winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I will go out on a limb and predict less spread in model solutions once we are 24 hours from storm commencement. It looks like the GFS and EURO are slowing down the storm. A couple days ago, it was a Tuesday evening event. Now, it is Wednesday evening (or out to sea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 06 GFS ENS 90hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z GFS ensemble mean definitely shifted eastward relative to 0z, but still is nowhere near the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From LWX... FOR TUE NGT WE HV CHC OF S WRN 3/4 OF THE CWA W/ LKLY R/S FM I-95 E...THEN CHC R/S E OF THE MTNS MJAORITY OF THE AREA DURG WED. GIVEN THE WIDE MDL DISPARITY THAT SEEMS LK A REASONABLE PLAN OF ATTACK...BUT CONFIDENCE RMNS *LOW* W/ THIS SYSTEM. MDLS HV HAD GRT DIFFICULTY W/ CSTL STORMS THIS SEASON...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS ONE MAY HV THE GREATEST MDL DIVERGENCE OF ALL..SO WE`LL ALL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS STORM DVLPS NAD MAKE ACCORDING CHGS TO THE FCST. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have some flurry action going on in Herndon right now. Hopefully it is a good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 06 GFS ENS 90hr What a tease those ensembles are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have some flurry action going on in Herndon right now. Hopefully it is a good omen. I can confirm flizzard in process! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 9z srefs are a little better, but how it gets there is interesting. The individuals show several vastly different scenarios, from a complete whiff, to a soaker in two parts, to a much delayed event. I know many don't put any faith in these, but I think it just emphasizes the high unpredictability of this. I gonna bet that the NAM shows us a completely different look than its 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 9z srefs are a little better, but how it gets there is interesting. The individuals show several vastly different scenarios, from a complete whiff, to a soaker in two parts, to a much delayed event. I know many don't put any faith in these, but I think it just emphasizes the high unpredictability of this. I gonna bet that the NAM shows us a completely different look than its 6z run. And we have a winner! This is why looking at the ensemble means can be useless and misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And we have a winner! This is why looking at the ensemble means can be useless and misleading. Maybe you're seeing something that I'm not. I guess looking at the operationals is showing the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And we have a winner! This is why looking at the ensemble means can be useless and misleading. You know they just might be getting it! Maybe you're seeing something that I'm not. I guess looking at the operationals is showing the way? Nevermind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Any thoughts on the 12Z NAM through 30? Looks like a bit of a change at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT has started pimping the Feb 2-3 storm BTW. Says blocking has returned per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 500, 12Z seems to be a bit slower compared to 00Z. Curious to see what it means down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT has started pimping the Feb 2-3 storm BTW. Says blocking has returned per Euro. I don't think pimping patterns is unreasonable but with the way things have gone wrong this year, at least for the MA, I can't see getting excited at all over threats 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 "SO WE`LL ALL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS STORM DVLPS NAD MAKE ACCORDING CHGS TO THE FCST. STAY TUNED." The NADS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT has my region in the 6-12 range on his 1st guess map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if things slow too much, the southern system will loose its connection and go out to sea it seems to me on the other hand, if the short wave in Canada that's interfering with delivering cold air doesn't have some time, it will be rain along I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oy! So I wake up this morning only to find yet more uncertainty especially after the 06Z GFS!! In a way, this is almost amusing and all you can do is shake your head. What's the old joke about some unstable Central American governments...something along the lines of, "if youd don't like the government, it'll change by tomorrow!" Seems to be the case here, if you don't like the look of one model run, wait until the next cycle for something completely different! It seems the only remotely consistent thing being shown is that this storm is occurring later, more like late Tuesday night into Wednesday night, or there about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if things slow too much, the southern system will loose its connection and go out to sea it seems to me on the other hand, if the short wave in Canada that's interfering with delivering cold air doesn't have some time, it will be rain along I95 Damned if we do, damned if we don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Damned if we do, damned if we don't? we just need to be damn lucky, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The fact that all models have slowed down timing concerns me some..I think it gives it more opportunity to go OTS...12z NAM looks like itll be east of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And we have a winner! This is why looking at the ensemble means can be useless and misleading. Yup...in a situation like this, very true, when there are a wide range of solutions or a couple of very different ideas that "average out". But in a situation where there's decent agreement, they can be more informative. If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are best used for the medium-longer range to get an idea of the overall longwave flow, and in that they excel much more (EDIT: I'm talking more the global ensembles here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks like a race on the NAM see that strip of high RH on this 700mb map? that seems to be the leading edge of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM is a miss with substantial precip it seems as its out to 84 on Raleigh's site, but looks like more would fall sim/rad maps will confirm one way or the other once out on ncep EDIT: and it sis rain east of the mts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM is a miss with substantial precip it seems as its out to 84 on Raleigh's site, but looks like more would fall sim/rad maps will confirm one way or the other once out on ncep EDIT: and it sis rain east of the mts Not a miss for DC with heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at78 low probably looks right on outer Banks...I dont know temps but precip is getting to southern PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not a miss for DC with heavy precip. well, I guess I meant miss as in snow yeah, there's rain I would add, though, that the rain would likely turn to a heavy wet snow as the 5H Low moved further north (after 84 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well, I guess I meant miss as in snow yeah, there's rain I would add, though, that the rain would likely turn to a heavy wet snow as the 5H Low moved further north (after 84 hrs) Yeah but once again rain/snow line is gonna be my concern as we get closer to the event. Let's just get the precip in here first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM is a miss with substantial precip it seems as its out to 84 on Raleigh's site, but looks like more would fall sim/rad maps will confirm one way or the other once out on ncep EDIT: and it sis rain east of the mts Actually looks like a classic hit. Surface temps may be an issues, 850's at 0 just south of DC. Actually one of the better NAM hits if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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