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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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This thread has gotten absolutely unreadable. It's worse than any mid atl thread ever has been.

sometimes I think you get more satisfaction out of what is forecasted versus what actually falls. you'd be happy as long as people called for your 6-12" even if it didn't verify.

I'll hand it to you...your forecast often pan out better than people give you credit for...but I don't think this will be one of those times it pans out.

although I do agree people shouldn't be all bent out of shape over a light 2-4" event.

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sometimes I think you get more satisfaction out of what is forecasted versus what actually falls. you'd be happy as long as people called for your 6-12" even if it didn't verify.

I'll hand it to you...your forecast often pan out better than people give you credit for...but I don't think this will be one of those times it pans out.

although I do agree people shouldn't be all bent out of shape over a light 2-4" event.

hopefully this is a deal where models don't catch on till tommorrow lol. as messenger said....uh let wait till the sw that makes up the base of this trough get out the rockies....ya ...that sounds good to me.

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hopefully this is a deal where models don't catch on till tommorrow lol. as messenger said....uh let wait till the sw that makes up the base of this trough get out the rockies....ya ...that sounds good to me.

The northern disturbance was basically over the NW Territory on the 12Z runs, that might be too far north...it sure was for the 12/26 event where it seemed the models were north fully latched onto it til it neared the border.

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Who knows?

The 0z runs should have a better handle on both systems.

Kind of surprised at how much snow the Boston mets are forecasting. Bouchard is talking about ocean effect too?

Im surprised too, Im wondering if Im missing something

Bouchard says this too

Friday: Snow is likely through the morning and early afternoon. How much is still in question as the models are split 50/50. Some say nearly a foot, others say just a few inches. I'd say for now we'll call it a chance of 6" of snow Friday morning/early afternoon. Highs in the mid 20s so it's a light, fluffy snow.

Ive been away all day so Im not sure where hes getting this

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It snowed in ct today? Lowest temp I see on the sne roundup is 35?

Oh come on, temps? It snowed...it didn't stick, but it snowed :axe:

Everyone keeps looking at each run and throwing it aside when it shows, as nearly every one before it has, a 2-5 or 3-6 event. I don't get it. That is likely what it is. Right now it is time to hope for those high ratios to get the higher range of the totals.

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Oh come on, temps? It snowed...it didn't stick, but it snowed :axe:

Everyone keeps looking at each run and throwing it aside when it shows, as nearly every one before it has, a 2-5 or 3-6 event. I don't get it. That is likely what it is. Right now it is time to hope for those high ratios to get the higher range of the totals.

Ultra low ratio snows!

Every Boston met has a moderate regionwide snow event Friday. 5/9 or 6/10 is the common theme.

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Ultra low ratio snows!

Every Boston met has a moderate regionwide snow event Friday. 5/9 or 6/10 is the common theme.

Indeed :lol: it almost made the rain more painful as it transitioned to even 100% snow for a time! Ugh.

That is unbelievable. I'm catching up here and seeing some graphics that look like they were done by weenies. They thinking it comes in close, we get mega ratios, it slows, what? Maybe all of the above?

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Even Matt Noyes from Necn is saying with this set up it favors a widespread plowable snowfall for all of New England. ? he has the low tracking right near cape cod?? He is a very good met maybe he is on to something. not looking at models. may be using experience?

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Indeed :lol: it almost made the rain more painful as it transitioned to even 100% snow for a time! Ugh.

That is unbelievable. I'm catching up here and seeing some graphics that look like they were done by weenies. They thinking it comes in close, we get mega ratios, it slows, what? Maybe all of the above?

Beats me, doesnt matter much either way until post 0z

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Tweet from Noyes

Understanding that uncertainty, the weather pattern favors a 6"+ snowfall for all of Southern half New England Friday.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS QPF AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...WE CAME UP WITH

AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF POTENTIAL 6 INCH

AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. WE ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A

WATCH AT THIS TIME. WHILE OUR AMOUNTS ARE BORDERLINE AND WOULD

JUSTIFY AN EVENTUAL WARNING...THEY ARE TRENDING LESS FROM AMOUNTS

GENERATED FOR THIS STORM YESTERDAY AND ANY FURTHER DRIFT TOWARD LESS

WOULD KEEP THE AREA BELOW THE 6 INCH WARNING CRITERIA.

6-12" region wide Kev. La, la lock it up!:deadhorse:

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That WSI-WRF simulated model used by NECN and WBZ has the rain/snow line getting up to Foxboro to Hingham on its most recent update <BR><BR>Looks pretty impressive for central New England southward (and DE ME)

I'm guessing it's the in house models driving some of the forecast. Not one of the resident mets here has felt anything like those amounts are likely ATM.

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I don't think any "NW trend" has anything to do with us receiving more snowfall, this is a very progressive system, much more progressive than any other system we have seen this year, precip is only going to be falling in a 5-8 hr span. This system is not strong enough to produce lift good enough to generate 2''+ per hour totals. At the height of the heaviest snowfall were probably looking at 1''/HR rates...maybe 1.5''/HR.

This is a good 2-4/3-6'' type deal with potentially isolated higher amounts across eastern sections of MA.

Forget what "trends" occurred with other systems, this system is nothing similar to any of those, were not even seeing this thing close off anywhere, were pretty close to the event, were not going to all of a sudden see models start closing off this system at 850 and 700.

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