weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GFS or the EURO haven't shown a big hit for quite some time. The 18z GFS ens were ok. All very true. But the idea the nam was consistent....bs. All it's been consistent in doing is moving south or southeast of the 0z solution last night. Every single run has nudged further to sea. It may change in the end but humpty dumpty fell off the wall Now what we have is movement towards the euro consensus. I see what some are saying but my point is forget everything the models are showing right now...with the exception of the trough and the tilt...this is going to be yet another pretty strongly negatively tilted system. When you're dealing with that you're always, always, going to end up seeing a more westward solution than what the models spit out, we've seen it with all the other storms this season. I don't really care about sfc stuff really until were inside of 48 hr's...I should say I don't put much stock in it, unless it matches up well with upper level progs. It also seems there is just some issues with timing of the s/w's and when phasing takes place...when I see something like that I halt to caution...when dealing with timing of these features it's a mess until inside of 36 hr's. As long as we continue to see a major negative tilt I'm going to think more west than east with this one. Will I be wrong here? Sure, not saying I'm 100% correct but IMO I think all of us, with maybe the exception of the Cape will see at least a low end warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Left with only more questions before bed..I hope the NAM comes back by morning.. You actually have less questions, but you just haven't received that answers that you would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Two things caused me to never really latch onto Friday: 1) The GFS and EURO were never big on it; they were mod a few days ago and have trended to sh**. Only the long range NAM and GEM ever made this big.....NAM gone to sh**, GEM pending. 2) I would be close to a 3' snowpack if this went big and that just doesn't happen, other than in Feb 1969, so climo tells me that we wait until my snowpack takes a beating before we get hit hard, again. After tomorrows lock in hard freeze your snowpack will not be beaten for a while and this pattern is juiced. Me thinks you are 69 ing not only with KeV but your snowpack too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well first out of the shoot tonight sh*t the bed. GFS was more robust at 18Z so it it goes the NAM's way, this flag must be lowered some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I see what some are saying but my point is forget everything the models are showing right now...with the exception of the trough and the tilt...this is going to be yet another pretty strongly negatively tilted system. When you're dealing with that you're always, always, going to end up seeing a more westward solution than what the models spit out, we've seen it with all the other storms this season. I don't really care about sfc stuff really until were inside of 48 hr's...I should say I don't put much stock in it, unless it matches up well with upper level progs. It also seems there is just some issues with timing of the s/w's and when phasing takes place...when I see something like that I halt to caution...when dealing with timing of these features it's a mess until inside of 36 hr's. As long as we continue to see a major negative tilt I'm going to think more west than east with this one. Will I be wrong here? Sure, not saying I'm 100% correct but IMO I think all of us, with maybe the exception of the Cape will see at least a low end warning criteria event. Right, which is why I left the door wide open for a mod event; I can see this reverting back to the 4-8"\5-10 event that the GFS and EURO had originally advertised....not sure that I'd bet against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I see what some are saying but my point is forget everything the models are showing right now...with the exception of the trough and the tilt...this is going to be yet another pretty strongly negatively tilted system. When you're dealing with that you're always, always, going to end up seeing a more westward solution than what the models spit out, we've seen it with all the other storms this season. I don't really care about sfc stuff really until were inside of 48 hr's...I should say I don't put much stock in it, unless it matches up well with upper level progs. It also seems there is just some issues with timing of the s/w's and when phasing takes place...when I see something like that I halt to caution...when dealing with timing of these features it's a mess until inside of 36 hr's. As long as we continue to see a major negative tilt I'm going to think more west than east with this one. Will I be wrong here? Sure, not saying I'm 100% correct but IMO I think all of us, with maybe the exception of the Cape will see at least a low end warning criteria event. Not seeing that Neg tilt Paul, looks neutral until it passes our Lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 After tomorrows lock in hard freeze your snowpack will not be beaten for a while and this pattern is juiced. Me thinks you are 69 ing not only with KeV but your snowpack too. We'll see. I'll lose more snow before tmw night, too.....temp is only creeing up, tonight.....as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I dunno....the SREFs seem still quite bullish on a moderate event. The 18Z NAM to 0Z is astounding. How can the same model make such swings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We'll see. I'll lose more snow before tmw night, too.....temp is only creeing up, tonight.....as We thought. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Right, which is why I left the door wide open for a mod event; I can see this reverting back to the 4-8"\5-10 event that the GFS and EURO had originally advertised....not sure that I'd bet against that. We might be thinking the same actually...I'm thinking mod event...although maybe you're thinking less than that with the potential for the mod event to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 fixed No, many were calling for it drop a few...I even heard Harv was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We'll see. I'll lose more snow before tmw night, too.....temp is only creeing up, tonight.....as I thought. Actually looks like you should see at least an inch tomorrow night pre lock up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We might be thinking the same actually...I'm thinking mod event...although maybe you're thinking less than that with the potential for the mod event to occur? I'd say 3-8", right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No, many were calling for it drop a few...I even heard Harv was. Uh not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Actually looks like you should see at least an inch tomorrow night pre lock up. It will look that way, until I walk out and see it melting on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Uh not me Some did....all I meant. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not seeing that Neg tilt Paul, looks neutral until it passes our Lat Yeah it's not a classic negative tilt until it passes our latitude but it does appear to be at least slightly negatively tilted to our west...nothing like the extreme tilts we've been seeing...but also I think the baroclinic zone is going to be closer to the coast as well..and timing seems a bit fast and with the fast flow aloft that can be expected. I do think us here in CT has a solid chance of seeing a good 6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Some did....all I meant. Cool. Mixed out conformity cept for the ema torched areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bet it comes back northwest starting with tomorrow's 12Z runs and ends up being a good SECS hit for SNE...at least eastern parts. But out here I am pretty close to writing it off...few inches yeah, but not much more than that. You see the writing on the wall with just about every low this year. Hey you think the blocking is gone, etc etc and one of them should hug the coast, but they never do. It's the seasonal pattern. I'd say 3-8", right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It will look that way, until I walk out and see it melting on contact. What's your temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'd say 3-8", right now. If I had the gun to my head right now I would go along those lines...maybe even a 5-9'' type thing but I think we generally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I dunno....the SREFs seem still quite bullish on a moderate event. The 18Z NAM to 0Z is astounding. How can the same model make such swings? It does this all the time this winter. With the last system the approach vector was such that it's run to run changes just resulted in a north/east extension of precip. As this one is still neutral on approach it's normal mergin of errors results in a miss this run. You asked why it does this...because it's sucked at 5h many times this winter....sometimes it gets it right despite itself. If the gfs/euro move west a tick that's good news. The nam swinging hog out only seems to happen when the ultimate solution is a se ne hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's your temp? My station is 31.9, but I think it's running a tad cool, tonight....I'll go with the 33.3 up the street in E Billerica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Seems ike the NAM has been taking a step weaker and more offfshore each run since it's utopian run for us in Upstate NY last night. LOL So maybe it's wrong, but it has been steadily losing it. Funny thing this time is at 48 and 54 hours I thought the position of the southern vort was better for a good phase, but still manages to yield a very flat result. It does this all the time this winter. With the last system the approach vector was such that it's run to run changes just resulted in a north/east extension of precip. As this one is still neutral on approach it's normal mergin of errors results in a miss this run. You asked why it does this...because it's sucked at 5h many times this winter....sometimes it gets it right despite itself. If the gfs/euro move west a tick that's good news. The nam swinging hog out only seems to happen when the ultimate solution is a se ne hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If I had the gun to my head right now You live in Hartford give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My station is 31.9, but I think it's running a tad cool, tonight....I'll go with the 33.3 up the street at E Billerica. I thought those temps in NH would ooze down towards you..but they torched even worse than I thought over the last few hours. In essence, it's like the same airmass over everyone..lol. Still wouldn't be shocked if you dropped to 31 or something like that, during late night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I thought those temps in NH would ooze down towards you..but they torched even worse than I thought over the last few hours. In essence, it's like the same airmass over everyone..lol. Still wouldn't be shocked if you dropped to 31 or something like that, during late night. Exactly what I thought would happen.....same thing took place the night of Dec 16, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 At least the rain is over.....are we stuck with high dews all day tmw, Scott... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Exactly what I thought would happen.....same thing took place the night of Dec 16, 2007. I don't think snh warmed up like that. This low really kicked the crap out of all this low level cold. I was doubting the NAM showing temps near and above freezing in parts of nrn orh county and it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Really a useless event and major waste of time here, but at least we never thawed. 2" cumulative of snow/sleet, but very minimal FZRA. 29 now ...high for the day. The place that cleaned up was GFL... 6, 7, 8 inch amounts in that area... Even had it been all snow here I don't think we would have had more than 4". I thought those temps in NH would ooze down towards you..but they torched even worse than I thought over the last few hours. In essence, it's like the same airmass over everyone..lol. Still wouldn't be shocked if you dropped to 31 or something like that, during late night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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