ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 06z GFS ens mean looks a bit SE of the 00z mean. Near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Things look cold and snowy beyond the end of the week system as well. Very good. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. My snowbanks are looking good, how 'bout yours? Looking great...added 3 nches to them yesterday. Another 6-12 of powder on Friday just monsters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EURO is an advisory event for most, maybe low end warning for the cape; I think this is a mod event and see no reason to break continuity, at this point. Nod to the GFS. Thanks for sharing ray. Nam gives a foot plus euro an advisory. Would love to hear tips input on whether he thinks the new nam is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks for sharing ray. Nam gives a foot plus euro an advisory. Would love to hear tips input on whether he thinks the new nam is the way to go I'd probably split the difference and lean toward heavier. The bias all season has been to under estimate the northern stream...in almost every storm. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this come in a little more amplified in the next 24 hours. I don't think it will be a huge event by any means, but I could see a low end warning criteria for most of the region (like 5-8" or so)....snow ratios could be very high in this though, so we'll have to keep an eye out. Its a cold storm. If we get ideal dendritic growth, then we could see 20 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What I find very intersting is that all the surrounding offices..bgm/mtholly/upton/albany are pretty intrigued with the mid week threat for next week, the general consensus is that things happen too late for just about everyone right now but considering the event upcoming I find the amount of space given to discuss the possible event mid week next week very interesting. I wonder if one of these things is gonna eventually wind up Blizzard of 1899 esque...the arctic air is coming eventually and the gulf seems to be primed for activity and these storms even the ones that miss at least try to come up the coast. Seems like this is the season for it to happen if there ever was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What I find very intersting is that all the surrounding offices..bgm/mtholly/upton/albany are pretty intrigued with the mid week threat for next week, the general consensus is that things happen too late for just about everyone right now but considering the event upcoming I find the amount of space given to discuss the possible event mid week next week very interesting. I wonder if one of these things is gonna eventually wind up Blizzard of 1899 esque...the arctic air is coming eventually and the gulf seems to be primed for activity and these storms even the ones that miss at least try to come up the coast. Seems like this is the season for it to happen if there ever was one. That's it, positive thinking. CoT pledge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BTW anyone else think this system looks like 12/30/93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6-12 looks good for Friday..The phenomenal winter continues Hard to disagree. The limiting factor is duration so I'd tend to lean on the lower end. 12/31/08 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BTW anyone else think this system looks like 12/30/93? Did you mean 12./28? The 10 incher (BOS) which was a Thurs aft/night event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I see the NW trend has commenced for friday, And we get a quick hitter late today here 1-3".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did you mean 12./28? The 10 incher (BOS) which was a Thurs aft/night event? It was late 12/29 early 12/30 actually. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us1230.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hard to disagree. The limiting factor is duration so I'd tend to lean on the lower end. 12/31/08 redux. could be balanced by ratios....good chance I'll be in Brookline for this one if my cousin is home. Need to buy a computer and want to go to Apple store down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It was late 12/29 early 12/30 actually. http://www.meteo.psu...1993/us1230.php That was one of the top 5 positive busts for me. What a fluff bomb. I had nearly a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That was one of the top 5 positive busts for me. What a fluff bomb. I had nearly a foot. Yeah I mentioned a few posts back that we have potential for a fluff bust...very good ratios. Obviously we have to get the lift to line up in the SG region, but it looks to be a cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah I mentioned a few posts back that we have potential for a fluff bust...very good ratios. Obviously we have to get the lift to line up in the SG region, but it looks to be a cold storm. I just remember how great the snowgrowth was in that storm. Huge fat fluffy flakes. That storm kicked off an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hopefully we can rebuild beyond Friday too. I probably compacted a good 4" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It was late 12/29 early 12/30 actually. http://www.meteo.psu...1993/us1230.php That's one similar in that the models were iffy till the final day or 2. Great gateway to a fabulous winter. This winter is rocking along still in its first half. BOS has achieved its normal annual snow with plenty more in the pipeline. Sit back and enjoy this one. I left BOS in snow yesterday...kind of scary going down the runway with low visibility but we made it. I return to frozen snowcover Thurs night and probable significant snow Friday. Get on my back....I'll take you to the promised land! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z GFS a little more SE with its precip shield and less robust. When do we get the dramatic NW trend??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When do we get the dramatic NW trend??????? Starting at 12z today....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ALY already throwing out some prelim #'s for Thurs/FRI. The NW trend and stronger should, in the end, make this another decent snowfall for most in SNE. WE WATCH WITH INTEREST A POTENT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH POTENTIAL PHASING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS PHASING TO OCCUR BUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE THE HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLES/PLUME DIAGRAMS OFFER A WIDE DEGREE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR ALBANY...GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST AROUND 1/3 OF AN INCH OF QPF WITH A FEW MEMBERS UP TO 1 INCH. THE SREFS ARE HIGHER WITH AN AVERAGE NEAR 1/2 OF AN INCH OF QPF. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC...SEEMS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES COULD BE MORE IMPACTED THAN THOSE LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. SO WE WILL STAGGER THOSE POPS WITH LOWER VALUES NORTH OF I90 TOWARD HIGH END LIKELY POPS FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHLY PRELIMINARY ACCUMULATIONS POINTS TOWARD HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 IN NY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKS WITH VALUES OF 4-7 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH...2-5 INCHES WHICH WILL BE BORDERLINE HEADLINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is WSW of the operational at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 BTW anyone else think this system looks like 12/30/93? Eerily similar looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z NAM went crazy with tonight's event. We need to watch tonight, GYX even mentions a possible norlun event coming through. The GFS, NAM, and WRF are pretty amped on this evening. I bet we get at least 2-4, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Eerily similar looking. Don't know that event--was that another Caper Scraper or did it share the wealth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There are signs it may be bigger than that too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Don't know that event--was that another Caper Scraper or did it share the wealth? It gave most everyone a general 3-6" outside of E MA and RI where they had 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 could be balanced by ratios....good chance I'll be in Brookline for this one if my cousin is home. Need to buy a computer and want to go to Apple store down there. You do know that there is an Apple store at the Rockingham Mall in Salem, NH, right? Why go to MA and pay the sales tax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Could be a bit of an over-achiever due to slightly higher snow/liquid ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 haha, exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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