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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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I will personally wait until Wed 0z Runs or even 12Z thurs before coming to any final conclusions with this storm. Especially if one or two models (Nam, GGEM) are still showing a bigger hit. As of Now I would say there is a pretty good Chance of a decent 3-6 event but potential for more..

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Let's talk about the Friday storm here and not so much about who has been or will be getting shafted. Posts about that will be immediately deleted.

Also, the subforum is not being split. Sorry.

am19psu - thanks for not splitting the subforum or model/threat threads. If you don't mind, I'll throw in a couple of comments from my soapbox: these model/threat threads would be far less cluttered if 75% of the non-pros simply refrained from posting in them or at least greatly reduced how often they post in them. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I know that I know more about meteorology than most non-pros (or at least about the fundamentals, like momentum, heat and mass transfer, physical chemistry, numerical modeling and thermodynamics - a PhD in chem eng'g does that for you), yet I rarely post in the model/threat threads, since I know the pros (and some selected non-pros) still know a lot more than I do and I'd rather not clutter up these threads. If more non-pros would simply read more and post less in these threads, it would likely make the threads much better and easier to read. In addition, there are tons of people in NJ, like me, who I'm sure really appreciate seeing the whole region discussed, as it's geographically small and insights from one area often apply to the other, plus it avoids dilution of the precious pro met talent. As an aside, I don't mind the observation threads being separated, as I'm rarely looking for pro insight in those - it's much more about what's going on, which anyone is qualified to post about. Off the soapbox.

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