dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ok, what if the upper end of the upper range is "+"? I was getting a really big number until that part. , I think he is jerking your chain........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i'd go 3-6 8 lollies preliminary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 She's gonna have to turn the corner fast or it's just a scraper. Not going to happen it seems on this run............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wait, but I thought the NAM was the best model in the world? What a joke. Look at that amazing continuity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Southern stream shoots ahead of the northern stream and the phase is not there like 18z. Scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sleeps with the fishes on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Definitely not as amplified this run. SREFs looked nice but I'd like to see the globals come in with a bigger solution before getting too excited about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It is abundantly clear that the SREFs have this system figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I get more from the scraps tomorrow afternoon than Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I get more from the scraps tomorrow afternoon than Friday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Eh ... one stinker of a NAM run. It could just as easily show a direct hit at 6z. Putting it on the back burner for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What some snow on the ground will do for folks, If this was mid decmber and this run showed a whiff there would be chairs tipping......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wait, but I thought the NAM was the best model in the world? What a joke. Look at that amazing continuity! Lol, yeah funny isn't it? NAM continuity Phail. In reality at 500 and even at the surface it wasn't very consistent at all as it hunted for a solution. The 18z was closer to the gfs just slower at 5h, This run found a new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I still like the 0z NAM...just seems a bit faster and further east with everything...still showing the negative tilt early enough...I'm still confident of a solid hit for the region. Not going to live and die on every single run...I like what I see. Just b/c a run doesn't show a big hit doesn't mean that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Southern stream shoots ahead of the northern stream and the phase is not there like 18z. Scraper. Looking at WV, sat and radar that seems very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Doesn't quite complete the phase this run. On the other hand, "digginess" continues to trend toward improvement. We'll see what the globals say. Nice to have the SREFs in our corner, but they hold little weight without the NAM, and vice versa. Though really the NAM is only like 100 miles away from this phasing over Indiana and exploding on the east coast. Again though, lack luster results from the GFS and Euro will be like needles to the NAM/SREF balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I will play the role of MPMike - off to read/bed. Hoping for 15 new pages devoted to this event 15=good 10=meh 5 or less= towel thrown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Doesn't quite complete the phase this run. On the other hand, "digginess" continues to trend toward improvement. We'll see what the globals say. Nice to have the SREFs in our corner, but they hold little weight without the NAM, and vice versa. Though really the NAM is only like 100 miles away from this phasing over Indiana and exploding on the east coast. Again though, lack luster results from the GFS and Euro will be like needles to the NAM/SREF balloons. The only thing that is digging is this potential's grave. I still feel a mod event is possible, even that may be losing steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I still like the 0z NAM...just seems a bit faster and further east with everything...still showing the negative tilt early enough...I'm still confident of a solid hit for the region. Not going to live and die on every single run...I like what I see. Just b/c a run doesn't show a big hit doesn't mean that's going to happen. The GFS or the EURO haven't shown a big hit for quite some time. The 18z GFS ens were ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I still like the 0z NAM...just seems a bit faster and further east with everything...still showing the negative tilt early enough...I'm still confident of a solid hit for the region. Not going to live and die on every single run...I like what I see. Just b/c a run doesn't show a big hit doesn't mean that's going to happen. All very true. But the idea the nam was consistent....bs. All it's been consistent in doing is moving south or southeast of the 0z solution last night. Every single run has nudged further to sea. It may change in the end but humpty dumpty fell off the wall Now what we have is movement towards the euro consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 All very true. But the idea the nam was consistent....bs. All it's been consistent in doing is moving south or southeast of the 0z solution last night. Every single run has nudged further to sea. It may change in the end but humpty dumpty fell off the wall Now what we have is movement towards the euro consensus. Right....mod potential, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The only thing that is digging is this potential's grave. I still feel a mod event is possible, even that may be losing steam. Yea right now 2-4 would be a good starting point, see what happens by Thursday AM then pull the trigger or just pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yea right now 2-4 would be a good starting point, see what happens by Thursday AM then pull the trigger or just pedestrian. Yea, obviously I want more, but I'll take 2-4".....I'm not complaining, but rather calling it as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Right....mod potential, here. Never saw the Op Euro QPF for Fri, 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Never saw the Op Euro QPF for Fri, 2-4? Cape scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yea, obviously I want more, but I'll take 2-4".....I'm not complaining, but rather calling it as I see it. Absolutely, how could anyone complain this year, funny how it has evened out this year with Most between 35-45 , lots of stiff weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yea right now 2-4 would be a good starting point, see what happens by Thursday AM then pull the trigger or just pedestrian. 2-4 seems reasonable down here. The question is...is the inevitable undeniable, relentless nw trend going to bring it far enough back for a major hit once the se trend stops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Absolutely, how could anyone complain this year, funny how it has evened out this year with Most between 35-45 , lots of stiff weenies. Two things caused me to never really latch onto Friday: 1) The GFS and EURO were never big on it; they were mod a few days ago and have trended to sh**. Only the long range NAM and GEM ever made this big.....NAM gone to sh**, GEM pending. 2) I would be close to a 3' snowpack if this went big and that just doesn't happen, other than in Feb 1969, so climo tells me that we wait until my snowpack takes a beating before we get hit hard, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Left with only more questions before bed..I hope the NAM comes back by morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 2-4 seems reasonable down here. The question is...is the inevitable undeniable, relentless nw trend going to bring it far enough back for a major hit once the se trend stops? That my friend has been the trend in a trendy year. If it is tomorrow at noon will be the first indication. There is a ton of Big storm potential in this. Something to watch is the southern stream, if that slows even by six hours this bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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