Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z looks like an improvement from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WSWs up for 4-6" from MO through OH. An intensifying system plus Atlantic moisture should yield at least twice that for New England. HPC snow probs mildly bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how many times this season have we seen storms look too far away even up to two days prior only to come west and nail us? Still literally days for this thing to trend. CoT will win again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z GFS cuts the NAM QPF in half for who? 18z is an improvement over 12z gfs for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Friday event is mainly a southern new England threat fixed it for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 for who? 18z is an improvement over 12z gfs for sne. Um everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WSWs up for 4-6" from MO through OH. An intensifying system plus Atlantic moisture should yield at least twice that for New England. HPC snow probs mildly bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Um everyone Um apples vs oranges? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GYX: "AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LOW WILL TRACK OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD PRODUCE ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW" Appears they aren't riding the NAM until it's wrong. And by the way, it wasn't exactly stellar today.....in fact if you look at the 8h scores it would have been probably an even split after 12z today on the 0z run. The only person actually suggesting we "ride the NAM until it's wrong" is SnowNH, who is quite possibly the biggest weenie on the forums at this time and should not only be limited to 5 posts a day, but 5 words per post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how many times this season have we seen storms look too far away even up to two days prior only to come west and nail us? Still literally days for this thing to trend. CoT will win again I agree the trend of this season is starting from se of bench mark and nudge nw in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF THURSDAY AND DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN STATES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM AND GGEM AND 15Z SREF ARE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AND THE ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ABOUT 1 DEGREE OR SO OUTSIDE/EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND WHICH BRINGS PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. COMBINED MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT IS FORECAST IN THE DENDRITE ZONE FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...WE HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO ALL SNOW...BUT THE TRACKS OF THE NAM-GGEM-SREF WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how many times this season have we seen storms look too far away even up to two days prior only to come west and nail us? Still literally days for this thing to trend. CoT will win again That's what happens when you deal with system that have such an extreme negative tilt...not sure how many times it has to happen for everyone to realize this. When you're dealing with a strongly negatively tilted system the storm is going to track as far west as possible within the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Um everyone comparing NAM to GFS QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's way too early to be arguing QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 comparing NAM to GFS QPF. True, but you know Blizz is already la la locking up the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 comparing NAM to GFS QPF. LOL, I guess the MA guys are bored. This will be another hit in the end. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I still view this as a mod event, but I'm open to adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The only person actually suggesting we "ride the NAM until it's wrong" is SnowNH, who is quite possibly the biggest weenie on the forums at this time and should not only be limited to 5 posts a day, but 5 words per post. wiz said that too maybe it does go ots but I'm banking on a nw trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how many times this season have we seen storms look too far away even up to two days prior only to come west and nail us? Still literally days for this thing to trend. CoT will win again "CoT" What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 I still view this as a mod event, but I'm open to adjustments. I'm going to stick with that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 "CoT" What does this mean? Circle Of Trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wiz said that too maybe it does go ots but I'm banking on a nw trend Yeah I did but I have a reason. The NAM has been handling the negative tilt of the troughs much better than the other models and when the negative tilt occurs which is why we've been seeing the NAM more west than other models...notice how as we've gotten closer to events we finally see the other models come around to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Dear god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I still view myself as straight, but I'm open to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 "CoT" What does this mean? Six guys in a circle jerk trusting each other with their weenies in hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Six guys in a circle jerk trusting each other with their weenies in hands This made me LOL. Ginx leading the pack with "-NAO" tatooed on his chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You people are odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm going to stick with that as well. No piece of guidance at any point, other than the long range NAM and GEM, has ever modeled this as more than a 4-8" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This made me LOL. Ginx leading the pack with "-NAO" tatooed on his chest. LOL...just picture all of them standing around in a circle up on Brokeback..MRG's hair blowing in all their faces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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