Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

There is a big disconnect here from those expecting something large and others expecting an advisory event. I expect the latter and have for the entire time but naturally want more.

For example, this is fine for me from the 12z NAM...not much precip to work with but good ratios, AWT.

110121/0600Z  42  11004KT  27.5F  SNOW    12:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.012|| 0.01 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110121/0700Z  43  10004KT  27.7F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 0.4    0.028|| 0.04 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/0800Z  44  07005KT  27.5F  SNOW    10:1| 0.2|| 0.7    0.024|| 0.06 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/0900Z  45  07007KT  27.0F  SNOW    10:1| 0.3|| 1.0    0.031|| 0.09 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1000Z  46  07007KT  26.6F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 1.3    0.031|| 0.13 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1100Z  47  07008KT  26.6F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 1.6    0.028|| 0.15 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1200Z  48  07008KT  26.4F  SNOW    15:1| 0.3|| 2.0    0.024|| 0.18 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110121/1300Z  49  07008KT  26.4F  SNOW    15:1| 0.3|| 2.3    0.020|| 0.20 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1400Z  50  05007KT  26.8F  SNOW    15:1| 0.3|| 2.6    0.020|| 0.22 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1500Z  51  02007KT  27.0F  SNOW    17:1| 0.5|| 3.0    0.028|| 0.24 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1600Z  52  36008KT  26.8F  SNOW    21:1| 0.6|| 3.6    0.028|| 0.27 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1700Z  53  35009KT  26.2F  SNOW    21:1| 0.6|| 4.2    0.028|| 0.30 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110121/1800Z  54  34010KT  26.4F  SNOW    18:1| 0.4|| 4.6    0.020|| 0.32 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110121/1900Z  55  33010KT  26.8F  SNOW    15:1| 0.2|| 4.7    0.012|| 0.33 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

Where can I find that data?

[Kbosch]

Where can I find that data?

Here's mine, you can put your station in: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbdr.dat

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd probably split the difference and lean toward heavier. The bias all season has been to under estimate the northern stream...in almost every storm. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this come in a little more amplified in the next 24 hours. I don't think it will be a huge event by any means, but I could see a low end warning criteria for most of the region (like 5-8" or so)....snow ratios could be very high in this though, so we'll have to keep an eye out. Its a cold storm. If we get ideal dendritic growth, then we could see 20 to 1 ratios.

We couldn't agree more; though it undoubtedly wasn't your intention, you have illustrated my thoughts beautifully.

Widespread mod event, with high ratio, oes contributing to lollis of more near favored shoreline locales.

[MJHUB]

Here's mine, you can put your station in: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbdr.dat

KPVD had 6.9 inches.....perfect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just remember how great the snowgrowth was in that storm. Huge fat fluffy flakes. That storm kicked off an epic winter.

You will def. beat me, this go around.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I wouldn't if I were you. 00z runs tonight are gonna make this a much bigger deal. Watch..and wait

Based on what? What is going to change meteorologically speaking that will take the gfs/nam/rgem into anything but a light to moderate event?

[CoastalWx]

You will def. beat me, this go around.

My snow has compacted/melted a lot. It would be nice to build it back up by at least a few inches. Friday should be a fluff storm, so 0.3" qpf will do a lot better than it looks imo. There is still time for it to tick nw too, but I'd like to see the euro hold serve.

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on what? What is going to change meteorologically speaking that will take the gfs/nam/rgem into anything but a light to moderate event?

Pattern recognition, and the fact that all the northern stream systems this winter have trended stonger and juicier as we get in close. It's not rocket science. 6-12 out of this is very easy

[Typhoon Tip]

John, the CPC teleconnectors show the NAO is slightly positive and falling negative. It does appear to be a central or east based -NAO though. You can see a big ridge in the central Atlantic at 60 hours with a 564 dm height line east of Greenland. I don't know if that changes your thinking on this event, however.

Thanks for update! yea, not really, particularly because of that east based characteristic as you allude; for obvious reasons has less factorization on the orientation and flow characteristics than the west version.

That said, we have seen a propensity for retrograding blocks at high latitudes this season. It would probably be reasonable based on seasonal trend to suspect if that block evolves there, it then would find its way to D-Straight a few days later...through central Canada. Say 2 weeks from now?

That could be a real tasty thing to look for with a +PNA and a (finally) activated MJO wave of moderate strength now entering phase 7. There's our next histrionic terrocane on the eastern seaboard... early mid Feb (also climotology likes that range for the apex event(s)) - just something to think about for now.

As for now, again we are plagued with the fast flow off the SE coast and S/W's being damped upon trying to pass through... For those not outrightly versed, "damping" in this context is a bad thing. BUT, it can be over come by the NJ Model low and the rapid job up under LI passing off CC - I dont' think that potential is yet stiffled in this. Thought admittedly, folks like to see the low actually on the chart

we'll see.

[CoastalWx]

Hard to tell, but the ensemble may be a little more west or southwest with the low. Perhaps a bit slower than the op?

[OKpowdah]

Based on what? What is going to change meteorologically speaking that will take the gfs/nam/rgem into anything but a light to moderate event?

Northern stream digs more (as has been a common "correction vector" this winter) and has a more complete phase with the southern stream energy. Thus we close off at H7 over SE MA, just in time to wallop eastern New England.

That's what ***can*** happen

[ORH_wxman]

Hard to tell, but the ensemble may be a little more west or southwest with the low. Perhaps a bit slower than the op?

A bit stronger than the OP too, so I guess that's good news.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Hard to tell, but the ensemble may be a little more west or southwest with the low. Perhaps a bit slower than the op?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Northern stream digs more (as has been a common "correction vector" this winter) and has a more complete phase with the southern stream energy. Thus we close off at H7 over SE MA, just in time to wallop eastern New England.

That's what ***can*** happen

Ok. The witching hour has been 42h which starts to come into focus at 18z today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

So far the 12z runs are very disappointing.

It looks fine, as long as you never expected Jan 2005.

[Damage In Tolland]

AWT

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM looks a bit more amplified than the NCEP models...produces about a half inch of QPF for E MA and a general 0.25-0.50 for the rest with lowest amounts the further W you go.

[OKpowdah]

It looks fine, as long as you never expected Jan 2005.

I never *expected* anything

12z runs definitely do not look "fine" though

[Baroclinic Zone]

AWT

A Weenie Thought?

GGEM not looking too bad either.

[MJHUB]

It looks fine, as long as you never expected Jan 2005.

Agreed, just think back a year ago when we got no snow at all, take what is given and move along we can't get blizzards every week.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I never *expected* anything

12z runs definitely do not look "fine" though

We agree to disagree. It's going to snow and I really don't care how much, the more the merrier of course.

[OKpowdah]

Ok. The witching hour has been 42h which starts to come into focus at 18z today.

Yeah, coming down to the wire on this one unfortunately. As I said, I want to see some positive trends on the rest of the 12z globals and hopefully a substantial SHIFT on the 18z NAM and GFS

[NorEastermass128]

We agree to disagree. It's going to snow and I really don't care how much, the more the merrier of course.

I'm with you...maybe an inch or two refresher tonight. 3-6"+ FRI...that's fine with me!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

We agree to disagree. It's going to snow and I really don't care how much, the more the merrier of course.

Rgem ggem ukmet are all fine for us. The nam will sort it out in the next six to 12 hours.

Euro will hopefully drop around .5 in eastern areas to put minds at ease

[40/70 Benchmark]

I never *expected* anything

12z runs definitely do not look "fine" though

I think they look fine....high end Adv, low-end warning is all I ever expected from this.

Like I told you when you were ready to annoint this a KU, the only modelsl that ever depicted this as anything greater than a mod impacter were the GEM and long range NAM, which doesn't instill much confidence to say the least.

Compound that with the fact that historic impacts clustered together this tightly are just not the rule, I had the front end loaders on the back burner.

Still a nice refresher, here....good luck.

[sankaty]

Between high ratios, a bit more northern stream digging, and the tendency for models to underestimate QPF in the NW quadrant this winter, still feeling optimistic for a general 4-6 inch snowfall over most of SNE. Still hopeful that it trends stronger. Will be discouraged if it trends weaker on the 0z runs, though.

[Zeus]

We agree to disagree. It's going to snow and I really don't care how much, the more the merrier of course.

Per Jeff via Facebook this morning, Boston has already hit its seasonal number... so I cannot help but agree with your post.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Per Jeff via Facebook this morning, Boston has already hit its seasonal number... so I cannot help but agree with your post.

This season has a one-way ticket to history, but it need not get there in one week.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Rgem ggem ukmet are all fine for us. The nam will sort it out in the next six to 12 hours.

Euro will hopefully drop around .5 in eastern areas to put minds at ease

Anything approaching .5" on the models will be a 7-10" storm. My expectations are 1/2 that right now.

[OKpowdah]

We agree to disagree. It's going to snow and I really don't care how much, the more the merrier of course.

I think I made this exact post about another recent storm:

I have no "expectations" and my "threshold of satisfaction" is low for this storm. That does not mean I'm going to jump up and down with balloons and a parade over model runs that have trended worse. Who would actually look at the 12z runs and say "YES!! WOOOHOOO! I get substantially less snow than the 06z runs, but I still get something! LIFE IS GOOD! Calling all members of the Circle Jerk of Trust for a special 'meeting' to celebrate the mediocre 12z models!"