PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM is a big-time inland rainstorm through 78HR. Looks nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep back to a really wet run look. Anyone trying to nail down OTS vs inland deluge is crazy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd liking my chops if I was in NE w/this map they'll have the time for that S. Canadian vort to phase in for a huge storm, you watch http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam500mbHGHTNA078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 going nuts at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 In summary, we can get a snowstorm with the high offshore, PDII PDI 4 March 1960, and we can get a snowstorm with a low in the lakes 22 January 1987, but the two of them together aren't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 995 over central NC at 84HR. I guess it doesn't agree with the "seasonal trend" precip hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd liking my chops if I was in NE w/this map they'll have the time for that S. Canadian vort to phase in for a huge storm, you watch http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA078.gif looks pretty good to shoot rain at us and redevelop off the coast to slam sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM has pound a stake through the Mid-Atlantic snow heart of the storm. 1. Surface low off Delaware and trucking east; what an efficient means to warm the lower levels of the atmosphere!! 2. Hour 66 shows the strong 500 mb low trying to go negative tilt way down south in Dixie and too close to the Mississippi River to paint a pretty picture. Well, at least we can get some of the salt washed off of our streets. Yepp, a real pooched winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Run ends way inland, way wet. EDIT: Soaking wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd liking my chops if I was in NE w/this map they'll have the time for that S. Canadian vort to phase in for a huge storm, you watch http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam500mbHGHTNA078.gif 84HR doesn't looks promising for them unless the low heads due east and then NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 nam is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM has pound a stake through the Mid-Atlantic snow heart of the storm. 1. Surface low off Delaware and trucking east; what an efficient means to warm the lower levels of the atmosphere. 2. Hour 66 shows the strong 500 mb low trying to go negative tilt way down south in Dixie and too close to the Mississippi River to paint a pretty picture. Well, at least we can get some of the salt washed off of our streets. Yepp, a real poocher of a winter. Your posts are always a bit over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks pretty good to shoot rain at us and redevelop off the coast to slam sne You see that low redeveloping offshore? It looks pretty wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You see that low redeveloping offshore? It looks pretty wrapped up. i guess not.. 500 went nuts in the last 2 panels.. cabin time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks pretty good to shoot rain at us and redevelop off the coast to slam sne Extrapolating, I'm pertty sure ORH goes to rain too. Winner is the spine of the APPS and west, aka the Armpit of America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Your posts are always a bit over the top. I've fiddled with the PSUhoffman storm for a whole bunch of model runs. It is a souffle that someone slammed the oven door upon. The NAM's strength is in getting the thermal modeling accurate and this OZ run is compelling. I like snow as much as everyone else here but pessimistic forecasting has been mostly reliable this season with exception of a couple of mild overperforming systems. Everything else has looked promising until 72 hrs. out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i guess not.. 500 went nuts in the last 2 panels.. cabin time Garrett County kills with that track. I'm sure Phin won't object to putting us all up there for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've fiddled with the PSUhoffman storm for a whole bunch of model runs. It is a souffle that someone slammed the oven door upon. The NAM's strength is in getting the thermal modeling accurate and this OZ run is compelling. I like snow as much as everyone else here but pessimistic forecasting has been mostly reliable this season with exception of a couple of mild overperforming systems. Everything else has looked promising until 72 hrs. out. actually, its pretty warm for everyone relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 its a good run. Means no solution is off the table. NAM 850 line is very close to Leesburg even with the extreme west track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM/GFS are bipolar at this point. JMA went west. GFS/EURO are east NAM, GGEM, UKMET, JMA, are west. yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM has pound a stake through the Mid-Atlantic snow heart of the storm. 1. Surface low off Delaware and trucking east; what an efficient means to warm the lower levels of the atmosphere!! 2. Hour 66 shows the strong 500 mb low trying to go negative tilt way down south in Dixie and too close to the Mississippi River to paint a pretty picture. Well, at least we can get some of the salt washed off of our streets. Yepp, a real pooched winter. Who would have imagined such a travesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny how people are making deterministic statements off of this run. NAM may be superior in thermal profiling but is it superior in track output? There is no way any distinctive forecast could be made off of this. The only thing reinforced by this run is that snow is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its a good run. Means no solution is off the table. NAM 850 line is very close to Leesburg even with the extreme west track The low looks like it's moving ENE on the last frame as well. Maybe go to VA beach then up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM past 48 hours-----lol. I remember with our last little "storm", the NAM had a run or 2 where it wrapped up a low to our west and had the area in rain. It looks overdone at this point. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny how people are making deterministic statements off of this run. NAM may be superior in thermal profiling but is it superior in track output? There is no way any distinctive forecast could be made off of this. The only thing reinforced by this run is that snow is unlikely. People are being a bit nuts over this storm. Calling for an OTS miss or an inland rainer and then claiming victory when a model shows the opposite is pretty silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 good i guess that means no more posting for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does this mean no more Mad Cheese posts until next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its a good run. Means no solution is off the table. NAM 850 line is very close to Leesburg even with the extreme west track yeah, its gonna be close http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPUS084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, many of us, including myself, were asking for this last night at this time when the GFS showed a Miller B that was only going to give us 3 to 5 inches of snow with up to a foot not far away on Pa border. We said we'd rather take our chances with a rain storm. NAM says = Wish granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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