SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not bad. Plenty of them have it farther west than the OP. It may slip out still in the end, but it would give us more time. GEM 8 is absolutely classic...thats what everyone can dream unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro does more than knock on the door, it kicks it down. I am well aware, hence the southern stream needs to get stronger over the next 3-4 days on the models to get that closed 850 and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If anyone else wants to kick this Euro run while its down...look at 500mb at 168 hours and ask yourself where the surface low would probably be at...then look where it actually is.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I am well aware, hence the southern stream needs to get stronger over the next 3-4 days on the models to get that closed 850 and track. in a season where the northern stream tends to become more dominant as we close in.. good luck. the good news (i guess) is no storm in this range has ended up looking like what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 in a season where the northern stream tends to become more dominant as we close in.. good luck. the good news (i guess) is no storm in this range has ended up looking like what the models show. I LOVE optimistic IAN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 in a season where the northern stream tends to become more dominant as we close in.. good luck. the good news (i guess) is no storm in this range has ended up looking like what the models show. It's all hypothetical. Just trying to look for some positives. No need to remind any of this board how the winter has gone so far. We are all well aware, and have been reminded thousands of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If anyone else wants to kick this Euro run while its down...look at 500mb at 168 hours and ask yourself where the surface low would probably be at...then look where it actually is.......... glad you said it, i would think that thing would be much further south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 glad you said it, i would think that thing would be much further south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's all hypothetical. Just trying to look for some positives. No need to remind any of this board how the winter has gone so far. We are all well aware, and have been reminded thousands of times. i know.. back to your fantasies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i know.. back to your fantasies... Thanks right now it's all we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There is plenty of time for the models to come around. At least there is a storm threat for next week. The models that are showing a rain event are having issues at this stage and are likely not correct. Things will colder for next week's storm. Our luck has to change. Next week should be our best event of the winter so far. On the other hand, this winter has has sucked so far. Next week looks like a rain storm for the east coast. We can' t buy a decent snow event here. Things will only trend warmer for next week. Wet and warm. The models will lock into an inland track and never let go. We will never see a snow storm over 3 inches this winter. I feel better now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 glad you said it, i would think that thing would be much further south east The Euro is not having fun with this La Nina at all...it wants to progress (or not progress!) features as if we are in a very stagnant pattern like 02-03 where the ridge did not budge out of the West...hence why it has storms occurring later than many other models have been showing...the 12Z GEM I believe was a blip...ironically the GFS likely has the closest idea to what I think will happen but even it may be too slow because the lead disturbance is slowed somewhat by the one dropping into the Rockies behind it which over amplifies and tries to pull it back a bit...I would be surprised if this event occurs much past Day 5 at all....the GEM and Euro want to have it at Day 7 or 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro is not having fun with this La Nina at all...it wants to progress (or not progress!) features as if we are in a very stagnant pattern like 02-03 where the ridge did not budge out of the West...hence why it has storms occurring later than many other models have been showing...the 12Z GEM I believe was a blip...ironically the GFS likely has the closest idea to what I think will happen but even it may be too slow because the lead disturbance is slowed somewhat by the one dropping into the Rockies behind it which over amplifies and tries to pull it back a bit...I would be surprised if this event occurs much past Day 5 at all....the GEM and Euro want to have it at Day 7 or 8. cool thanks for popping in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what? JI no JMA? check out the hi location!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what? JI no JMA? check out the hi location!!!!! Shazam! (for you Gomer Pyle fans). That looks nice. JB should be twittering by now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lol, JMA would probably be a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 jma would be a huge mid atlantic hit it takes the low ots ric in 25mm dc ~22mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The JMA will never let us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 what? JI no JMA? check out the hi location!!!!! the 168 hr map, available on a pay site, has over .5" qpf for IAD/BWI and 850 temps well below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NOGAPS looks pretty nice as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NOGAPS looks pretty nice as well I'm on board - the JMA/NOGAPS combo is unbeatable. (All kidding aside, even though it got many of the details wrong, I did like how the NOGAPS was mostly vindicated on seeing a more wound up system for our last storm. It's like seeing the fat kid finally win a race, or the Redskins make the playoffs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm on board - the JMA/NOGAPS combo is unbeatable. (All kidding aside, even though it got many of the details wrong, I did like how the NOGAPS was mostly vindicated on seeing a more wound up system for our last storm. It's like seeing the fat kid finally win a race, or the Redskins make the playoffs.) Book it Danogaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lol, JMA would probably be a huge hit don't make me pull out the BOM MODEL!!!!!!!!!!! IT DESTROYS VA 35mm+ and brings in a second snow strom after this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 don't make me pull out the BOM MODEL!!!!!!!!!!! IT DESTROYS VA 35mm+ and brings in a second snow strom after this one 2nd storm 15+mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Come on Asian models??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 the psuhoffman storm is our best chance of the year...even if it mixes with rain. 5 inches of snow then rain or 1 inch of snow that last 2 hours thats what i thought. All Hail PSUhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm on board - the JMA/NOGAPS combo is unbeatable. (All kidding aside, even though it got many of the details wrong, I did like how the NOGAPS was mostly vindicated on seeing a more wound up system for our last storm. It's like seeing the fat kid finally win a race, or the Redskins make the playoffs.) I guess like the EE rule we can call it the JOGAPS rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 don't make me pull out the BOM MODEL!!!!!!!!!!! I'm ready: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I have to get back to work, but the last thing I am going to say about the 12z EC run is a repeat of a comment I made last year 7 days before the Feb 5th storm when a run of the GFS showed it changing to rain. I will take my chances with that h5 track. If the H5 prog of the euro is correct I think we will do ok. Does not mean a super blizzard or we stay all snow, but I think we would be happy with the end result with that H5 track. I will let others bicker over exactly where the surface low should be on a day 7 chart based on the H5. Euro hasn't been able to nail anything from 72 hours out this year, not sure I want to lose sleep over its 150 hour forecast right now. The threat is still there. The chance this changes to rain has always existed and is real, but its our best chance of a big snow if we get the right h5 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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