Interstate Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 inland so far and I bet it will be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 and I bet it will be warm figures.... one extreme or the other lol cant find that middle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS just joined the NAM in laughing at the folks worried about an OTS miss. Yep, looks like it joined the inland camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 84 1004 augusta ga 0c coming south but how far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run could be good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep, looks like it joined the inland camp. thats not good, have to see how euro reacts, cant trust any models, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS just joined the NAM in laughing at the folks worried about an OTS miss. So is it massively inland? Safe to say I am the only person at Rumors watching the 00Z GFS come in. Where did I go wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 90 996 ilm oc lust south est of dc just west of ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 90HR... it could be a hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am a little buzzed right now, but I looked at the NAM first and was like YES!!! then came on here and read through the last few pages and was laughing my arse off. The NAM was a great run for this area and a pretty darn good one for DC and Baltimore also. The idea of a front end thump has been gone for a while now, temps in front are just not supportive. But the NAM is tracking that low ENE the last 6 hours and judging from the track of the H5 and H7 lows is about to pummel northern VA into Maryland with a changeover to heavy wet snow. I am excited to hear your buzzed meteorological analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 90HR... it could be a hit... that N vort seems to be phasing of sorts High pressure in Canada at 78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 looks like a hit I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 because the 0c line is already over northern MD... and the QPF has not even gotten there yet You are behind and sounding silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 looks like a hit I-95. wheres the 0c line Phin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's shifting west got to figure it will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wheres the 0c line Phin? Almost to RIC, cuts N al little west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Actually we don't know what we're getting. The 21Z sref were way east with the gfs, the euro was east. The 00Z nam west with the ggem. The 18Z gfs looked goofy and I doubt it's right but the nam may also not be right. I think an inland track makes a little more sense as there seems to be room for enough amplification for such a solution but that's just a guess and could be wrong. How anyone can look at this one NAM run and say anything is going to verify, throw in towels, or make long speeches about this winter has done such and such to us, off of this one NAM run is just ridiculous. Thank you Wes....btw, now that the 0Z GFS is colder, no picking up white towels people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's shifting west got to figure it will continue to do so. Or maybe it will just show another solution in six hours like it has been doing for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So is it massively inland? Safe to say I am the only person at Rumors watching the 00Z GFS come in. Where did I go wrong... lol. Now that is dedication. I used to love that place 20-25 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Stuck at 96HR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that N vort seems to be phasing of sorts High pressure in Canada at 78 hrs LOL, 1028mb high over SSM at 90 hours. Where did that come from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Or maybe it will just show another solution in six hours like it has been doing for days. True the gFS is not handling this storm well. It seems to smash the vort too quick. Maybe it will go back to miller B. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 thats a pretty quick mover for a closed H5 low isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You are behind and sounding silly. you might say I am silly, however most of the QPF would fall as rain for I-95 East... Major cities would be mostly rain this run... it is very close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 True the gFS is not handling this storm well. It seems to smash the vort too quick. That kind of mass dumping of QPF can weaken a southern stream cutoff VERY fast owing to latent energy release through the depth of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way better than 18Z. Anyone writing this off now needs to just STFU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have some margin of error too on the GFS. NAM (extrapolated) and GFS both have the 500mb LP track SE of DCA. Thats a pretty good set up for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 you might say I am silly, however most of the QPF would fall as rain for I-95 East... Major cities would be mostly rain this run... it is very close though. This isn't true at all. Temps crash as precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Or maybe it will just show another solution in six hours like it has been doing for days. Yes...Hello?!.....c'mon people pay attention to what's been happening for 3 days....NO solution is etched right now, and may not be til Monday night, or Tuesday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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