yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wes likes this one. He does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did I miss something? I am assuming this is the Euro QPF? yes. it drops off really fast to the west/nw of dc/balt. tho honestly the surface temps are a bit disheartening anyway tho probably not worth focusing on hugely since every run is completely different than the last this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I-81 looks golden at this point,,,however likely to change actually I95 will do better then I81 as per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What a nightmare. First, we had to worry about a Miller B. Now we have to worry about another Dec. 26 track that keeps the heavy precip in Hampton Roads and up the Coast. Meanwhile, a few hours ago people in the Shenedoaha Valley were talking HECS. I know, still plenty of time but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes. it drops off really fast to the west/nw of dc/balt. tho honestly the surface temps are a bit disheartening anyway tho probably not worth focusing on hugely since every run is completely different than the last this season. Wow. Really incredible the swings. Last night Hagerstown was celebrating their 2 feet. Today ... wind. Just crazy. Baroclinic certainly nailed this being difficult for the models to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What a nightmare. First, we had to worry about a Miller B. Now we have to worry about another Dec. 26 track that keeps the heavy precip in Hampton Roads and up the Coast. Meanwhile, a few hours ago people in the Shenedoaha Valley were talking HECS. I know, still plenty of time but the difference this time is it will be a big rain in Ocean City instead of a boxer day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I also noticed the HP north of Minnesota that I didn't notice before. I don't really analyze the models all that much (mostly because I can't), but the surface features are certainly familiar to me. Was I missing something before? And if not, I'm assuming that HP have the effect of keeping us slightly colder and keeping the storm from a more westerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow. Really incredible the swings. Last night Hagerstown was celebrating their 2 feet. Today ... wind. Just crazy. Baroclinic certainly nailed this being difficult for the models to handle. no one should be celebrating anything but the possibility of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wes likes this one. I like the euro track but still have reservations about the storm because of the position of the high. The 12Z euro threads the needle. I'm still hesitant to jump in with both feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I wonder who DT is refering to . . . . DT is attacking "Mets" on this board in his latest facebook posting. Wxrisk.com*** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American saying how the GFS midwest solution could be correct... LOL... ROTLOL... ROTFLMAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I wonder who DT is refering to . . . . Who does he think he his? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I wonder who DT is refering to . . . . DUDE WERE PASSED THAT LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Guys.. take the DT bashing stuff to another thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I like the euro track but still have reservations about the storm because of the position of the high. The 12Z euro threads the needle. I'm still hesitant to jump in with both feet. No disagreement from me. Amazing how different each run has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Do models perform this badly every La Nina winter? I feel like Charlie Brown. The football is the weather models. And Lucy is what always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 As long as we are posting models... Extreme phase like the GGEM... JMA flopping around as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 no one should be celebrating anything but the possibility of a storm This is the most logical post today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Do models perform this badly every La Nina winter? I feel like Charlie Brown. The football is the weather models. And Lucy is what always happens. Actually, this is a pretty bad misconception [iMO]. First of all, "La Nina" doesn't necessarily mean anything in and of itself in terms of predictability....in terms of synoptic scale weather systems, say in the 3-7 day time frame (I feel it is far more important to look at other actual teleconnections). There are going to be cases every winter that are less predictable than others and this year is no exception. We have a frozen system (i.e. no upgrades) that we run regularly to gauge predictability as well as we can, and actually, the past couple of months have been much easier to predict than the long term average in the NH. The problem is that people only pay attention when potential high-impacts events come rolling around, which have a lower predictability inherit to them (this doesn't mean the models are doing worse than they were historically....in fact, they're doing much better). my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1" line from dan-ric to northen neck dc near 0.50 cho near 0.50 orf 1.75" OK.......not bad....we're gonna look back on this storm and say at one point or another NONE of the models were wrong....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 they warm up quite a bit verbatim during the day..32 line way back into pa at 18z wed when storm is due east of us. near or just west of dc/bwi prior panels. its pretty much rain everywhere, not sure why but it doesn't amplify like past runs. I know everyone is excited about the east track but we also need a more amped system because its becoming apparent the high is going to be long gone, and that lead northern stream shortwave is going to cut off the confluence and flood warm air up the coast. We now need a dynamic system that will crash heights behind it and "create the cold" as cliche as that is. Its a fine line we are walking, we need it amplified enough to do that, but not to amplified that it cuts up west. Basically the trough has to go negative and cut off at just the right time and then the low has to BOMB immediately. The euro and GFS solutions wont cut it the low is not phased enough and is totally cut off from the cold on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Somehow, I am not surprised by the euro. The whole concept that this is a "thread the needle" event for most locations is probably true. It is just good to see that the low originates in the gulf this time and a rapid deepening should support a wet snow at the very least depending on the location of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This storm is making me psychotic. Depending on what model I am looking at, I'm alternating between hoping for an east trend followed by wishing for a west trend. For the last 12 hours, I've been hoping for an east trend on the Euro. Now, I'm fearing that this storm could miss to the east as the Euro really shifted east. I will say that after seeing a wrapped up low with heavy precip on the Euro for several runs, this will be a real kick in the groin if this storm winds up too far east. (cue Mitch with seasonal trend comment). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Actually, this is a pretty bad misconception [iMO]. First of all, "La Nina" doesn't necessarily mean anything in and of itself in terms of predictability....in terms of synoptic scale weather systems, say in the 3-7 day time frame (I feel it is far more important to look at other actual teleconnections). There are going to be cases every winter that are less predictable than others and this year is no exception. We have a frozen system (i.e. no upgrades) that we run regularly to gauge predictability as well as we can, and actually, the past couple of months have been much easier to predict than the long term average in the NH. The problem is that people only pay attention when potential high-impacts events come rolling around, which have a lower predictability inherit to them (this doesn't mean the models are doing worse than they were historically....in fact, they're doing much better). my $.02 Really appreciate your excellent posts in the regional threads. I think of you as the ' myth buster'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well InAccuweather gives me 5.5 inches in my local forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well InAccuweather gives me 5.5 inches in my local forecast. Haven't you learned to not look at those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At this point, the Euro is our best hope and even that is perilous with temps. No point in obsessing about things one way or the other until we get about 24-48 hours out with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 OK.......not bad....we're gonna look back on this storm and say at one point or another NONE of the models were wrong....crazy But probably one of them has already showed us the correct solution; we just don't know it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its pretty much rain everywhere, not sure why but it doesn't amplify like past runs. I know everyone is excited about the east track but we also need a more amped system because its becoming apparent the high is going to be long gone, and that lead northern stream shortwave is going to cut off the confluence and flood warm air up the coast. We now need a dynamic system that will crash heights behind it and "create the cold" as cliche as that is. Its a fine line we are walking, we need it amplified enough to do that, but not to amplified that it cuts up west. Basically the trough has to go negative and cut off at just the right time and then the low has to BOMB immediately. The euro and GFS solutions wont cut it the low is not phased enough and is totally cut off from the cold on both models. I don't think the solution you are describing is really viable. I think we need to just irrationally hope the models are wrong on the lack of a high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't think the solution you are describing is really viable. I think we need to just irrationally hope the models are wrong on the lack of a high pressure. that would work also but were starting to get slower to a time range when the location of major high pressure is modeled a little better and its still trending in the wrong direction. That lead northern stream vort is a huge problem. As for my scenario not being viable, its not common but with the H5 track all the models agree on its possible and it does happen once in a while. I will agree the trend in the high pressure is troubling, and the storm has trended faster like we wanted but unfortunately the high has been forced out east faster and faster because a few days ago models were not taking that lead shortwave in the northern stream across in front of this storm. They were having that energy dive in more and be absorbed, instead now its sliding across in front and destroying the confluence. Just about all the models have that now so I am not sure irrationally hoping that is wrong is a good idea. Our best shot at this point is a full phase happening at the right time and a bombing low that tracks just to our east and a good back end dump as the H5 low crosses just south of us and heights crash. Thats our best chance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't think the solution you are describing is really viable. I think we need to just irrationally hope the models are wrong on the lack of a high pressure. on a somewhat positive note phin.........i have been asking around about the accuracy of the models in regards to predicting the strength and location of the all-important high and what i have come away with (as it relates to your comment) is that the models need at least another 24 hours before the depiction becomes pretty accurate so for now i'm with you in irrationally hoping the models are wrong about the high!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.