MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know that the Euro's shift east over the last 24 hours may not be dramatic, but central MD went fro 2+ inches of liquid to 0.5 inches. If this northern kicker that seems to be showing up on the models today is for real, things may trend even more easterly. Hopefully, the kicker will be slower/weaker so as not to push the storm too far OTS. FWIW, JB is going with the GGEM/JMA as they support his view that the storm is coming up the east coast. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 you were stating that the mean is better than the parts that go into it... and i was just stating that then you must like the mean cause its good for us... thats all yeah but my point was if you take a warm solution and an ots solution and combine them they might be good but the model doesnt even actually show that when it runs. yes.. i realize a member or three might but there do seem to be two distinct camps still and the mean is just going in between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Going back to what Baroclinic_Instability said earlier about how difficult this will be for the models... According to the NAM, the energy for the Wednesday storm is not out of the Northern Rockies until 6z (1 A.M.) Monday. This makes me feel confident that relatively large model fluctuations will continue until the last 48 hours leading up to the storm. This has been pretty typical for this year anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know that the Euro's shift east over the last 24 hours may not be dramatic, but central MD went fro 2+ inches of liquid to 0.5 inches. If this northern kicker that seems to be showing up on the models today is for real, things may trend even more easterly. Hopefully, the kicker will be slower/weaker so as not to push the storm too far OTS. FWIW, JB is going with the GGEM/JMA as they support his view that the storm is coming up the east coast. MDstorm JB wont budge from his thinking no matter how bad it makes him look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gens/18/model_m.shtml Looks for 2m temp and precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z gfs snow plots for the ens members http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf108.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z gfs snow plots for the ens members http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf108.html 6 of the 11 look good for at least 3"... which many of us I am sure would take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z gfs snow plots for the ens members http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf108.html About half are OK for some snow, a few of those are stellar. The rest are clearly east misses. Some wicked snowholes on several. IMO, a west shift by the GFS would not necessarily be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6 of the 11 look good for at least 3"... which many of us I am sure would take some of them (the precip hole ones) are basically all deform/backend/comma/whatnot type snow which you can believe in at your own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbarney Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is what Blacksburg is saying.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA618 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPINGARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INCONTROL THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENINGBY MONDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THESOUTHEAST STATES BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THECOAST...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW FORPARTS OF THE REGION. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. SREF/GEFS AND OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS ARE STILL ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS IMPRESSIVE LIFT INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA OR FARTHER EAST...BETWEEN THE HEAVY SNOW AND THE RAIN. WAY TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE OR AMOUNTS SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STAYED WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG CAD IN PLACE. ONCE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ACROSS SE WV AND AREAS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MILDER AIR IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobie Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know the models are still trying to find a way to rain on our parade, but someone - somewhere could get a bomb dropped on them with this system. I believe she's gonna slow down (unlike the last 4 N/Easters) and crawl up the coast. Here around the beltway, the ever present line always plays with our emotions. With the storm tracks, in a year like the one we are experiencing, not on our side I am not anticipating a white Wednesday. However, I'm not ready to jump ship this far out ether. Justification for this storm's obedience three days away is not an easy call...yet. I've been led astray too many times this year. So tonight I will ignore any negative signs of approaching doom and concentrate on freezing my *ss off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hmm, 12Z Euro said Hatteras would get .37" qpf today and they got .63", all of which was snow...and its still snowing lightly http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KHSE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hmm, 12Z Euro said Hatteras would get .37" qpf today and they got .63", all of which was snow...and its still snowing lightly http://weather.noaa....rrent/KHSE.html it is a new and different screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hmm, 12Z Euro said Hatteras would get .37" qpf today and they got .63", all of which was snow...and its still snowing lightly http://weather.noaa....rrent/KHSE.html Wow... still thats incredible snow for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it is a new and different screwjob remember folks, I didn't say it, he did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 remember folks, I didn't say it, he did yeah but i said it like a week ago when dt was hyping it for us. that was before the seasonal trend was apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 im not sure i'd take much from the over qpf'ing.. euro was pretty consistent in giving them snow and had significantly higher water content *just* offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow... still thats incredible snow for them What was their snowfall total? 8ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z gfs snow plots for the ens members http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf108.html 8 of the 11 are WSW-criteria snow back here, which is better than the 0.02" the op gives from that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hmm, 12Z Euro said Hatteras would get .37" qpf today and they got .63", all of which was snow...and its still snowing lightly http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KHSE.html euro also had surface temps to warm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 sref pretty progressive.. 500 track sorta there but qpf naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 but see, that's been my whole mantra of the season if there's a way to miss us, it will, whatever it takes NAM is still encouraging, but we saw that snow hole pop up before the storm before last (3 days before I believe) and I posted that it was a red flag well, another red flag if nothing else, my theory that some winters it just won't/can't snow no matter what the set up will be tested, for better or for worse Persistence forecasting has limitations, mainly that at anytime the pattern can change and it is impossible to know until after the fact. You also seem to think that persistence only works for DC and Baltimore for some reason because when something happens that goes against the seasonal pattern somewhere else you do not seem to find that as evidence against a seasonal pattern. So somehow persistence works in Baltimore but not if were forecasting for State College, or Atlanta or CHicago. Not sure what your scientific argument for that is. Finally, there is statistical evidence to disprove your theory of persistence forecasting. I pointed out 1958 the other day, but more recently in 2009 we had barely any snowfall all winter then DC/Baltimore eastward got a MECS in early March. 2007 was a blowtorch until the end of January and then it was cold and snow from then on with several snow and ice storms. Just looking at records for my location, 1992/93 sticks out when Manchester had virtually no snow going into the second week of February and then got 39" from that point on. THere is a place for factoring the pattern into expectations and it is especially good for long range forecasting but you are misusing it badly here by acting like there is no way for a storm to do anything other then what past events would dictate. It may work for a while but it will eventually go down in flames when a storm does not follow the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 euro also had surface temps to warm as well no real comparison.. fresh arctic air, much colder 850s, if it was off on the surface it was off a whole lot less than it shows with the storm upcoming. they were also right on the nw edge of the heavier and got deformed.. that's pretty classic for "easy" overperformance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 sref pretty progressive.. 500 track sorta there but qpf naso much ots for us, not for ENE and the beat goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 im not sure i'd take much from the over qpf'ing.. euro was pretty consistent in giving them snow and had significantly higher water content *just* offshore. I think it just says stuff like temps and QPF do bust so flipping out over one or two degrees at 90 hours and acting like it cannot change is a total weenie move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ots for us, not for ENE and the beat goes on Ugh... That is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ots for us, not for ENE and the beat goes on even with the differences between storms (and yes this one did look better and i guess still does) the slp tracks are fairly consistent. i dont have a case study and it could be just this yr but it seems everything is forming too far east to the south of us be it initially in the ngom or off the se coast. then you add in a bit slower development than modeled (no explosiveness till in miller b zone) you run into a lot of problems here. im not ready to throw out the wound up and close solution but i think this one is gaining traction and perhaps quickly, tho 0z could completely disprove that assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 sref pretty progressive.. 500 track sorta there but qpf naso much I'm afraid things are lining up for the familiar type screw job. Things more progressive with precip lining up SW to NE as opposed to the uniform soaking that was depicted yesterday. What might be telling is the GGEM ensembles mean. Even though the GGEM operational had high qpf across the region, the ensemble mean looks painfully all too familiar. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep96144.gif MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm afraid things are lining up for the familiar type screw job. Things more progressive with precip lining up SW to NE as opposed to the uniform soaking that was depicted yesterday. What might be telling is the GGEM ensembles mean. Even though the GGEM operational had high qpf across the region, the ensemble mean looks painfully all too familiar. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep96144.gif MDstorm same problem all winter.. too many shortwaves and not enough ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 same problem all winter.. too many shortwaves and not enough ridging. NAM will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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