Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 At 72 this run is colder than the 12z which was going to deliver a lot of precip into marginal temps through the column. This looks better. Looks like it's bombing out as it hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM is plenty cold in SE NE for a change...even the clown graphics 1000-850 which if anything have tended to be a little north of the actual r/s line all winter are south of the Cape while this is going on. IMO it's Phil's turn anyway. I had mine the first system of the year, you've all had yours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like it's bombing out as it hits us. Perfect position for the inevitable NW trend to commence so we cash in here in WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Perfect position for the inevitable trend to commence so I cash in here in WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 1"+ qpf for the south coast and eastern mass cape and islands, just a classic track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Perfect position for the inevitable NW trend to commence so we cash in here in WNE. agree....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Perfect position for the inevitable NW trend to commence so we cash in here in WNE. negatively inverted troughs = west, west, west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Perfect position for the inevitable NW trend to commence so we cash in here in WNE. LOL which ignores the fact that the last three runs of the NAM have ticked SE towards all the other guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I know its early, but any mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow banks are already dangerously high around here. Pulling out of most streets is becoming very hazardous because you just can't see oncoming traffic if your not in an SUV or truck. Oh, I wish I could stick around for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I know its early, but any mixing? For southern areas there's always a threat of mixing. In fact I'm down to a slushy 2-3 inches on the ground now and it's continuing to melt. But where you are in NE Rhode Island I'd be worrying more about this storm passing too far SE than mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For southern areas there's always a threat of mixing. In fact I'm down to a slushy 2-3 inches on the ground now and it's continuing to melt. But where you are in NE Rhode Island I'd be worrying more about this storm passing too far SE than mixing. Must have me confused with the other SnowMan...I am in NE Mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LOL which ignores the fact that the last three runs of the NAM have ticked SE towards all the other guidance.... Keep telling me it won't happen, it's worked very well so far this season. Ask Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Must have me confused with the other SnowMan...I am in NE Mass... How much snow did you get on the 26th of December, and last week? I only had a combined 13-14 inches from both storms..with rain mixed in and big ole dryslots because both storms tracked so close to the coast. As a snow lover I'd rather live on the North Shore than the South Coast. Except for the fact that swimming in the ocean isn't as fun with the colder water temps up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LOL which ignores the fact that the last three runs of the NAM have ticked SE towards all the other guidance.... Other guidance, right..... I can't remember which storm it was where the NAM was about 250 miles NW of all of the other guidance and it happened to verify....A storm where it took the Ukie until 6 hours out to finally get the track of the storm right? Ride the NAM until its wrong. It has been remarkable during this pattern, it nailed the Jan 12th storm's exact track about 48 hours out. I could def see a similar type deal to the Jan 12 noreaster, maybe a little less. 10-18 spot 20 amounts. If the NAM showed a DUD and GFS showed a bomb, I would still say the same thing.. Thankfully the trend this year has been to the NW about 72 hours to 48 hours out. We are 72 hours out now, so why should we not expect a NW shift in the 00z and 12z models tonight and tomorrow? Why shouldn't we ride the SREF, NAM combo until they are significantly wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow! that looks like a solid sne hit,cant wait until friday.I hope we dont mix on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of meh, but have two more storm chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Other guidance, right..... I can't remember which storm it was where the NAM was about 250 miles NW of all of the other guidance and it happened to verify....A storm where it took the Ukie until 6 hours out to finally get the track of the storm right? Ride the NAM until its wrong. It has been remarkable during this pattern, it nailed the Jan 12th storm's exact track about 48 hours out. I could def see a similar type deal to the Jan 12 noreaster, maybe a little less. 10-18 spot 20 amounts. If the NAM showed a DUD and GFS showed a bomb, I would still say the same thing.. Thankfully the trend this year has been to the NW about 72 hours to 48 hours out. We are 72 hours out now, so why should we not expect a NW shift in the 00z and 12z models tonight and tomorrow? Why shouldn't we ride the SREF, NAM combo until they are significantly wrong? Good luck with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 1"+ qpf for the south coast and eastern mass cape and islands, just a classic track. 1" equal 15 inches??????? Perhaps???? What are the expected ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of meh, but have two more storm chances next week. But? Did you hurt your arm throwing in the towel? Let's go, GFS - be predictable and give us something to toss out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 But? Did you hurt your arm throwing in the towel? Let's go, GFS - be predictable and give us something to toss out the window. I'm not throwing in the towel. I'll be happy with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not throwing in the towel. I'll be happy with 2-4". Yeahhh...that's throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NCEP down for everyone else, too? EDIT: That was brief, never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LOl..we're fine for a big hit on Friday. Everything on board except the Euro which still gives a nice 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GYX: "AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LOW WILL TRACK OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD PRODUCE ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW" Appears they aren't riding the NAM until it's wrong. And by the way, it wasn't exactly stellar today.....in fact if you look at the 8h scores it would have been probably an even split after 12z today on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GYX: "AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LOW WILL TRACK OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD PRODUCE ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW" Appears they aren't riding the NAM until it's wrong. And by the way, it wasn't exactly stellar today.....in fact if you look at the 8h scores it would have been probably an even split after 12z today on the 0z run. The Friday event is mainly a southern and Central new England threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OKX left it even more wide open: RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN TROUGHMOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY WILL DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY PASSING THE AREA FRIDAY. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FARTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. WITH COLDER AIR BACK IN PLACE BY THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS A POT ENTAIL FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER TO THE WEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z GFS cuts the NAM QPF in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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