PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah i suppose depending on how you want to look at it tho im not sure why someone would have been on board for much this morning. How are you looking at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I like the ensembles.. they haven't moved much so far that i can see They have been stubborn with every storm, they tend to cave as one moves in the 72 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They have been stubborn with every storm, they tend to cave as one moves in the 72 hour range. We'll see. I would take them over the OP right now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Individual ensemble members look great!!! For the record, when one posts this :arrowhead: IT'S A JOKE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How are you looking at it? we need to thread the needle.. it doesnt work well here. right now it seems like we could get an OK track with not enough cold. storms have not developed fast enough for our neck and that might be the seasonal trend of most note rather than some weird idea that there is a snow eating field around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You would think that it would be difficult to model this accurately at this range because of where the players are located currently. If I'm not mistaken, the primary energy is still in the GOA, just coming onshore. And, is the energy in the northern plains at 84 on the NAM the reason that this gets kicked to sea? If so, that energy is way out in the Pacific. Well, someone can educate me on this line of thinking. I'm just hoping for high QPF, just to see if it can actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Individual ensemble members look great!!! For the record, when one posts this :arrowhead: IT'S A JOKE!!! how can it be a joke when they do look good for right now? as well as the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 how can it be a joke when they do look good for right now? as well as the euro ensembles? No, I posted those emoticons with the map showing the 200 hour threat and said "this is the one". Bunch of weenies piled on and thought I was serious and began to tell me why I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 how can it be a joke when they do look good for right now? as well as the euro ensembles? on e-wall it looks like about 2 indiv members are very good for dc and the other areas nearby or in a ne/sw line. the others are all warm or too far east. maybe 1 or two more that work for further west. there are a couple with us in some of the comma after missing out on a front end but we'll see how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What are you talking about? Clearly there's still disagreement with the models. And as we saw today there have been huge shifts in the GFS run-to-run. It went from Miller A to Miller B to Miller A OTS to Miller A NC coast and OTS. In one day. The only thing consistent is that none gave us decent snow! Next...(Looking ahead to Dec 5 storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Right on schedule: Sean, No worries, but your graphic started running one of those phony spyware scans when I tried to open it. Just sayin. Maybe it's my computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 on e-wall it looks like about 2 indiv members are very good for dc and the other areas nearby or in a ne/sw line. the others are all warm or too far east. maybe 1 or two more that work for further west. there are a couple with us in some of the comma after missing out on a front end but we'll see how that works out. I count about 6 as good hits... one has the storm moving into our region... 3-4 are either OTS or NE of us... and one is no good at all at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sean, No worries, but your graphic started running one of those phony spyware scans when I tried to open it. Just sayin. Maybe it's my computer. I had the same problem too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sean, No worries, but your graphic started running one of those phony spyware scans when I tried to open it. Just sayin. Maybe it's my computer. 4chan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I guess there is something to be said about seasonal trends. It worked in our favor last year. This year it has seriously screwed me. While the threat is not over, does anyone really have any confidence that this storm will not miss us/me to the S/E. It would fit the trend for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I count about 6 as good hits... one has the storm moving into our region... 3-4 are either OTS or NE of us... and one is no good at all at 96 hrs i dont think so. if nothing else the bl on some will be warm even if the track looks ok. raleigh's are better to glean from but they arent out yet. either way it's not something im going to hang my hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont think so. if nothing else the bl on some will be warm even if the track looks ok. raleigh's are better to glean from but they arent out yet. either way it's not something im going to hang my hat on. I was using e-wall's btw. bl are close enough on 4 of them that it should be wet snow for I-95 W... 2 others are more near the BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I guess there is something to be said about seasonal trends. It worked in our favor last year. This year it has seriously screwed me. While the threat is not over, does anyone really have any confidence that this storm will not miss us/me to the S/E. It would fit the trend for sure. It's hard to have confidence in anything, good or bad, at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there even a needle to thread here? Does anyone think that H5 dynamics will bring in enough cold air to support snow in any case? I think the latest NAM is as close to a best case scenario as possible and we can't even see past 84 hours. If we get anything over an inch out of this storm I think it would go against the probabilities at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there even a needle to thread here? Does anyone think that H5 dynamics will bring in enough cold air to support snow in any case? I think the latest NAM is as close to a best case scenario as possible and we can't even see past 84 hours. If we get anything over an inch out of this storm I think it would go against the probabilities at this point. The chances seem to be diminishing, but we cannot rule anything out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The chances seem to be diminishing, but we cannot rule anything out at this point. Ellinwood says we can get thundersnows in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is 84hrs that was not posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The chances seem to be diminishing, but we cannot rule anything out at this point. LWX NWS gives three scenarios. One to the west GGEM/NAM with all rain. One ECMWF/GFS ensemble compromise for mostly snow. And one GFS far east and out to sea. As far as I can tell that indicates there is a needle that could be threaded here. Wide range of possible solutions still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is 84hrs that was not posted... img And? Some of those members still are good for I-95 W re: wet snow 90 -- http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f90.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LWX NWS gives three scenarios. One to the west GGEM/NAM with all rain. One ECMWF/GFS ensemble compromise for mostly snow. And one GFS far east and out to sea. As far as I can tell that indicates there is a needle that could be threaded here. Wide range of possible solutions still. there's still a pretty sizable spread on the gfs ensemble members. the mean is better than the parts that go into it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 there's still a pretty sizable spread on the gfs ensemble members. the mean is better than the parts that go into it imo. the mean is actually pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the mean is actually pretty good does that even address my post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ellinwood says we can get thundersnows in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday!!!! Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the mean is actually pretty good Spread is more important. If half are OTS and half are warm rain, does the mean give you any confidence of a middle ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 does that even address my post? you were stating that the mean is better than the parts that go into it... and i was just stating that then you must like the mean cause its good for us... thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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