Boston-winter08 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 northern stream energy appears a tad stronger, but the southern stream is holding back out to 30h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 LOL..at all the folks giving up..based on the SREf's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 15z ETA has the southern s/w that the 12z NAM had and takes the low offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No arguments, agree with all that will said and Scott. It could still trend better too, but a conservative starting point is wise. It's probably an advisory deal..maybe someone breaks in with 7" as of now. No way would I go 6-12" for all of sne at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 oh well. Win for the conservative crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 oh well. Win for the conservative crew. To be fair, it was modeled to be more robust when you made your map. I'm just saying the way things look now, I'd have a tough time seeing double digit numbers for many. Maybe it changes at 00z, but I think we would need some large changes, and we are getting within 36 hrs of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's probably an advisory deal..maybe someone breaks in with 7" as of now. No way would I go 6-12" for all of sne at this stage of the game. I think most all of us agree in totality. Tonights 0z should seal the deal in terms of leans either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 To be fair, it was modeled to be more robust when you made your map. I'm just saying the way things look now, I'd have a tough time seeing double digit numbers for many. Maybe it changes at 00z, but I think we would need some large changes, and we are getting within 36 hrs of the event. I wonder if we are back to this southern s/w energy coming in faster than modeled. Remember that event back in Dec. that was modeled to be a bid hit within 48h and went poof as the southern energy scooted offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 To be fair, it was modeled to be more robust when you made your map. I'm just saying the way things look now, I'd have a tough time seeing double digit numbers for many. Maybe it changes at 00z, but I think we would need some large changes, and we are getting within 36 hrs of the event. It seems like many are calling this a complete miss lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This 18z nam runs not going to cut it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How do the Euro ens look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 wow 15 eta is bone dry......lp scoots off the southern ma. everything is going in the wrong direction.........damn ss. Think my call of 2-6 might be way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How do the Euro ens look? Looks similar to the op...maybe a pube west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I wonder if we are back to this southern s/w energy coming in faster than modeled. Remember that event back in Dec. that was modeled to be a bid hit within 48h and went poof as the southern energy scooted offshore? Yeah, when was that? I think it was mid month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 It seems like many are calling this a complete miss lol. It's certainly not going to be 6-12" on the 18z NAM or 15z SREF's. Care to add something to the current discussion other than "You wait and see."? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 To be fair, it was modeled to be more robust when you made your map. I'm just saying the way things look now, I'd have a tough time seeing double digit numbers for many. Maybe it changes at 00z, but I think we would need some large changes, and we are getting within 36 hrs of the event. It was modeled a little more robust, but like Ray was saying, no model actually indicated a solid MECS like I was pushing at. I just saw a set up I really liked and ran with it. Shortwave interaction just not working out this time. I get screwed almost everytime I'm spontaneous and go more "political" like campaigning for a storm like a few meteorologists do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, when was that? I think it was mid month or so. I think it was the Dec 5-10 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's certainly not going to be 6-12" on the 18z NAM or 15z SREF's. Care to add something to the current discussion other than "You wait and see."? I am just hoping we dont get a revision from the good Rev.........dont want to see a downward adjustement to 5-10 or 4-8!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll say Kevin ends up between 3.5 and 4.5'' of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like a nice 2-4''/3-6'' event on the NAM. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's certainly not going to be 6-12" on the 18z NAM or 15z SREF's. Care to add something to the current discussion other than "You wait and see."? Of course it's not on those 2 pieces of crap. garbage in garbage out. Sometimes you have to "see past" the model qpf depiction. Care to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks similar to the op...maybe a pube west of it. Could make a difference if it verified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll say Kevin ends up between 3.5 and 4.5'' of snowfall. I didn't have my hopes up for this one, but if I can pull out 2", I will tie last years total season amount, and be right about average. What I am scared of, is any cold rain event that may develop next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks similar to the op...maybe a pube west of it. Thanks AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yikes no positive trend on the nam yet. IMO in reality it paints the ccb way way offshore and we get a dusting to a few inches regionwide. 18z nam is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NAM still hinting at a band of fluff well ahead of any developing snow. That might help out areas that are removed from the good moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Of course it's not on those 2 pieces of crap. garbage in garbage out. Sometimes you have to "see past" the model qpf depiction. Care to do that? Whose looking at the QPF depiction. I've been paying attention to the 500 maps. The trend has not been your friend for a 6-12" widespread SNE snow event. The 18z NAM, once again, has the rogue s/w out ahead of the main trough that jack things up. What model do you actually like these days? It seems like you've trashed them all, the Euro included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think this is quickly turning into a 1-3"/2-4" event. Hopefully it doesn't trend away. Then again, if it does, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I didn't have my hopes up for this one, but if I can pull out 2", I will tie last years total season amount, and be right about average. What I am scared of, is any cold rain event that may develop next week. Nothing to worry about next week...if we get an event it's going to be mainly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When I saw 1-25-03 come up as a top upper-air analog on CIPS I knew that couldn't be a good sign.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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