OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 09z SREF mean is digging less with the trough compared to the 03z SREF. Low goes a hair outside of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 SFREFs wayyyyy SE.. lock up 1-3" Watch the NAM be a major hit... One thing I learned in this pattern is to never give up on a storm.. I mean, the ukie waited until 6 hours out to nail the last major snow If we will see a trend NW it probably has to begin at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 09z SREFs are significantly SE of the 03z run...nobody (except maybe clipping outer Cape or ACK) sees 0.50"+. Still what looks like a high end advisory event, which is in line with model consensus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 09z SREF mean is digging less with the trough compared to the 03z SREF. Low goes a hair outside of the benchmark. Looking at the midlevels...it's still a decent position to get eastern mass with some banding I think. Obviously models are having trouble with the behavior of the nrn stream. I thought the overnight model trends were nice so we'll see how it goes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking at the midlevels...it's still a decent position to get eastern mass with some banding I think. Obviously models are having trouble with the behavior of the nrn stream. I thought the overnight model trends were nice so we'll see how it goes today. How did the Euro look last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How did the Euro look last night? The SREFs may not be far off from it. It had about 0.3" liquid equivalent for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sref's are garbage they've been terrible this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The SREFs may not be far off from it. It had about 0.3" liquid equivalent for you. that's alright i guess...similar low position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sref's are garbage they've been terrible this winter how did that big hit you were predicting from the Euro last night work out for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that's alright i guess...similar low position? Looks close to it. Still a lot of spread in the SREFs too, but I think a conservative approach of a mdt event looks good for now. We'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 how did that big hit you were predicting from the Euro last night work out for you? It did come NW as i said it would..this will end up a 6-12 storm almost guaranteed for everyone. There's always heavier banding farther NW than modelled. you should know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks close to it. Still a lot of spread in the SREFs too, but I think a conservative approach of a mdt event looks good for now. We'll see what 12z does. This could be the type of event anyway that gives someone 7" of cold fluff from 0.35" of qpf. We'll have to watch the vortmax track carefully...if it sneaks just S of us near LI, then we could see an enhanced area of omega that would probably ensure good snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It did come NW as i said it would..this will end up a 6-12 storm almost guaranteed for everyone. There's always heavier banding farther NW than modelled. you should know that Agreed, this is what I think we will end up with, except this time the jackpot might be a bit more NE that what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Inverted trough tonight on the 12Z NAM, might be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Srefs I like as much as the nam outside of 36rs. They'd been pretty good inside of 24-30. New nam is already popping a much better s/w sw of rapid city by 300-500 miles. Viva la bad 12 hour 500 modeling on this bad model and let the fun begin...going to be an interesting run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Srefs I like as much as the nam outside of 36rs. They'd been pretty good inside of 24-30. New nam is already popping a much better s/w sw of rapid city by 300-500 miles. Viva la bad 12 hour 500 modeling on this bad model and let the fun begin...going to be an interesting run If nothing else, one could look at the substantial jump of the most recent SREFs in comparison to the previous run as an indicator that they have yet to really have a strong handle on a solution. But I could be grasping at needle dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This could be the type of event anyway that gives someone 7" of cold fluff from 0.35" of qpf. We'll have to watch the vortmax track carefully...if it sneaks just S of us near LI, then we could see an enhanced area of omega that would probably ensure good snow growth. Yeah this event will bring out the qpf huggers that go rafters, not realizing that may have 15:1 or even 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah this event will bring out the qpf huggers that go rafters, not realizing that may have 15:1 or even 20:1. I'm not worried at all. I've realized for a few days that this was going to potentially be a cold storm with high ratios. As it stands now I'd go 3-6" imby more S & E and less N & W. 850's are running -4 to -6C it looks with 700mg temps at -10 to -12C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Trough on the NAM seems to be digging decently but the tilt isn't great yet at 39 to my untrained eyes. EDIT: probably still a mod hit, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah this event will bring out the qpf huggers that go rafters, not realizing that may have 15:1 or even 20:1. MPM just just jumped out the escape hatch on his way to Jamaica at 25k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Trough on the NAM seems to be digging decently but the tilt isn't great yet at 39 to my untrained eyes. EDIT: probably still a mod hit, we'll see It's not digging as deep as the 6z run was but at 42 HR the tilt is more neutral so maybe it will be negative by 45 or 48 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This run is going to be pretty shallow. Probably like 00z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks slightly better than the 00z run thru 42h and not as good as the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NAM shows less digging with the nrn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If nothing else, one could look at the substantial jump of the most recent SREFs in comparison to the previous run as an indicator that they have yet to really have a strong handle on a solution. But I could be grasping at needle dendrites. Agreed. In shocking news the nam handles the vortmax differently this run as it swings across ky. Weaker more positively aligned. That little s/w early in the run rockets around and helps to flatten the flow. The result is either much later or much less digging than the 6z. Very good continuity run to run which is beyond impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agreed. In shocking news the nam handles the vortmax differently this run as it swings across ky. Weaker more positively aligned. That little s/w early in the run rockets around and helps to flatten the flow. The result is either much later or much less digging than the 6z. Very good continuity run to run which is beyond impressive Needs to disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Could be a bit of an over-achiever due to slightly higher snow/liquid ratios... Andy!! Where ya been brother? Nice snow falling here at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 48 hrs on the NAM looks very far SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 54 its scraping the outer cape and islands. I think this is a middle of the road advisory event for most and possibly low end warning for se mass the cape and islands. 1-3 nw 2-4 majority 3-6 cape and islands couple inches of powder then cold settles in, should make for a nice weekend, looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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