Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Per Jeff via Facebook this morning, Boston has already hit its seasonal number... so I cannot help but agree with your post. I think most of us in extreme southern and eastern areas have met or exceeded seasonal averages. Pretty amazing thought given we till have another ~80 days where we have a legit shot at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 34.7\34 After a 5" snowfall yesterday, I have probably compacted about 4", in large part due to a monsoon last evening because I have yet to break 35* throughout this entire ordeal. I estimate about a 1" net gain, at the moment.....drips continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think I made this exact post about another recent storm: I have no "expectations" and my "threshold of satisfaction" is low for this storm. That does not mean I'm going to jump up and down with balloons and a parade over model runs that have trended worse. Who would actually look at the 12z runs and say "YES!! WOOOHOOO! I get substantially less snow than the 06z runs, but I still get something! LIFE IS GOOD! Calling all members of the Circle Jerk of Trust for a special 'meeting' to celebrate the mediocre 12z models!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think I made this exact post about another recent storm: I have no "expectations" and my "threshold of satisfaction" is low for this storm. That does not mean I'm going to jump up and down with balloons and a parade over model runs that have trended worse. Who would actually look at the 12z runs and say "YES!! WOOOHOOO! I get substantially less snow than the 06z runs, but I still get something! LIFE IS GOOD! Calling all members of the Circle Jerk of Trust for a special 'meeting' to celebrate the mediocre 12z models!" Oh, yea...12z runs are dissapointing because I alway want more, but my expectations relative to this potential were always in check.....and we just had a truly historic event, thus I don't feel the need to carry on about it. Feel free, though....I of all people, have no issues with whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Oh, yea...12z runs are dissapointing because I alway want more, but my expectations relative to this potential were always in check.....and we just had a truly historic event, thus I don't feel the need to carry on about it. Feel free, though....I of all people, have no issues with whining. I'm definitely not whining about this. I made one simple post: The 12z models are disappointing. FACT... IMO Whining was when I was getting hours of horrendous snow growth at the start of the Boxing Day storm ... though as someone pointed out, that was also factual observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Even that hated 12z GFS run gave me a nice advisory event, AWT. Any favorable shift is going to get us a warning thanks to the fluff factor. 110121/0600Z 42 VRB02KT 25.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.2 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0900Z 45 13004KT 26.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 1.0 0.059|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1200Z 48 VRB02KT 27.7F SNOW 18:1| 1.9|| 2.9 0.102|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110121/1500Z 51 32009KT 27.9F SNOW 15:1| 1.1|| 4.0 0.071|| 0.25 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is a perfect example right here.. the fact that there is at least one model that shows a warning event is huge right now especially with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Anything approaching .5" on the models will be a 7-10" storm. My expectations are 1/2 that right now. I think 3/6 4:8 is a reasonable expectation accounting for ratios from Roughly boston providence and southeast. The rgem is 5/6 mb stronger than American guidance off jersey. We should get clarity later today/tonight Euro should help the lean in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 quick question, where can i find those outragous clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm definitely not whining about this. I made one simple post: The 12z models are disappointing. FACT... IMO Whining was when I was getting hours of horrendous snow growth at the start of the Boxing Day storm ... though as someone pointed out, that was also factual observation I'd define what you are doing regarding the 12z models as grousing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Rgem ggem ukmet are all fine for us. The nam will sort it out in the next six to 12 hours. Euro will hopefully drop around .5 in eastern areas to put minds at ease Why is it always about eastern areas? Everyone is getting a snowstorm out of this. It's not an ENE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Why is it always about eastern areas? Everyone is getting a snowstorm out of this. It's not an ENE forum Violence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think 3/6 4:8 is a reasonable expectation accounting for ratios from Roughly boston providence and southeast. The rgem is 5/6 mb stronger than American guidance off jersey. We should get clarity later today/tonight Euro should help the lean in a few minutes. With the ratios it's 3-6 widespread in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Violence? More grousing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Why is it always about eastern areas? Everyone is getting a snowstorm out of this. It's not an ENE forum Because eastern areas will see more snow out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Why is it always about eastern areas? Everyone is getting a snowstorm out of this. It's not an ENE forum Population perhaps? higher consentrations fo snow weinies per capita? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Violence? Lol..a little. Everyone of his posts are about ENE..It's fine to talk about YBY..but it's like that for everyone storm..how can ENE get the most snow etc.. Discuss the whole region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Because eastern areas will see more snow out of this? His point was, as often happens, the discussion was mentioning eastern areas only when in reality this is a widespread advisory event for all of SNE. We aren't getting flurries and eastern areas aren't going to be getting 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Lol..a little. Everyone of his posts is about ENE..It's fine to talk about YBY..but it's like that for everyone storm..how can ENE get the most snow etc.. Discuss the whole region We all do it Kevin, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 While there's a good chance that we can receive good snow ratios, people shouldn't automatically assume its going to happen. Its certainly possible that if the best lift stays just E of us, we could be left with needles falling and 20F temps which won't get you much better than 10 or 12 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Why is it always about eastern areas? Everyone is getting a snowstorm out of this. It's not an ENE forum Because I was talking to another poster from ene or i would have quoted someone else? Not hard to understand really.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 His point was, as often happens, the discussion was mentioning eastern areas only when in reality this is a widespread advisory event for all of SNE. We aren't getting flurries and eastern areas aren't going to be getting 12-18. Correct.. certian posters only focus on SENE and try and find ways that every storm has to be an ENE jackpot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm definitely not whining about this. I made one simple post: The 12z models are disappointing. FACT... IMO Whining was when I was getting hours of horrendous snow growth at the start of the Boxing Day storm ... though as someone pointed out, that was also factual observation You sound like me, pre-HECS. "Dissapointing" is a relative characterization; maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think that the majority of posters view today's suite as that dissapointing because expectations were correctly and justifiably tempered by the fact that the long range NAM and GEM were the only two models to ever imply this had a MECS\HECS ceiling.....and due to the fact that we just saw one of the most incredible events that we will ever witness and are already on a record setting pace. You're right.....whining was a poor choice of words on my part and for that I apologize, but I feel that your ill founded view of just how much potential this event ever really had has set you up for this "dissapointment"...perhaps that is a better way to put it. Excessive expectations breed dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Lol..a little. Everyone of his posts are about ENE..It's fine to talk about YBY..but it's like that for everyone storm..how can ENE get the most snow etc.. Discuss the whole region How many pissing matches are you able to start in one day before someone takes your keyboard away? I live in ENE. When I was responding to bob in eastern MA I spokenof eastern mass. Not hard to understand. You want to know why I didn't specifically talk about areas to the west? Because you said you got a text from a pro indicating he'd have a blog out, and thought you'd get a foot. I figured any mention at all of anything less than the foot or 6-12 would set you off AGAIN. Little did I know you'd go off on a tangent yet again anyway. When you say lundberg says he thinks a foot for you via text i figured it best to not pOst anything less than 11.9" for your area to avoid what you just started. So I didn't say anything about your area and you STILL found something to b**ch about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Correct.. certian posters only focus on SENE and try and find ways that every storm has to be an ENE jackpot.. I think it's because everyone has a MBY focus to some degree and most of the experienced/knowledgeable posters and mets here are from eastern areas. But, this time, there is something for everyone. When I post my BDR data it's not only MBY but to show in this instance, hey, far western me is getting some so we're all going to be winners to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How many pissing matches are you able to start in one day before someone takes your keyboard away? I live in ENE. When I was responding to bob in eastern MA I spokenof eastern mass. Not hard to understand. You want to know why I didn't specifically talk about areas to the west? Because you said you got a text from a pro indicating he'd have a blog out, and thought you'd get a foot. I figured any mention at all of anything less than the foot or 6-12 would set you off AGAIN. Little did I know you'd go off on a tangent yet again anyway. Didn't Will ask you to keep it on topic? Hopefully everyone gets 6-12 which looks likely at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You guys think my posts are bad? Go reread the last 3 pages lol... Good thing Maury isn't on here.. everyone relax We are having a record year! Btw.. rain changing to snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Didn't Will ask you to keep it on topic? Hopefully everyone gets 6-12 which looks likely at this time So, will you be reporting your obs from within Messenger's head from now on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think I made this exact post about another recent storm: I have no "expectations" and my "threshold of satisfaction" is low for this storm. That does not mean I'm going to jump up and down with balloons and a parade over model runs that have trended worse. Who would actually look at the 12z runs and say "YES!! WOOOHOOO! I get substantially less snow than the 06z runs, but I still get something! LIFE IS GOOD! Calling all members of the Circle Jerk of Trust for a special 'meeting' to celebrate the mediocre 12z models!" Why you dogging COT stuff, nobody said ****e, bad Sammy bad Sammy, bad JUJU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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