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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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How long of an event are we looking at here? I know earlier it was a very long event.

Well, it began on January 18th at 6:56 AM. So, we've already endured nearly 60 hours from a storm that hasn't even dropped a sprinkle.......tee hee...smile.gif.

But seriously, someone had said earlier that the "main event" may be one of long duration (36 hrs) but I am willing to bet that if it happens it won't last more than 24 hrs (just a guess based upon experience from observations of similar situations.

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Well, it began on January 18th at 6:56 AM. So, we've already endured nearly 60 hours from a storm that hasn't even dropped a sprinkle.......tee hee...smile.gif.

But seriously, someone had said earlier that the "main event" may be one of long duration (36 hrs) but I am willing to bet that if it happens it won't last more than 24 hrs (just a guess based upon experience from observations of similar situations.

As far as concerns for this storm that's like number 1,742

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Well nobody likes saying it but this will be another needle thread event as everything would need to happen perfectly for snow as opposed to rain alone. As modeled by the GFS--this storm remains generally progressive and compact--and since it is along the coast and given the height field configuration--the greatest mid level/low level height falls are too far E. The deformation band that develops would be injecting warm, moist marine air and since the height falls are ehad of the wave--that is bad news. Dynamic snows don't look like a threat like they may have been two days ago when the models were slower and stronger with the southern PV with heights crashing through a pretty vertical layer.

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For everyone out there--the Pacific jet pattern is getting close to "transitoire" in this image.

Ok not really--but the flow pattern out there is becoming close to higher order turbulent/non-laminar flow in the westerly pattern. Note the similarities.

post-999-0-15726800-1295728505.jpg

post-999-0-39714400-1295728637.gif

What are the implications of this. More Shortwaves?

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When is the N stream energy going to be sampled in the models? Tomorrow?

All of the phasing events this year had wide swings in the models until the timing and location of the phase was pretty much figured out. LWX mentioned that the N stream disturbance was still in the Gulf of AK when they wrote the AFD.

I would be a real kick in the teeth if the system is a whiff to the SE. We need some precip regardless of type.

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It ticked W through 90 but I don't know if any of that is snow--can't tell unless I see soundings.

So...BI...are you buying this extreme western flank cut-off?

What is the explanation for the mechanism behind this?

There is no goliath HIGH to suppress moisture convergence at the

mid-levels. What is snuffing the juice on the west side of this

otherwise respectable-looking storm?

What is going on here?

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I think it is amusing how many solutions we have seen. 24 hours ago the GFS had a MIller B MECS and the other models had a warm inland low. Now we are talking about an OTS miss off the SE coast. :lol:

Yep, and tomorrows 0Z and 12Z runs are pretty much going to end the roller coaster. Then we'll all be freaking out over the little details. SLP a few miles this way......850's a few miles that way..... The hotline is going to be busy.

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