Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ahh You can't go wrong with Tapas.... I had it for the first time in Barcelona in '03 and then it started to get quite popular here.... Thanks Rick. I think I ate here a few years ago! This meeting is in St Pete so we're over on this side. Stuffed tonight with too much tapas if that's possible. Gotta sleep soon.....long dayy with little sleep last night. Truthfully I'm looking forward to my flight home Thurs night just ahead of the SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well, if the model can't get those details down within 12-24 hours, it should be scrapped. It isn't that difficult for the model to be able to see WAA in a swfe. I see you mean but think about it...to peg correctly exactly when the brunt of it is going to work in and exactly when this WAA will be enough to changeover precip can be a difficult thing to foresee. There are just so many factors at play, how close the lows are tracking to you, the strength of the southerly winds aloft, the level of cold out ahead of the southerly flow and how deep it is...remember cold air is much more dense so it's not going to move out very easily, whether or not there is anything in place that will keep a more northerly flow locked in which would mean the cold air lasting longer...just the slightest change in any of the above mentioned can totally change the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I see you mean but think about it...to peg correctly exactly when the brunt of it is going to work in and exactly when this WAA will be enough to changeover precip can be a difficult thing to foresee. There are just so many factors at play, how close the lows are tracking to you, the strength of the southerly winds aloft, the level of cold out ahead of the southerly flow and how deep it is...remember cold air is much more dense so it's not going to move out very easily, whether or not there is anything in place that will keep a more northerly flow locked in which would mean the cold air lasting longer...just the slightest change in any of the above mentioned can totally change the outcome. I understand that, but the globals didn't flop as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, 00Z NOGAPS has a benchmark track further west than 18z, but a less expansive QPF shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I understand that, but the globals didn't flop as much. Ohhh...ok I'm with you now. Yeah the globals on this did not do as much flipping on the NAM on this one, totally agree. NAM flipped but in the end in did well...but then (and to your point) it only did b/c it was inside 12-24 hours Anyways I'm off to bed, will just check the euro in the AM...too buzzed to stay up longer and back is killing me. Much needed rest and prepare for some sort of action Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Said it before and I'll say it again...this is 2004-05 shifted about 50-70 miles to the nw and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I remember that May of 2005 was nasty.... couldn't get Spring in here. One day I was here on the undeveloped property putting in fence posts in 45F wind swept rain in Mid May.... So lets hope the comparisons end around April 10th or so..... Said it before and I'll say it again...this is 2004-05 shifted about 50-70 miles to the nw and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hmm...Harvey going for 1-3" in NE MASS for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Point forecast for ski areas is -20 to -35 Saturday night! I'm heading up to killington this weekend ....nothing a little can't solve. I'm thinking progressive quick heavy hitting fluff ball 6-10" for most of the region with 14" in the best banded areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS ensembles are a bit slower for Friday. Look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hmm...Harvey going for 1-3" in NE MASS for tomorrow night. He also said temps down into the 20's tonight, if that happens Im taking my skates out of storage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 He also said temps down into the 20's tonight, if that happens Im taking my skates out of storage. I disagree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS ensembles are a bit slower for Friday. Look nice. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's early, but I think the EURO will be a little less amped than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not big differences, but through hr 42 the GFS looks a hair more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yea, EURO is about 4mb weaker and over the BM, as opposed to the GFS being just s of ACK. I favor the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EURO is an advisory event for most, maybe low end warning for the cape; I think this is a mod event and see no reason to break continuity, at this point. Nod to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No one awake to celebrate the 6Z ETA???? Seems like 0Z was an errant blip, storm uncancel...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No one awake to celebrate the 6Z ETA???? Seems like 0Z was an errant blip, storm uncancel...! Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS ensembles are a bit slower for Friday. Look nice. Yeah--there were a couple members that brought a smile to my face. Alas, I'll see it all Friday night. Good luck with the tracking, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z NAM went crazy with tonight's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And for the Friday storm it went back to a crushing hit for SE areas. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z GFS a little more SE with its precip shield and less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z NAM went crazy with tonight's event. ETA and GFS are nice too. The NAM is an advisory up here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ETA and GFS are nice too. The NAM is an advisory up here. lol I went 1-3 inches... Though the NAM is obviously at the upper end of that, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6-12 looks good for Friday..The phenomenal winter continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ETA and GFS are nice too. The NAM is an advisory up here. lol SREFs like the possibility. There was no areas with 4+ probabilities so I cropped it. Edit: This is for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ALY already throwing out some prelim #'s for Thurs/FRI. The NW trend and stronger should, in the end, make this another decent snowfall for most in SNE. WE WATCH WITH INTEREST A POTENT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH POTENTIAL PHASING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS PHASING TO OCCUR BUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE THE HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLES/PLUME DIAGRAMS OFFER A WIDE DEGREE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR ALBANY...GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST AROUND 1/3 OF AN INCH OF QPF WITH A FEW MEMBERS UP TO 1 INCH. THE SREFS ARE HIGHER WITH AN AVERAGE NEAR 1/2 OF AN INCH OF QPF. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC...SEEMS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES COULD BE MORE IMPACTED THAN THOSE LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. SO WE WILL STAGGER THOSE POPS WITH LOWER VALUES NORTH OF I90 TOWARD HIGH END LIKELY POPS FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHLY PRELIMINARY ACCUMULATIONS POINTS TOWARD HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 IN NY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKS WITH VALUES OF 4-7 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH...2-5 INCHES WHICH WILL BE BORDERLINE HEADLINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6-12 looks good for Friday..The phenomenal winter continues Things look cold and snowy beyond the end of the week system as well. Very good. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. My snowbanks are looking good, how 'bout yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.