Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fishy storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREF's look A LOT more like a progressive GFS solution than the other camp let the change begin at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fishy storm? yes based on 700mb RH map http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_70r_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fishy storm? Looks a lot quicker too IMO, 2m looks a little too warm, Mid to upper 30s in the last few frames while 850mb is like -3c, going off PSU. EDIT:Maybe not a lot quicker, it was 24hrs or so faster than ECMWF, but still, a faster solution would mean colder temps and less time to phase, so SLP track makes sense here, but surface temps dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREF shows an average of 0.25-0.50QPF in the Mid Atlantic, RSM members look the most wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z gfs vs the 6z ukie gfs ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z gfs vs the 6z ukie gfs ukie Pretty big difference. Perhaps a blend of the two wouldn't work out so badly for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What is the latest on this storm ? Is this good or bad for the MA? Dude, seriously? Just read the forum and the last thread on this. All your answers are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah SREF looks east with the highs, but take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dude, seriously? Just read the forum and the last thread on this. All your answers are there. I got tired of reading the thread where everybody was calling everyone else a weenie. I didn't want to weed through 1000+ posts to find the one or two that actually gave a meaningful post. I thought I would cut to the chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 9z RSM is an 1-83 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah SREF looks east with the highs, but take it with a grain of salt. the trend, its the trend remember, there's no real blocking to the N and blocking is what pushes it south and slows it the deep trough solutions will be loosing favor today imho that's all I'll say because if I said the rest of what I really thought of what this is morphing to, I might get banished to the NE forum for the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the trend, its the trend remember, there's no real blocking to the N and blocking is what pushes it south and slows it the deep trough solutions will be loosing favor today imho that's all I'll say because if I said the rest of what I really thought of what this is morphing to, I might get banished to the NE forum for the rest of the winter fair enough and you may be right, but just so people do not the the wrong idea about the "trend" the 6z GFS is actually a good bit south again with its H5 track. It was a step back off the ledge. Surface differences were minor. I expect in the end a blend between the deep trough all the way to the gulf and the more shallow one of the GFS is going to be reality. THis could also be a good solution for our area. The deep trough is nice to look at but it has been leading to an early amplifying system that tends to flood our area with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 do you ever sleep? not much last night for some reason happens when you get old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Haven't the srefs been awful this year, especially at this range? Seems premature to consider this a trend. Seems there are two camps with the models; take a blend and we have a good solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12 NAM is not digging the energy into the SW as much-- its not as bad as the GFS but its a shift from the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Maybe better stated the energy isn't as strong in the SW> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Uh oh! Could the GFS be making a statement. Would be pretty impressive to be the outlier and be right. It will be interesting to see what happens with all the 12z model runs. Maybe better stated the energy isn't as strong in the SW> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is still diving energy in west and 6 hours slower then the GFS but not as much as before. The GFS on the other hand trended a little deeper at 6z. It appears the two are converging on a middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Maybe better stated the energy isn't as strong in the SW> thats the first insignificant wave that washes out, the nam is actually digging the main trough a little deeper out west at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Uh oh! Could the GFS be making a statement. Would be pretty impressive to be the outlier and be right. It will be interesting to see what happens with all the 12z model runs. It seems like the second piece dropping in is just as good-- so I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 72hrs 1010mb in Southern LA 75hrs sub 1012mb over New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the differences between the GFS and NAM at 60 hours are comical. They had converged some early on but now the NAM is digging the hell out of the trough again where at this time the GFS is racing it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 78hrs 1007mb near Mobile AL, NAM and SREF mean look NOTHING alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is toasty at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 2-contoured 500H closed low NE of Maine at 60h opens up at 66h. EDIT- closes off again at 72h, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Are the SREFS run off GFS components? If they they are that could explain why they are in similar camps and why the SREFS isnt like the majority of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is toasty at 78 that's headed to the GL it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nam would bring this thing way inland 500 is about to hook and bring up oh well on to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jeez! Could these two models be any different? Gonna be interesting to see 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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