baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So...BI...are you buying this extreme western flank cut-off? What is the explanation for the mechanism behind this? There is no goliath HIGH to suppress moisture convergence at the mid-levels. What is snuffing the juice on the west side of this otherwise respectable-looking storm? What is going on here? It is a stretching deformation zone that develops in systems like this where the southern low becomes so deep it partially cuts off from the main belt of westerlies. I tried to crudely draw it up in central/western using the CMC as an example: http://www.americanw...post__p__337959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So...BI...are you buying this extreme western flank cut-off? What is the explanation for the mechanism behind this? There is no goliath HIGH to suppress moisture convergence at the mid-levels. What is snuffing the juice on the west side of this otherwise respectable-looking storm? What is going on here? I'm not BI. There's a compact H5 low which tracks too far east. There is a SW ridge over the coast. Not a good h5 track, especially for a mini storm. Also the western ridge comes barging east during the storm and that pushes the whole pattern east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How far west was the .5" line on the Euro? balt to dc to like the center of va at the nc/va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 needless to say, that is more than coincidental to just this storm folks probably not time to declare victory yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 While I see your joke about the snow-hole, this is not really a jumper. The low is juiced in the GOM. It just misses, is all. but see, that's been my whole mantra of the season if there's a way to miss us, it will, whatever it takes NAM is still encouraging, but we saw that snow hole pop up before the storm before last (3 days before I believe) and I posted that it was a red flag well, another red flag if nothing else, my theory that some winters it just won't/can't snow no matter what the set up will be tested, for better or for worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 probably not time to declare victory yet victory, not at all more importantly, another missed snow storm ain't victory in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 balt to dc to like the center of va at the nc/va border So the GGEM is the only model bringing the storm inland then? With the seasonal trends I'd say it might be OTS, but on the other hand, with no blocking to the north I'm not sure why this is going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm not BI. There's a compact H5 low which tracks too far east. There is a SW ridge over the coast. Not a good h5 track, especially for a mini storm. Also the western ridge comes barging east during the storm and that pushes the whole pattern east. The big player here is the dynamical interactions and the height field configuration. Using the CMC as an example: I poorly drew a ridge axis in the 500 hpa height field--and I drew an arrow which depicts the general flow of the northern stream westerlies as the northern branch "cuts" off the southern stream. A region of deformation (deforming) develops--in this case stretching deformation (shearing deformation is another kind--and both are a kinematic flow property of air). Note the 700 hpa region of stretching that develops. Here is a "model" example of a perfect stretching deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The big player here is the dynamical interactions and the height field configuration. Using the CMC as an example: I poorly drew a ridge axis in the 500 hpa height field--and I drew an arrow which depicts the general flow of the northern stream westerlies as the northern branch "cuts" off the southern stream. A region of deformation (deforming) develops--in this case stretching deformation (shearing deformation is another kind--and both are a kinematic flow property of air). Here is a "model" example of a perfect stretching deformation zone. Thanks Is this is, also causes the H5 disturbance to shink and contract. The big troff in the MS Valley, becomes a golf ball of the VA coast. I know wavelegnths shorten during cyclogensis but comon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at least NADS is hitting HSE SPECI KHSE 222237Z AUTO 03014G26KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV004 M01/M02 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 02027/2201 P0013 TSNO $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Screw this storm. Here's the one we've been building up to all season: :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks Is this is, also causes the H5 disturbance to shink and contract. The big troff in the MS Valley, becomes a golf ball of the VA coast. I know wavelegnths shorten during cyclogensis but comon!! Yeah exactly--it was what I was worried about during the play by play as it seemed this trough was going to elongate far too much--and the eventual southern PV max would be tiny and compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Screw this storm. Here's the one we've been building up to all season: :arrowhead: wash rinse repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 but see, that's been my whole mantra of the season if there's a way to miss us, it will, whatever it takes NAM is still encouraging, but we saw that snow hole pop up before the storm before last (3 days before I believe) and I posted that it was a red flag well, another red flag if nothing else, my theory that some winters it just won't/can't snow no matter what the set up will be tested, for better or for worse It's kind of hard to take your theory seriously when you were using the same one last night to explain why a storm was gong to track 100 miles inland while now you are using to justify why the storm may track 200 miles OTS. Is there some kind of magnetic snow shield over the MId-Atlantic? Short of that, you need some science to back up your assertion that this particular storm will be a miss just because no storm can track close enough to the Mid-Atlantic this year to give us snow. I get your point about the overall pattern, but many of the previous years you speak of without a lot of snow were far milder and there were far less threats to track. We've basically had non-stop snow threats to track since mid December. I'm still thinking one of these is going to give us at least some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Screw this storm. Here's the one we've been building up to all season: :arrowhead: weve been building up to all of them just to be dissapointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 we just need to start from scratch. hopefully the pattern gets better during feb. seasonal pattern is OK to a degree but they dont usually hold the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 go west ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 go west ensembles Unfortunately, the GFS ensemble mean precip is also shifting east over the last 24 hours. Hard to believe what looked like a power packed moisture-laden storm may be a whiff to the east here . MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 In a normal season tonight's 0Z runs might be telling, but no matter what they show they will likely change dramatically by morning. God I miss last season when things were more predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Unfortunately, the GFS ensemble mean precip is also shifting east over the last 24 hours. Hard to believe what looked like a power packed moisture-laden storm may be a whiff to the east here . MDstorm It's far from the final solution dude....you should stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ive heard this before. Screw this storm.....this is "the one"...thats been said about every storm this season. give it a break. Folks are already giving up on this one. Ji will soon make a thread about the usual 200 hour threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For those giving up, you really need to keep it to yourselves. It was well known that models would be changing everyday until Monday-Tues......the model madness is suppose to happen. No one should be giivng up on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Folks are already giving up on this one. Ji will soon make a thread about the usual 200 hour threat. Right on schedule: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Folks are already giving up on this one. Ji will soon make a thread about the usual 200 hour threat. the problem is even if it trends northwest it's still warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Most of these look really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Unfortunately, the GFS ensemble mean precip is also shifting east over the last 24 hours. Hard to believe what looked like a power packed moisture-laden storm may be a whiff to the east here . MDstorm What are you talking about? Clearly there's still disagreement with the models. And as we saw today there have been huge shifts in the GFS run-to-run. It went from Miller A to Miller B to Miller A OTS to Miller A NC coast and OTS. In one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At least Roanoke VA looks to fare pretty well snow wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the problem is even if it trends northwest it's still warm If a person was on-board this morning, I am not sure why the Euro and 18Z runs would have led him/her to jump ship. Those runs all had some promising aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If a person was on-board this morning, I am not sure why the Euro and 18Z runs would have led him/her to jump ship. Those runs all had some promising aspects. yeah i suppose depending on how you want to look at it tho im not sure why someone would have been on board for much this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I like the ensembles.. they haven't moved much so far that i can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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