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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Albany maintaining snow likely in all there Berkshire forecasts. This storm should also come to fruition as the seasonal trend continues.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE IS LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR

AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL /AND POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY/ TO

DEVELOP AS A SHARP 500 HPA TROF TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT

LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT

REACHES THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL

SPAWN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW

DEEP WILL THE LOW GET AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL THE LOW

DEEPEN? AS OF NOW...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE TOTAL

QPF BASED ON THE EITHER MORE OR LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS

THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEEPENING THE LOW JUST EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND

TRACKING IT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE

TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS AT THIS

TIME...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON

FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE LOW DEEPENS TOO

FAR TO THE EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ENSEMBLES/PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH CLUSTERING OF

LOW AND HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE SREFS. SO AT THIS TIME

WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS AND CALL FOR LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE

SNOWFALL SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE

SOLUTION. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN

THE HWO. TEMP PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...WITH

RATIOS LIKELY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.-- End Changed Discussion --

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says the guy who has Miley Cyrus posters on his bedroom wall.

I only have two...one is a poster of The Last Song and the other is one I made...the third one isn't a poster..it's just a paper bag that says Hannah Montana Forever on it b/c that was the name of the final season which just ended Sunday night.

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Albany also setting the table for the weekend threat.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS

POINT...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH WILL

BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BROADER TROUGH WITH LOW

PRESSURE AT THE SFC FORMING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF ON THE OTHER

HAND...HAS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF INDICATES THE COASTAL LOW WILL

BECOME A SFC CLOSED LOW...WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE NY CANADIAN

BORDER FOLLOWING THE SFC LOW. GFS WEAKENS ITS GREAT LAKES LOW AS IT

MOVES ACROSS THE NE US...LIMITING ANY PRECIP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL

HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER.

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This made me LOL. Ginx leading the pack with "-NAO" tatooed on his chest.

I want my block back.

Back in July we were three guys who were considered extreme weenies, heavy snow in a Nina winter, multiple stream storms?, what a bunch of weenies'

I am only 4 away from my average Jan 18th

Tattoo this big boy.

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LOL, such sour grapes that you didn't have the vision to see this would be an epic Winter. I should go back and dig up all your nervous Nellie posts about how Winter would be over by January, how if we didn't capitalize in December we werre cooked. Rev Kev outlook phail.

But hey, we're cool, we'd still let you into the club.

This

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I want my block back.

Back in July we were three guys who were considered extreme weenies, heavy snow in a Nina winter, multiple stream storms?, what a bunch of weenies'

I am only 4 away from my average Jan 18th

Tattoo this big boy.

I'm already over my average seasonal snowfall. Everything else I receive is gravy at this point.

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