weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That or a better +PNA ridge out west. Maybe we can get the better +PNA ridge look out west over the next day or so, looks like the PNA is supposed to continue to slowly climb over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just got a text from Lundberg..he likes around a foot for my area..so extrapolate for the rest of SNE Another 15 then, I'll lock that up. He's been a nonstop believer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just got a text from Lundberg..he likes around a foot for my area..so extrapolate for the rest of SNE Certainly possible, we won't need much QPF to generate those totals this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe we can get the better +PNA ridge look out west over the next day or so, looks like the PNA is supposed to continue to slowly climb over the next few days. it has good teleconnector support...NAO is falling...we just have to see if it can deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 LOL..was it you? He's driven one of our best and most knowledgable posters away which is very sad Twitchy bunch for sure. like to take shots but don't like the zingers back. I think the comings and goings of a lot of posters seem to gel well with how well a train of thought is working out, it's human nature. The nam spinup moves onshore of the baja around 24 hours and then moves ne across Texas and is offshore or nc as the trough starts to go wild. But the 12-16 unit feature that spins up into what we think may be feedback induced does start off Mexico....it doesn't come out of thin air although it may well be an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No one here would think that coming from you. Good analysis all. At least an advisory event on the way with no threat of mixing and fluff potential - be happy. I will take a 4-8 of fresh powder anyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For some areas this does not reflect what we would think are the proper percentages because it goes by the 12z, dividing the event, but if you put it together we all look decent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it has good teleconnector support...NAO is falling...we just have to see if it can deliver. It's always a positive thing when you have the teleconnector support, if we didn't have that here than I'd probably be real worried but that's not this case, fortunately. Like others have mentioned as well, we've seen the models start to handle the northern stream much better once were inside the 48-HR mark and by the 18z runs today and definitely the 0z runs tonight the models should hopefully have a much better handle on it. It really doesn't need to be too much stronger or dig much more to produce a major hit for the entire area. One difference here as well is the fact that this doesn't appear as if it will close off at H5, or at least not in time to be a benefit to us. With the past few systems we have seen the storm close off so when you add that to the extreme negative tilts it's been a huge boost in bringing the storm further to the west. This one may have a pretty tight gradient where parts of eastern CT could end up with 6-10'' while western parts of the state get very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Guys keep it on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That I understand but I thought the other cape poster was off skiing as well. I guess I'm confused. Save the drama fo yo mama (or private messages). I don't care for this gossip one bit. GFS 12z in 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Need some serious NW action to get all of SNE back into the good snow, as it stands this reminds me of the early december storm that as the mets put it "wide right" it looked good and at the critial moment skooted off to the right. on the RI/MA border most likely I will see some snow but for CT/Western MA going to need a 50+ miles west swing and the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Guys keep it on topic. Can I quote you on this in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Eh, modeling sucks these days anyway. The only thing that is certain in that is the polar and intermediate stream interaction, and the immense complexity of determining what will happen because of it. The 06z actually came midway back to the 12z run yesterday: (18z + 12z)/2 = 06z …Now the 12z backs out, granted… Whereas, the Euro did slightly trend W on the 00z run compared to the flat appeal of the 12z yesterday, while the GGEM (Canadian) held serve with a 6-12er. Hell, even the “GONAPS” model had a light to moderate event on Friday. I think those subtle but all important variance in depictions, combined with mentioned complexity is enough to keep a vigil at least. Whatever happens, it would have to be of the NJ Model low variety most likely, due to the heights being somewhat elevated …with higher mid level geostrophic wind velocities across the TV/deep SE. Those factors indicate less compressibility to the flow, and troughs not being able to dig deeply. Besides, it is hard to get a big event right on the heels of a big event for a reason. Although, technically the last event was of moderate caliber; so too should Friday’s system be. Next week is interesting, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Rgem 998 just southeast of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Can I quote you on this in the future? Use the report function if you have any problems in the future...I see very few reports ever from the threads here. If you have any other problems PM me...we have a banter/obs thread, this is a storm threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just got a text from Lundberg..he likes around a foot for my area..so extrapolate for the rest of SNE More as you move East from your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Use the report function if you have any problems in the future...I see very few reports ever from the threads here. If you have any other problems PM me...we have a banter/obs thread, this is a storm threat thread. IMO if the same strictness that's enforced in other regions is enforced here a lot of the hurt feelings etc would end. Eventually enough sh77 sticks to the wall and people lose it. Thanks will for cleaning up this thread. ---- The rgem doesn't appear to have the same spinup as the nam. Not really a surprise is it? The rest of the suite should be fine. As a disclaimer the bw charts make it tough to be sure but there seems to be no sign of the offshore feature on the nam. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 More as you move East from your location? I believe he thinks a general 8-14 inch snowstorm for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I believe he thinks a general 8-14 inch snowstorm for all of SNE Do you know if that is based off a much closer track or a somewhat closer track with fantastic ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS is digging more at 24 HR than the 6z GFS was at 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Do you know if that is based off a much closer track or a somewhat closer track with fantastic ratios? He thinks it comes farther NW..his column today should lay it out nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS is digging more at 24 HR than the 6z GFS was at 30! No it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No sign at all of the phantom sw off the baja at 24 rs that the nam had on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No it isn't. I meant to say it's held back more with the southern stream, it's also more held back than the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I meant to say it's held back more with the southern stream, it's also more held back than the NAM is. Which is not a good thing. Less southern stream energy gets absorbed into the main shortwave and its going to be less impressive. The northern stream didn't dig as much as 06z either so its going to be a less impressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Which is not a good thing. Less southern stream energy gets absorbed into the main shortwave and its going to be less impressive. The northern stream didn't dig as much as 06z either so its going to be a less impressive solution. Yeah through 36 HR this does not look very impressive at all. Maybe things can improve over the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah through 36 HR this does not look very impressive at all. Maybe things can improve over the next few frames. Looks like 42 at 6 Z to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 slightly worse than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This isn't that bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So far the 12z runs are very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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