NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 84hrs 1003mb over Extreme west GA, wayy slower than the SREF mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and there is the hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, Nam is much stronger with SW and goes negative WEST of the MS. River. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 bust out the umbrellas! In all seriousness it's the long range nam. We probably won't get much consensus on this for another 24 hours. I am sticking with the mean of these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If this went further this would be a bomb somewhere on the East Coast, but Rain most likely for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow the NAM digs like crazy at the end of the run. Vort max on 500h in Mississippi while the 90h 6z GFS has in it NC. Why does it seem more likely that the GFS has it closer to correct to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I missed the euro last night,,,too much to drink. just got up and read Mount Hollys AFD, they are strongly in the Euro/Canadian camp, and mentioned based on that this event would be mostly rain for its entire FA outside the Poconos and NW NJ. so i gather the Euro was pretty toasty? NAM looks like its headed in that direction. Interesting to see how this plays out but what a shame to waste this cold airmass...too transient without any blocking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I missed the euro last night,,,too much to drink. just got up and read Mount Hollys AFD, they are strongly in the Euro/Canadian camp, and mentioned based on that this event would be mostly rain for its entire FA outside the Poconos and NE NJ. so i gather the Euro was pretty toasty? NAM looks like its headed in that direction. Interesting to see how this plays out but what a shame to waste this cold airmass...too transient without any blocking though. GGEM and Euro ensembles are all snow but the op runs would be snow-rain-snow Edit: surface on the euro torches so it would be all rain according to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Because you want snow and not rain. Yes that's part of it. Also cause we've seen several tracks more similar to the GFS recently too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well the good news with the GGEM/Euro/NAM camp is that this time the seasonal trend of more progressive and a trend north of the H5 would actually help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM solution wouldn't gain a tremendous amount of latitude thanks to the kicker right on it's heels (Just N of MN). If accurate, it would be close- and I'd want to be well west of town say in the Blue Ridge... but it might end better than many think. The NAM was pretty amped up last storm out past 72 and the verification was a less intense storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM and Euro ensembles are all snow but the op runs would be snow-rain-snow ok thanks..of course much of Mount Holly FA is east of LWX....and it appears with this storm latitude is not going to be as important. Question to be answered next couple of days is how far inland will the big snows be versus the heavy rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Are the SREFS run off GFS components? If they they are that could explain why they are in similar camps and why the SREFS isnt like the majority of guidance. The SREF system is a multi-model ensemble (there are old ETA, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and RSM members) with perturbed initial conditions. They all use the previous GFS forecast for boundary conditions just like the operational NAM does, but I'm pretty sure their "control" analysis is from the NAM (i.e. the perturbations in each IC are added to something more like that NAM analysis). The RSM (regional spectral model) is actually a perturbation model of sorts that relies on/evolves about a GFS state. I don't look closely at the individual SREF members, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if the RSM members typically looked more like the op GFS than the op NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and there is the hook Hello rain (after a little snow).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes that's part of it. Also cause we've seen several tracks more similar to the GFS recently too though. Pattern is different now than it has been. We also don't have the blocking we had previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM and Euro ensembles are all snow but the op runs would be snow-rain-snow Edit: surface on the euro torches so it would be all rain according to that yeah looking now. ouch thats really toasty. three straight days with high temps in the 20s and lows in the low teens and we could end up with windswept heavy rain...i know some think the blocking has been the issue this winter but you really take your chances in these parts without it...timing becomes soooo critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have to be honest at this point and say that I really don't care how this one turns out. Because of that, I'm following with relative disinterested in the individual runs than I am with the overall run progression. The difference between the money model this year (GFS) and the rest is astounding. Battle of wills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 that Low is headed to Cleveland on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 temperatures north of I-80. New York City could get near 0 in Central Park. No comment. Just for historical purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM solution wouldn't gain a tremendous amount of latitude thanks to the kicker right on it's heels (Just N of MN). If accurate, it would be close- and I'd want to be well west of town say in the Blue Ridge... but it might end better than many think. The NAM was pretty amped up last storm out past 72 and the verification was a less intense storm. its impossible to say but the NAM with that H5 track could be a good thump snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 temperatures north of I-80. New York City could get near 0 in Central Park. No comment. Just for historical purposes. you mean hysterical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 He puts all of his eggs in the EURO but dosen't say why. Says the GFS will fall in line with the EURO on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT OVER THE WEST WHERE AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY THU/D5 AND SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK AS RIDGING SURGES UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN ALASKA. FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST COAST WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT STRETCH OF RUNS WITH A FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE GEFS MEAN... BUT EVEN THE MEAN IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS WITH ONGOING CONTINUITY. BY WED/D4... THE 00Z UKMET POSITIONS THE LOW QUITE NICELY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER WEST BUT TRENDING A BIT TO THE EAST RECENTLY... AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAS BEEN EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST ALONG THE COAST IN RECENT RUNS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO AN INLAND RUNNER AND TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD ATLANTIC AIR TOWARD THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM MAKING FOR QUITE A MESS FROM I-81 EASTWARD... BUT THE FORECAST RAIN/SNOW LINE... AND PROBABLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AREA TOO... WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY SLOWLY BUT STEADILY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 Glad they tossed the GFS. Its actually nice to be tracking a R/S line with buckets of moisture rather than a snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One of the two camps has to break soon. Neither really shows any signs of backing down. Let's hope they meet in the middle which would be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One of the two camps has to break soon. Neither really shows any signs of backing down. Let's hope they meet in the middle which would be a nice storm. GFS/GGEM/EC ensembles all look very similar, kinda hoping they converge on that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If this pans out... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 temperatures north of I-80. New York City could get near 0 in Central Park. No comment. Just for historical hysterical purposes. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fixed I think it's a good prelim map, it is possible that we get a big storm, what remains to be seen is p type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like the 12z GFS is going to be slower with the engery in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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