Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM will save us. CRAS will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Persistence forecasting has limitations, mainly that at anytime the pattern can change and it is impossible to know until after the fact. You also seem to think that persistence only works for DC and Baltimore for some reason because when something happens that goes against the seasonal pattern somewhere else you do not seem to find that as evidence against a seasonal pattern. So somehow persistence works in Baltimore but not if were forecasting for State College, or Atlanta or CHicago. Not sure what your scientific argument for that is. Finally, there is statistical evidence to disprove your theory of persistence forecasting. I pointed out 1958 the other day, but more recently in 2009 we had barely any snowfall all winter then DC/Baltimore eastward got a MECS in early March. 2007 was a blowtorch until the end of January and then it was cold and snow from then on with several snow and ice storms. Just looking at records for my location, 1992/93 sticks out when Manchester had virtually no snow going into the second week of February and then got 39" from that point on. THere is a place for factoring the pattern into expectations and it is especially good for long range forecasting but you are misusing it badly here by acting like there is no way for a storm to do anything other then what past events would dictate. It may work for a while but it will eventually go down in flames when a storm does not follow the pattern. look, this is my last comment because apparently a few don't understand precisely what I said specifically, I said some years it just won't snow at DCA and BWI, no matter what the reason, no matter what the pattern or where the storm is supposed to comes from I didn't say why but, but it happens; obviously, sometimes it is caused by the large scale pattern affecting a large portion of the east (97/98 mega NINO) and others from smaller scale circumstances that I don't claim to know or understand (72/73 and 00/01) there is this hangup that it means in the current pattern; so let me be even clearer, I didn't say the current pattern only, I'm saying this winter season no matter what the pattern or circumstances this year feels like 72/73 and 00/01 to me so that is why I called this winter a bust and didn't expect to get more than an additional 5" at BWI for the rest of the winter after 1/16 is there high bust potential? sure, but what the he!! do I care; people that do it for a living on this Board and get paid a lot of money bust questioning me on it, trying to get me to change my mind, trying to argue how wrong or "unwise" such a forecast may be is a waste of time its a call from the gut; we've all made them and sometimes they are right and sometimes they're wrong and for the 1000th time, I really, really hope I'm wrong and will continue to follow storms with the hope we get snow, but that doesn't change my opinion for the rest of the winter now let's hope the NAM doesn't disappoint tonight so that all of you can have your fun should I bust at least I have the courage of my convictions in no uncertain terms and am not afraid to say it regardless of the high bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thru 24 Nam slightly stronger with the SW. One of the votmaxesover MT is in the same spot as 18z, looks like there was no new obs in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ugh... That is ugly. very ugly but one thing different here from December 26th, there is no block in a position that is keeping the flow from backing. In that event things had to progress east to our south because the flow could not back in time. Wes made a very good post about this. THis time there is nothing preventing the H5 flow from backing in time for this storm to progress north. I really do not see a reason why this storm would slide OTS like that and then bomb out and hook north. The prime time for this to bomb out according to where the H5 trough is digging and when the vort rounds the base of the trough is down in the southeast NOT off the mid atlantic coast. I am not ready to roll with this OTS solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 even with the differences between storms (and yes this one did look better and i guess still does) the slp tracks are fairly consistent. i dont have a case study and it could be just this yr but it seems everything is forming too far east to the south of us be it initially in the ngom or off the se coast. then you add in a bit slower development than modeled (no explosiveness till in miller b zone) you run into a lot of problems here. im not ready to throw out the wound up and close solution but i think this one is gaining traction and perhaps quickly, tho 0z could completely disprove that assumption. it seems we are a bit too far south for northern stream systems and too far north for what little southern juice the pattern could muster this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mitchnick mentioned '00-'01, which this has felt like to me since before 12/26. So much chatter on this board about the models not being consistent this year. Wonder what would've been said in that year, when 12"-18" was consistently shown on models up to and inside 36 hours for more than one storm, and we got screwed the whole year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM will save us. 18z NAM was a whiff for the most part anywhere west of Baltimore if you believe the DGEX. But its fantasy range and its the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z NAM says we are going for a ride with its h5 maps at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NAM was a whiff for the most part anywhere west of Baltimore if you believe the DGEX. But its fantasy range and its the DGEX I never believe the DGEX and neither should you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 drive a motorcycle into a tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it seems we are a bit too far south for northern stream systems and too far north for what little southern juice the pattern could muster this year correct, that is precisely the problem we have had. THe "snowhole" actually has a reason in that the the precip south of us is from a southern stream that has not been able to be captured and brought north by the northern stream because it is too progressive and not digging enough. The northern stream being progressive and troughs not gaining enough depth for our area is why the northern precip goes north. The west part of the precip is the mtns causing upslope snows to our west. The precip is as the southern precip being able to turn north slowly once far enough east to be captured by the northern stream. Its not just random chance. With all that said, the reason its important to identify the "why" in the cause of the snowhole is so that we can see if a storm has the chance to break the mold that has caused this snowhole. I was the first to punt on the last storm because from a week out I said it fit the seasonal patter. H5 pattern was northern stream dominant and not digging nearly south enough. I said this would trend north at the surface. I said the same from the storm January 11th when some were still holding out for a big snow. This time there is a different dynamic involved and that is the jet is finally digging to our south. The cause for us being screwed is not there this time. Now that does not mean we will get snow. This could really be a true NADS where we find a new way to get screwed over but this time we have a trough digging south and west of us. SOmetimes things just dont work out but its too easy to say "sh*t happens" its much better to try to understand why things did not work out and not just lump everything together under a broad general all encompassing pattern excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 is it only me that looks at this map and shakes one's head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it seems we are a bit too far south for northern stream systems and too far north for what little southern juice the pattern could muster this year basically. that's sorta why i wish we'd throw out miller a/b for this season. even gulf 'origin' lows are acting like miller bs so far. not that this will, but i certainly would expect it to develop more slowly than some of the most ambitious runs that we saw recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that shortwave way up in Canada is going to be a player I'm just not certain whether it will be good or bad I would certainly prefer to see High pressure in its location that's for certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it seems we are a bit too far south for northern stream systems and too far north for what little southern juice the pattern could muster this year That's why I sometimes feel that the DC/Baltimore area is more vulnerable to Nina screwjobs than either the north or south. It seems like La Nina "hates" our area more, hence the snow hole. But it's probably just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 basically. that's sorta why i wish we'd throw out miller a/b for this season. even gulf 'origin' lows are acting like miller bs so far. not that this will, but i certainly would expect it to develop more slowly than some of the most ambitious runs that we saw recently. one W-E bowling ball, with the trough base along the V/NC border, that's all I ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that shortwave way up in Canada is going to be a player I'm just not certain whether it will be good or bad I would certainly prefer to see High pressure in its location that's for certain Bad, it either gives us rain or pushes the storm out to sea, because the setup sucks and the high moved offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This thing keeps looking like it wants to cut but hasn't through 66HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This thing keeps looking like it wants to cut but hasn't through 66HR. Where are you getting your maps faster than NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Where are you getting your maps faster than NCEP? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00znam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This thing keeps looking like it wants to cut but hasn't through 66HR. it did the same (or similar) at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Bad, it either gives us rain or pushes the storm out to sea, because the setup sucks and the high moved offshore. well, at 18Z it almost looked like it wanted to drop into the eastern trough and regenerate the storm but no High in Canada and no cold High over the plains almost certainly leaves us all washed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...els/00znam.html Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This thing keeps looking like it wants to cut but hasn't through 66HR. I think its because that other trough is on its heels (the one in S Canada) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think its because that other trough is on its heels (the one in S Canada) too many vorts to give us a good rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 too many vorts to give us a good rainstorm and they never seem to be there on the 5 day maps, but are there shining as bright as stars come 3 days before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 72hr ,850 line moves north of most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 too many vorts to give us a good rainstorm NAM seems OK with the rainstorm idea through 72HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM seems OK with the rainstorm idea through 72HR. yeah it should run it right at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep back to a really wet run look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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