PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 that would work also but were starting to get slower to a time range when the location of major high pressure is modeled a little better and its still trending in the wrong direction. That lead northern stream vort is a huge problem. As for my scenario not being viable, its not common but with the H5 track all the models agree on its possible and it does happen once in a while. I will agree the trend in the high pressure is troubling, and the storm has trended faster like we wanted but unfortunately the high has been forced out east faster and faster because a few days ago models were not taking that lead shortwave in the northern stream across in front of this storm. They were having that energy dive in more and be absorbed, instead now its sliding across in front and destroying the confluence. Just about all the models have that now so I am not sure irrationally hoping that is wrong is a good idea. Our best shot at this point is a full phase happening at the right time and a bombing low that tracks just to our east and a good back end dump as the H5 low crosses just south of us and heights crash. Thats our best chance right now. Sounds like you are punting, which is probably smart. You were put into a bad spot by having your name attached to a stinker against your will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ohhhhh to be in the outer banks 1/4 mile at hatteras http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sounds like you are punting, which is probably smart. You were put into a bad spot by having your name attached to a stinker against your will. not punting, as long as the models are all tracking a good h5 low over VA it would be unwise to punt. The last few storms the h5 was horrible and the surface looked good 5 days out and then we watched as it all unraveled at the surface. This time the H5 is good but the surface is bad 5 days out, perhaps the opposite trend will start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1006mb low directly over HSE at 90 hrs Low is directly east of OC MD at 96 hrs..by a good bit. Snow for everybody, 850 line is off the coast. Euro ENS Doesn't seem bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ohhhhh to be in the outer banks 1/4 mile at hatteras http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Shows you just how crazy this winter is. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The ensembles for the GFS and Euro (and GGEM) have been quite good for several cycles, so perhaps that yields some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 not punting, as long as the models are all tracking a good h5 low over VA it would be unwise to punt. The last few storms the h5 was horrible and the surface looked good 5 days out and then we watched as it all unraveled at the surface. This time the H5 is good but the surface is bad 5 days out, perhaps the opposite trend will start soon. happy to modify the thread title if you prefer....just let me know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ohhhhh to be in the outer banks 1/4 mile at hatteras http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes They're ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Operational model guidance has handled these phasing systems poorly so far this winter...resulting in lower than normal model skill and forecast confidence more than a couple days out. ^From NWS Sterling http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=LWX&StateCode=MD&SafeCityName=Baltimore Just so people stop saying that models are not handling things worse this winter than previous, If you thik that your delusional..Anyway it basically goes on to say that its still too uncertain to lean towards any forecast and says that models should handle it better when the energy moves into western Canada tomorrow. Meaningwhile 18Z NAM is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0.1-.25 with marginal boundry layer :thumbsup: :guitar: :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ...[LWX says that] it's still too uncertain to lean towards any forecast... This. I'm not even bothering with the QPF/trends until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0.1-.25 with marginal boundry layer :thumbsup: :guitar: :drunk: Not sure what you are trying to say here. Again, I am never sure what you are trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not sure what you are trying to say here. Again, I am never sure what you are trying to say. Again, please stop with the quoting of posts with images...is it really THAT hard to delete the image before you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ohhhhh to be in the outer banks 1/4 mile at hatteras http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes http://pinpoint.ecu.edu/cameras/hatteras1.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not sure what you are trying to say here. Again, I am never sure what you are trying to say. I've only put 2 people on ignore in the 10 year history of me being on the boards, He;'s one of them. Try it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ellinwood, remove the stick from your rear and see that the image is deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It sucks? Drive yourself to drink? It is the SREFs at 87HR before the storm has even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 happy to modify the thread title if you prefer....just let me know... its ok, i might as well ride with it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Operational model guidance has handled these phasing systems poorly so far this winter...resulting in lower than normal model skill and forecast confidence more than a couple days out. ^From NWS Sterling http://www.wundergro...yName=Baltimore Just so people stop saying that models are not handling things worse this winter than previous, If you thik that your delusional..Anyway it basically goes on to say that its still too uncertain to lean towards any forecast and says that models should handle it better when the energy moves into western Canada tomorrow. Meaningwhile 18Z NAM is rolling They might be right for this very specific type of event (which, by the way I'm not even sure I agree with), I don't look at things on a case-by-case basis enough. But if you (and they) are trying to make sweeping claims about model skill this winter overall, you're (they're) dead wrong, and I have statistics to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For what its worth hieghts are a little lower on 18z than 12z of nam at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is the SREFs at 87HR before the storm has even started. I know, I dont put much stock in it, I was just trying to help you to figure out what hes thinking. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREFS look like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know, I dont put much stock in it, I was just trying to help you to figure out what hes thinking. lol You didn't help at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Now at 54 heights are higher, probably will be another amped run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They might be right for this very specific type of event (which, by the way I'm not even sure I agree with), I don't look at things on a case-by-case basis enough. But if you (and they) are trying to make sweeping claims about model skill this winter overall, you're (they're) dead wrong, and I have statistics to back it up. This pattern is so amazingly difficult I wish folks would just acknowledge that. The Pacific jet is howling--and it really is like a firehose with nobody holding it. Poor analogy perhaps--but the tiny ripples in the flow break off the divergent portion of that jet streak in a turbulent fashion. This is high order stuff out in the Pacific--enough so where turbulent flow is evident in the westerly pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ellinwood, remove the stick from your rear and see that the image is deleted. lol. Should have never been there from the start. That was the first time I've posted such a thing in recent history, just to remind everyone about it. While I haven't voiced my opinion about quoting large images, I do agree with the OP's viewpoints in that thread. No need to be snappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREFS look like the GFS take a look at the .25" line near our area haven't we seen a precip signature before this year? just sayin' http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT is attacking "Mets" on this board in his latest facebook posting. Wxrisk.com*** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American saying how the GFS midwest solution could be correct... LOL... ROTLOL... ROTFLMAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 uploading key graphics is good of course from time to time, many people just hotlink them tho so they change when the model updates. For those of us born before JFK was president, what are you saying in plain English? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This pattern is so amazingly difficult I wish folks would just acknowledge that. The Pacific jet is howling--and it really is like a firehose with nobody holding it. Poor analogy perhaps--but the tiny ripples in the flow break off the divergent portion of that jet streak in a turbulent fashion. This is high order stuff out in the Pacific--enough so where turbulent flow is evident in the westerly pattern. Exactly...but this does not imply that the models as they are currently configured are doing worse than they have in the past (I assure you they aren't). This is a type of situation that has inherit predictability issues (i.e. abnormally high error/perturbation growth rates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.