the coast. These 3-6 inch modest events are viable until we see the return of a -NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:37 AM, tombo82685 said: nothing to hold the high in place, no 50/50 or nao OK, thanks. It looked like the GFS would be colder, though. The pattern could get more favorable by then; I don't buy that we absolutely can't get a MECS/HECS. I take it the GGEM is like the GFS for Friday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:26 AM, earthlight said: Agree with the above post...4-7 would have me approaching or exceeding 50" on the season..which is nearing last years total snowfall. i think a sustained period of heavy snow is what makes a snowstorm satisfying. if a 4-7" event features a 2 hour period of sustained heavy snow, then it's a fantastic experience in my book. many hundreds of millions of people on earth will live their whole lives without ever experiencing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:32 AM, Sn0waddict said: Nice moderate event, something we would be dying for only a year or two ago. It couldn't come at a worse time however, I have to travel back to college friday My brother and his wife are supposed to be flying out of JFK Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:40 AM, green tube said: i think a sustained period of heavy snow is what makes a snowstorm satisfying. if a 4-7" event features a 2 hour period of sustained heavy snow, then it's a fantastic experience in my book. many hundreds of millions of people on earth will live their whole lives without ever experiencing it. You're right about that - the heavy snow period can really make a storm fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:35 AM, mattinpa said: Surprised it's a coastal hugger with that high there. But good storm on the GGEM. High's moving east off Newfoundland. It's a classic setup for the Appalachians verbatim, not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.