nj2va Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way better than 18Z. Anyone writing this off now needs to just STFU. Totally agreed - let's see when the models have this sampled come tomorrow. I'm sure it'll still be evolving after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 now I just need to wait for the slight adjustment north in the northern fringe of the precip we always see with the GFS and sit back and think "come to papa" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 the PSUHoffman storms seems to have 9 lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That kind of mass dumping of QPF can weaken a southern stream cutoff VERY fast owing to latent energy release through the depth of the column. It seems to be the only model doing this so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No precip hole. Pretty uniform up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Next up is the EURO. I wonder if it will go back to the 24-30 hour long event from a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the only thing we can SAFELY say(90% safe) is that this is not a Miller B like the GFS was showing all of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This board is flooded with weenies right now making up all kinds of nonsense. Could folks do more reading and let the mets provide analysis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This isn't true at all. Temps crash as precip moves in. careful Phineas, the thicknesses are above 540 so even though NCEP maps indicate surface and 850's are good for most of the event, there must be a nagging warm layer in there some where gotta check soundings once they are ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Next up is the EURO. I wonder if it will go back to the 24-30 hour long event from a few runs ago. no, next up is hr 102....still waiting...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This isn't true at all. Temps crash as precip moves in. On panel 96... the 0C line is in western MD... that means rain for the major cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No precip hole. Pretty uniform up the coast. I noticed that and it alone, feels like a victory of sorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems to be the only model doing this so far though. It mainly does it because the GFS "elongates" the trough so much that the eventual southern PV max is very compact and small. The CMC has a much larger southern PV max and it doesn't weaken though such processes as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think a sneaky -NAO is helping with this solution look at whats going on in Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On panel 96... the 0C line is in western MD... that means rain for the major cities. What? NO... just NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On panel 96... the 0C line is in western MD... that means rain for the major cities. Not I95 near WDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 looks like a hit I-95. It does, Wednesday evening snow showers. The picture will be clearer in 24 hours at which time people will say "forget the models, it is nowcasting time." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 On panel 96... the 0C line is in western MD... that means rain for the major cities. what the fook are you talking about. 96 shows surface at 32 and 850 below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It mainly does it because the GFS "elongates" the trough so much that the eventual southern PV max is very compact and small. The CMC has a much larger southern PV max and it doesn't weaken though such processes as quickly. Do you think the qpf shield would be better? It would seem to make since as the gfs usually does later down the road in these types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On panel 96... the 0C line is in western MD... that means rain for the major cities. What map are you looking at? Both 850 and surface are fine in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thicknesses--blah. Only way to determine precip type is through a sounding. Centered near DC--this profile would be a wet heavy snow on the GFS at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 102 is missing on Huff site....looks like it would have been good though as 108 0c lne is well off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 What map are you looking at? Both 850 and surface are fine in DC. maybe he is looking at SARCUS GGEM Map from 2007 that was never cached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 102 is missing on Huff site....looks like it would have been good though as 108 0c lne is well off the coast http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thicknesses--blah. Only way to determine precip type is through a sounding. Centered near DC--this profile would be a wet heavy snow on the GFS at 96 hrs. that's reassuring wonder why it has thicknesses at 544? anyway, like I said, need soundings and they look good all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He might be looking at the bottom right and is confused because the solid line blends in with the state boundary's lines. But who knows what he's thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_102l.gif there ya go...thanks Yoda....pretty decent at 102 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that's reassuring wonder why it has thicknesses at 544? anyway, like I said, need soundings and they look good all things considered 1000-500 hpa thickness can be very deceiving since it is over such a broad vertical region. The 500 hpa circulation is actually E of the sounding location--so the heights aren't all that low in that region. As a result--thickness values are rather high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He might be looking at the bottom right and is confused because the solid line blends in with the state boundary's lines. But who knows what he's thinking. Or its possible he is looking at the upper right which displays the thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.