40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ride the gfs euro. Nam fail. At even 36 you can see significant differences at 5h and we already know it'll be the nam that's wrong at 5h not the gfs. Should be a good suite tonight, aside of the nam crapping itself. Messenger, how do you feel about the NAM....just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM hasn't had a consistent run in a few years.... I thought the NAM has done well with the system this winter, obviously overdone QPF wise to an extent but for the most part I think it has done a solid job of picking up and depicting well some key features...maybe verification maps will prove me wrong here but I've been pretty impressed. For one, it (along with other models) did an excellent job with this system we just saw and the WAA and the timing of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i dont buy this run at all i expect it to be a much more robust storm 12-18 lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 High-end SECS....8-12" Looks like Bob's area would jackpot. I get about 9". Great run. Splitting hairs, but looks more like 4-8" / 5-10". Progressive will be the key word. 8 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Should be a nice fluff event if the GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Splitting hairs, but looks more like 4-8" / 5-10". Progressive will be the key word. 8 hour storm. 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I thought the NAM has done well with the system this winter, obviously overdone QPF wise to an extent but for the most part I think it has done a solid job of picking up and depicting well some key features...maybe verification maps will prove me wrong here but I've been pretty impressed. For one, it (along with other models) did an excellent job with this system we just saw and the WAA and the timing of it. I disagree....it blew; it oscillated from giving me just about all snow to hardly anything, inside of 48 hrs. This is why it pays to have an extensive knowledge of climo because I stuck with 2-5" throughout all of that crap. The NAM always pulls that sh** with swfes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 66hr precip excluded, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Ukie says the lows moves about 80mph...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 66hr precip excluded, correct? Correct. But I'm just using my imagination of the sfc low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Crazy Uncle on boar! Remember we're missing qpf in the other 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Splitting hairs, but looks more like 4-8" / 5-10". Progressive will be the key word. 8 hour storm. There will be OES contributions in this; I don't care what the model depicts. Someone in se MA would see 1' on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah abysmal on qpf... like 1.1" here on last nights run and we get .4" I thought the NAM has done well with the system this winter, obviously overdone QPF wise to an extent but for the most part I think it has done a solid job of picking up and depicting well some key features...maybe verification maps will prove me wrong here but I've been pretty impressed. For one, it (along with other models) did an excellent job with this system we just saw and the WAA and the timing of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Ukie says the lows moves about 80mph...lol. looks similar to the gfs to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks similar to the gfs to me It just seems so fast, but I suppose it's possible with such a progressive s/w. It's a shame it can't get its feet wet for another 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I disagree....it blew; it oscillited from giving me just about all snow to hardly anything, inside of 48 hrs. This is why it pays to have an extensive knowledge of climo because I stuck with 2-5" throughout all of that crap. The NAM always pulls that sh** with swfes. Well by no means was it perfect in just about every location or with every aspect of the storm but the NAM was showing WAA occurring, at least down here in CT by early morning, as early as 12z and that's pretty much what happened, I know for this area it really had the majority of the precip change happening after 10-11 AM and that's what happened, I know I had mixed precip before then but there were periods where it was mainly snow but after 10-11 AM I saw zero snow and the NAM hit that well. For such a complex system I think the models performed very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Holy freeze your balls off after the storm on GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Correct. But I'm just using my imagination of the sfc low track. yeah, that would probably go over ACK...my guess is all of SNE would be hit hard at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bob like the GFS/Ukie. See ya in the mornin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jerry if you have time a very cool place to eat in TPA is the original Columbia in Ybor City...... fantastic place ..cuban/spanish cuisine, restaurant is a historic site. Crazy Uncle on boar! Remember we're missing qpf in the other 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm pretty confident that we are locking onto a solution and would be suprised if the EURO did not follow suite, or at least trend in this direction. This has se MA and immediate N shore jackpot written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah abysmal on qpf... like 1.1" here on last nights run and we get .4" Exactly why it's always usually pretty safe to expect the lower amounts of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Ukie says the lows moves about 80mph...lol. Gfs was hauling balls too. Really good to see the globals come around. But arent these the two models everyone craps on? So aren't we all going to ride the nam pogo stick tonight? Maybe it's higher resolution is allowing it to pick something out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah the southrn stream moisture that models had depicted a few days ago went poof. Remember when the GFS was keeping the streams apart, but taking a wet system off the SE coast. I thought if things phased we'd have some kinda hybrid miller A/B and be starting with some moisture. But this is essentially a clipper/Miller B. It just seems so fast, but I suppose it's possible with such a progressive s/w. It's a shame it can't get its feet wet for another 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Holy freeze your balls off after the storm on GFS! Point forecast for ski areas is -20 to -35 Saturday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jerry if you have time a very cool place to eat in TPA is the original Columbia in Ybor City...... fantastic place ..cuban/spanish cuisine, restaurant is a historic site. Thanks Rick. I think I ate here a few years ago! This meeting is in St Pete so we're over on this side. Stuffed tonight with too much tapas if that's possible. Gotta sleep soon.....long dayy with little sleep last night. Truthfully I'm looking forward to my flight home Thurs night just ahead of the SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well by no means was it perfect in just about every location or with every aspect of the storm but the NAM was showing WAA occurring, at least down here in CT by early morning, as early as 12z and that's pretty much what happened, I know for this area it really had the majority of the precip change happening after 10-11 AM and that's what happened, I know I had mixed precip before then but there were periods where it was mainly snow but after 10-11 AM I saw zero snow and the NAM hit that well. For such a complex system I think the models performed very well. Well, if the model can't get those details down within 12-24 hours, it should be scrapped. It isn't that difficult for the model to be able to see WAA in a swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Gfs was hauling balls too. Really good to see the globals come around. But arent these the two models everyone craps on? So aren't we all going to ride the nam pogo stick tonight? Maybe it's higher resolution is allowing it to pick something out? Brian is right...both models haul and so does the euro. I'm tired and hallucinating, so I didn't notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 But the higher resolution RGEM is on the stronger system side also.... Gfs was hauling balls too. Really good to see the globals come around. But arent these the two models everyone craps on? So aren't we all going to ride the nam pogo stick tonight? Maybe it's higher resolution is allowing it to pick something out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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